HULIAIPOLE REPORTED CAPTURED (HIGH): Prominent Russian mil-bloggers (Rybar/Voin DV) claim Russian forces have seized Huliaipole ("Motherland of Makhno"), indicating a likely collapse of the local UAF defensive line (2233Z, Воин DV, HIGH).
SIVERSK C2 CRISIS ESCALATION (HIGH): Further confirmation regarding the relief of 10th and 54th Brigade commanders. Reports now specify the cause as "systematic false reporting" to the General Staff, which obscured the true tactical situation (2223Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
DEEP STRIKE ON RU ENERGY (MEDIUM): UAF OWA-UAVs successfully targeted the Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast (~800km from the border), indicating sustained long-range strike capabilities despite winter conditions (2222Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM).
OFFENSIVE PRESSURE NEAR ZAKOTNE (MEDIUM): RF forces are conducting active offensive operations along the Seversky Donets River, specifically targeting the Zakotne area to further isolate the Siversk salient (2218Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR THREAT RECEDES (HIGH): Air raid alerts in the Zaporizhzhia region have been cleared, though the ground situation remains critical (2215Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational situation has deteriorated significantly in two key sectors: Siversk and Huliaipole. The loss of Huliaipole represents a major breach in the Zaporizhzhia defensive line, potentially opening a path toward the wider regional envelope. In the Siversk sector, a "reporting crisis" has paralyzed effective response, with Russian forces now pushing toward Zakotne to exploit the command vacuum. In the strategic rear, UAF continues to prioritize Russian oil refinement (Syzran) to offset the ongoing RF campaign against Ukrainian gas infrastructure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: RF forces are moving with high tactical momentum in the South. The capture of Huliaipole suggests the Vostok Group has successfully navigated the C2 friction identified in earlier reports. In the East, RF is utilizing the "Seversky Donets" river line to pin UAF forces while exploiting the leadership transition in the 10th and 54th Brigades.
Tactical Adaptations: RF is increasingly focusing on the "integrity of reporting" within UAF, likely using EW and localized probes to create discrepancies between front-line reality and General Staff maps.
Strategic Targets: The RF domestic focus remains on labor stability (2026 calendar updates), suggesting a long-term mobilization posture that avoids immediate domestic "six-day week" shocks.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Command and Control (C2):CRITICAL VULNERABILITY. The relief of two brigade commanders in Siversk for "false reporting" indicates a breakdown in the professional military chain of communication. This "reporting gap" likely delayed the deployment of reserves, leading to the current crisis near Zakotne.
Zaporizhzhia Posture: Following the reported loss of Huliaipole, UAF units in the sector must establish a new blocking line to prevent a rapid RF advance toward Stepnohirsk or Orikhiv.
Strategic Assets: UAF continues to demonstrate high-end OWA-UAV proficiency, penetrating deep into the Samara region.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian IO: RF sources are heavily emphasizing the "liberation" of Huliaipole and mocking UAF internal reporting failures. This is designed to degrade trust between UAF field units and the High Command.
Domestic RU: State media (TASS) is projecting a "business as usual" image for 2026 to mask the strain of the ongoing winter offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will consolidate Huliaipole and immediately begin probing for gaps toward the T0803 highway. In Siversk, RF will attempt to seize Zakotne within the next 12 hours to physically sever the northern escape/supply route of the salient.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The C2 failure in Siversk triggers a wider uncoordinated retreat across the entire Donetsk-Luhansk border, allowing RF to bypass the Siversky Donets defenses entirely and threaten Lyman from the southeast.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Ground operations will intensify around Zakotne. UAF must stabilize the reporting chain in the East immediately or risk the total encirclement of the Siversk group. In the South, the loss of Huliaipole necessitates an immediate reassessment of the Zaporizhzhia defense depth.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole FEBA: Confirm if UAF has established a secondary line of defense west of Huliaipole or if the withdrawal is continuing.
Siversk Integrity: Determine the current effective strength of the 10th and 54th Brigades following the command purge.
Syzran BDA: Assess the degree of damage to the Syzran refinery to determine the impact on RF fuel logistics for the Vostok Group.
