REPORTED FALL OF MYRNOHRAD (DIMITROV) (MEDIUM): Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have seized the city of Myrnohrad (Dimitrov). Video evidence and mapping data suggests Russian forces have consolidated control across multiple urban blocks (2253Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
SIVERSK STATUS DETERIORATION (UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources now claim the total loss of Siversk by Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), following the previously reported dismissal of the 10th and 54th Brigade commanders for "false reporting" (2236Z, Операция Z, LOW).
AIR THREAT TO MYRHOROD (HIGH): UAF Air Force confirms OWA-UAV (Shahed-type) movement toward Myrhorod from the northeast (2303Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
UGV ENGAGEMENT IN SUMY (MEDIUM): Russian VDV units report destroying a Ukrainian Ground Robotic Complex (NRTC) in the Sumy direction, noting an increase in UAF robotic platform deployment (2303Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC RHETORIC ESCALATION (HIGH): Foreign Minister Lavrov formally labeled Europe as the "main obstacle to peace" and accused the EU of preparing for direct war with the RF (2249Z, TASS, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from a localized C2 crisis to a potential systemic failure on two critical axes. In the Pokrovsk sector, the reported fall of Myrnohrad removes a major defensive anchor, potentially unhinging the defense of Pokrovsk itself. In the Siversk sector, the situation has shifted from "crisis" to a reported "loss," though visual confirmation of a total UAF withdrawal from the city center is still lacking. Meanwhile, the Sumy sector is seeing increased technical friction with the deployment of UAF ground robots (UGVs) being countered by Russian drone/VDV elements.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: RF forces (specifically the Center Group) are demonstrating an ability to rapidly transition from urban probing to city-clearing operations in Myrnohrad. The speed of the claimed capture suggests UAF defensive lines may have been bypassed or were under-strength following recent repositioning.
Tactical Adaptations: RF units are actively hunting UAF UGVs in the North, identifying them as "drone magnets." This suggests RF is prioritizing the destruction of Ukrainian technical innovations before they can reach operational scale.
Strategic Information Operations (IO): The Lavrov interview indicates a shift toward framing the conflict as a broader "Russia vs. Europe" struggle, likely aimed at domestic mobilization and international deterrence.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Siversk Posture: If reports of the city's loss are accurate, UAF forces are likely attempting a retrograde to the high ground west of the Siversky Donets. The breakdown in reporting identified in the previous sitrep appears to have had catastrophic tactical consequences.
Technological Deployment: UAF is increasing the use of UGVs on the Sumy axis to maintain presence while minimizing personnel exposure. However, RF feedback indicates these platforms currently suffer from mobility issues ("getting stuck") and high visibility to EW/UAVs.
Air Defense: Resources remain stretched as OWA-UAVs continue to penetrate toward critical nodes like Myrhorod, likely targeting the airbase or local infrastructure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda: RF sources are aggressively capitalizing on the "false reporting" scandal within UAF leadership to characterize the entire Ukrainian defense as a "house of cards" based on lies to the High Command.
Diplomatic: The TASS-distributed Lavrov interview serves as a formal signaling mechanism to Western capitals, intending to increase the political cost of continued military support.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will consolidate Myrnohrad and use it as a jump-off point for a multi-pronged assault on Pokrovsk from the east and northeast within 24-48 hours. In Siversk, RF will attempt to establish a bridgehead across the river to prevent UAF from reforming a line.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The collapse in Myrnohrad triggers a wider panic in the Pokrovsk garrison, leading to an uncoordinated withdrawal that allows RF mechanized units to reach the T0504 highway before secondary defenses are manned.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect confirmed reports regarding the status of Siversk. If the city has indeed fallen, the Siversk salient is effectively liquidated, and the front will shift toward the Lyman-Slovyansk-Kramatork line. High probability of continued drone strikes on Myrhorod and surrounding logistics hubs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Siversk FEBA: Urgent need for satellite or drone reconnaissance to confirm if RF forces have established permanent positions in the Siversk city center.
Myrnohrad Perimeter: Determine if UAF retains control of the slag heaps or industrial zones on the western outskirts of Myrnohrad.
UGV Vulnerabilities: Analyze the specific failure points of the NRTCs in Sumy (EW susceptibility vs. mechanical failure) to improve survivability in future deployments.
