ATTRITION NARRATIVE IN KUPYANSK (UNCONFIRMED): Russian state media reports high attrition rates among "elite" UAF units in the Kupyansk sector. This aligns with recent RF claims of total control over the city, likely intended to degrade UAF morale (2308Z, TASS, LOW).
INTERNATIONAL HYBRID THREAT: Italian law enforcement has dismantled a financial network utilizing charitable foundations to fund Hamas. While non-kinetic, this highlights ongoing volatility in the broader security architecture of UAF partners (2308Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
CONTINUED AIR THREAT (HIGH): OWA-UAV (Shahed) threats toward Myrhorod remain active as of the previous hour; no impact assessments yet available (Ref: 2303Z Sitrep, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains critical across three primary axes. The Kupyansk sector is currently the focus of an intensive Russian information operation—and likely a corresponding kinetic push—aimed at depicting a collapse of high-readiness UAF units. In the Pokrovsk sector, the tactical situation remains dire following the reported loss of Myrnohrad (2253Z). The Siversk sector remains in a state of high uncertainty following the removal of senior UAF leadership; visual confirmation of the current Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) is still pending.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Kupyansk Strategy: RF forces are shifting their narrative from simple territorial gain to "unit destruction." By claiming the neutralization of "elite" units, the RF aims to create a perception of a depleted UAF strategic reserve.
Information Operations: The RF is effectively synchronizing tactical advances (Kupyansk/Myrnohrad) with high-level diplomatic signaling (Lavrov's EU comments) to portray a "fait accompli" regarding Ukrainian defensive capabilities.
Capabilities: RF continues to demonstrate a high degree of integration between OWA-UAV strikes on rear-tier logistics (Myrhorod) and frontline pressure.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Kupyansk Posture: UAF appears to have committed high-readiness ("elite") units to prevent a total breakthrough on the Oskil River line. The intensity of combat in this sector indicates a high expenditure of personnel and munitions.
C2 Status: Command stability in the Siversk sector remains the primary internal risk factor. The transition to interim leadership in the 10th and 54th Brigades is likely ongoing under combat conditions.
Resource Constraints: Increased RF focus on Naftogaz infrastructure (Daily Report 1500Z) suggests a growing logistical burden on UAF to maintain heating and power for frontline repair shops and personnel.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Propaganda: TASS and other RF-aligned channels are prioritizing the "Kupyansk collapse" narrative. Analysis suggests this is intended to counteract any domestic Russian concerns regarding the cost of the offensive by highlighting Ukrainian losses.
International/Hybrid: The exposure of Hamas funding in Italy serves as a reminder of the complex multi-domain threat environment; UAF intelligence should monitor for any links between RF-aligned shadow financial networks and broader regional instability.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity shelling and localized ground assaults in Kupyansk to fix "elite" UAF units in place, while simultaneously exploiting the C2 vacuum in Siversk to seize high ground west of the city.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed UAF withdrawal from the Kupyansk urban center, coupled with the fall of Myrnohrad, triggers a broader defensive retrograde toward the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk line, abandoning prepared winter positions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued high-volume Russian reporting on UAF casualties in Kupyansk to facilitate a psychological breakthrough. High probability of additional OWA-UAV waves targeting Myrhorod and energy nodes in central Ukraine during the pre-dawn hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kupyansk FEBA: Urgent need for geolocated imagery to confirm the extent of RF penetration into the urban center and the status of "elite" UAF unit dispositions.
Siversk Integrity: Monitor for signals of uncoordinated UAF unit movements that would indicate a breakdown in the new interim command structure.
Logistics BDA: Assess the impact of any recent strikes on Myrhorod airbase or surrounding transit hubs.
