ACTIVE TACTICAL AVIATION (HIGH): RF forces have initiated fresh KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches targeting the Donetsk region (0153Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
CLAIMS OF UAF MANPOWER STRIKE (UNCONFIRMED): Russian MoD claims to have "surprised" a large concentration of UAF manpower. No specific location or BDA provided (0139Z, TASS, LOW).
REPORTED UAF RESTRUCTURING (UNCONFIRMED): RF mil-bloggers report significant organizational and staff structure changes within the UAF occurring throughout December (0203Z, Colonelcassad, LOW).
RF DOMESTIC STABILITY (HIGH): Official reporting from the Russian Far East (Khabarovsk) continues with routine administrative digests, suggesting no internal security spillover from western operations (0201Z, Khabarovsk Police, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains centered on the Donetsk axis, where RF forces are leveraging tactical aviation to exploit perceived vulnerabilities. The battlefield geometry is currently defined by UAF's efforts to stabilize the Siversk and Pokrovsk sectors following recent command turnover and territorial pressure. Weather conditions remain conducive to KAB usage, provided RF airframes can maintain standoff distances.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: The RF is maintaining a high sorties rate for tactical aviation (Su-34/35) to deploy KABs on the Donetsk front (0153Z). This is likely intended to suppress UAF defensive positions ahead of mechanized pushes.
Information Operations: The TASS report (0139Z) regarding a strike on a "large concentration" of UAF troops follows a standard RF pattern of disseminating "high-casualty" narratives during critical diplomatic windows (e.g., the 1800Z Zelensky-Trump meeting) to project an image of UAF tactical fragility.
Logistics: The surge in artillery/missile logistics noted in the 24h summary (2652nd Base) is likely now feeding the increased KAB and UAV activity observed in the current window.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF Air Force remains active in providing early warning for aerial threats. The reported "organizational changes" (0203Z) may refer to the integration of fresh reserves or the consolidation of brigades (like the 54th and 10th) that recently underwent leadership changes to prevent a Siversk salient collapse.
Tactical Successes/Setbacks: The Donetsk region is under sustained pressure. The lack of specific BDA from the RF's claimed strike on UAF concentrations (0139Z) suggests that if an engagement occurred, it may have been mitigated by UAF dispersal tactics.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda: RF state media is focused on domestic stability (Far East reports) and battlefield "surprises."
Dempster-Shafer Support: Current beliefs show a moderate focus on military actions in Donetsk (0.27) and domestic RF incidents (0.25). This aligns with a bifurcated RF strategy: maintaining "business as usual" at home while intensifying pressure on the Ukrainian front.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB strikes through the early morning hours to soften the FEBA in the Donetsk region, specifically targeting UAF supply routes and C2 nodes near the T0513 GLOC.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF tactical aviation successfully coordinates with the Pavlohrad-bound UAVs (noted in previous sitrep) to conduct a multi-vector strike on UAF logistics hubs, coinciding with a mechanized breakthrough attempt in the Siversk sector before the 1800Z diplomatic summit.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued high-intensity aerial bombardment in the Donetsk sector. The 0200Z-0600Z window is critical for UAF AD and electronic warfare units to counter KAB launches and loitering munitions. The tactical situation in Siversk remains the primary ground concern; any structural reorganization within the UAF must be completed rapidly to ensure defensive cohesion.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Confirmation of RF Strike Claims: Verify if any significant UAF manpower concentrations were targeted in the last 2 hours and assess BDA.
KAB Launch Platforms: Identify the specific airbases supporting the current KAB launches in Donetsk to facilitate potential counter-battery or long-range drone strikes.
Siversk Defensive Integrity: Obtain real-time status of the T0513 GLOC following the reported KAB strikes.
