CONFIRMED DIPLOMATIC TIMELINE (HIGH): Russian state media and the White House have confirmed a high-stakes meeting between President Zelensky and Donald Trump, scheduled for 1800Z (21:00 Moscow Time) today (0122Z, TASS, HIGH).
EXPANSION OF ENERGY NARRATIVE (MEDIUM): RF information operations have pivoted to highlighting energy insecurity in the Baltics, claiming regional gas storage is 50% depleted. This indicates a broadening of the "energy terror" narrative beyond Ukraine to pressure NATO allies (0133Z, Colonelcassad/Gazprom, MEDIUM).
IMMINENT AERIAL THREAT - PAVLOHRAD (HIGH): Loitering munitions (Geran/Shahed) are within 30-90 minutes of the Pavlohrad terminal area. Air defense engagement is expected imminently (Carry-over/UAF AF, HIGH).
BALTIC ENERGY DISINFORMATION (UNCONFIRMED): Claims regarding Baltic gas depletion currently lack independent corroboration and are assessed as a targeted psychological operation (0133Z, Colonelcassad, LOW).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly dictated by the diplomatic clock in Washington. The battlefield geometry remains fixed in a high-attrition state, but the strategic focus has shifted to the 1800Z meeting. Environmental factors (sub-zero temperatures) are being weaponized via the ongoing RF campaign against Naftogaz infrastructure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: The RF is maintaining tactical pressure on the Siversk-Kupyansk axis to provide a "failure narrative" that coincides with Zelensky’s US visit.
Hybrid Operations: The sudden focus on Baltic gas storage (0133Z) suggests the RF is attempting to induce panic in European energy markets, likely to weaken the unified Western stance during the US-Ukraine negotiations.
Course of Action (COA) - Kinetic: RF long-range aviation and missile carriers are likely being positioned for a "demonstration strike" to occur near the 1800Z meeting time to overshadow the diplomatic outcome.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF units in Siversk are in a critical "transition and stabilize" phase following the relief of the 54th and 10th Brigade commanders. Current focus is preventing a mechanized breakthrough toward the T0513 GLOC.
Air Defense: Mobile groups are active in the Pavlohrad and Dnipro sectors. Strategic AD assets (Patriot/NASAMS) are likely being conserved/repositioned to protect remaining Naftogaz pumping nodes.
Readiness: High alert status maintained across the Northern Border and Kyiv to counter potential "synchronicity strikes" during the US diplomatic window.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Narratives: RF media is bifurcating its messaging: trivializing domestic news for the RF public while aggressively promoting "European energy collapse" (Baltic gas claims) to international audiences.
Cognitive Domain: Dempster-Shafer analysis (Belief: 0.60) suggests a high expectation of a formal US-Ukraine agreement. The RF is actively attempting to preempt this with disinformation regarding donor fatigue and regional instability.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify artillery and FPV pressure in the Druzhkivka/Kramatork rear areas to disrupt UAF logistics while executing the Pavlohrad UAV strike.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF executes a massed Kalibr/Kh-101 strike on Kyiv's heating infrastructure at 1800Z (the exact time of the Trump-Zelensky meeting) to create a maximum-impact "humiliation" scenario for the diplomatic initiative.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of kinetic escalation between 0200Z and 0400Z (Pavlohrad UAV window). A period of relative tactical "lull" or standard attrition is expected mid-day, followed by a major spike in both kinetic and information operations at 1800Z during the confirmed US-Ukraine meeting.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Baltic Infrastructure Verification: Confirm actual status of Inčukalns (Latvia) gas storage to debunk or validate RF claims of 50% depletion.
Siversk FEBA Status: Obtain drone imagery of the high ground around Siversk to confirm if the 54th/10th Brigade replacements have successfully stabilized the line.
Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Sortie Status: Monitor for Kalibr-capable vessels exiting Novorossiysk, which would indicate timing for the predicted 1800Z demonstration strike.
