C2 FRICTION IN HULIAIPOLE (MEDIUM): Internal friction within UAF command emerged as Manko, head of the Assault Troops, publicly distanced his units from responsibility for the Huliaipole sector amidst Russian advances (2144Z, Шеф Hayabusa, MEDIUM).
RDK COMMANDER DEATH CONFIRMED (HIGH): Prominent Ukrainian-aligned Russian volunteer commander Denys Nikitin (White Rex) is confirmed KIA, likely impacting volunteer unit cohesion (2148Z, DeepState, HIGH).
MYRHOROD UAV THREAT PERSISTS (HIGH): New UAV vector detected approaching Myrhorod from the east, suggesting a multi-directional "pincher" or circling flight path for OWA-UAVs (2157Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR ALERTS (HIGH): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration issued an emergency alert, likely corresponding to proximity of RF forces to Stepnohirsk or Huliaipole outskirts (2146Z, Zaporizhzhia OВА, HIGH).
REAR AREA INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT (MEDIUM): Russian sources claim Ukrainian tactical mapping and open-source intelligence (OSINT) are being degraded by power outages, potentially slowing UAF internal situational awareness (2157Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
REGIONAL DEFENSE (STRATEGIC): Reports indicate Poland is accelerating its multi-year defensive fortification project along its eastern border in response to Russian aggression (2149Z, Operatsiya Z/The Guardian, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high despite severe weather conditions (blizzard) in Northern and Central Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia sector is currently the center of gravity for ground operations, with the status of Huliaipole remaining the primary point of contention. The battlefield geometry in this sector is increasingly fluid, exacerbated by conflicting reports regarding Area of Responsibility (AOR) boundaries within the UAF command structure. In the air domain, RF continues to utilize OWA-UAVs to probe and saturate air defenses in Myrhorod and Odesa.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: RF forces (Vostok Group) are exploiting the "fog of war" generated by both the blizzard and tactical successes in Huliaipole to push further into the Ukrainian depth. The shift in UAV approach vectors (from North to East toward Myrhorod) suggests an adaptive flight path designed to bypass established AA corridors.
Information Operations: RF sources (Colonelcassad) are weaponizing the domestic energy crisis to mock UAF operational capabilities, specifically targeting the speed of Ukrainian cartography and tactical updates.
Strategic Posture: The RF continues to fix UAF attention on the southern front while maintaining pressure on rear infrastructure, aiming for a total collapse of the heating/logistical grid during the current blizzard.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Command and Control (C2):CRITICAL CONCERN. The public statement by Commander Manko (Assault Troops) regarding the Huliaipole sector indicates a potential breakdown in unified command or a dispute over AOR boundaries. This public "buck-passing" during a defensive crisis is a high-risk indicator of fractured cohesion.
Force Posture: The confirmation of Denys Nikitin's death (RDK) creates a leadership vacuum in the Russian volunteer units. While localized, these units often hold key high-intensity sectors, and their morale may be impacted in the 6-12h window.
Resource Constraints: The blizzard in Kyiv (2138Z, Sternenko) is likely hindering the dispatch of strategic reserves to stabilize the southern sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Internal Friction: The emergence of tactical-level TikTok updates from commanders (Manko) criticizing AOR assignments provides the RF with significant exploitable intelligence regarding UAF seams and boundaries.
Psychological Operations: The "lights out" narrative regarding Ukrainian mappers (2157Z, Colonelcassad) is designed to project a sense of inevitability and technological superiority during the winter offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will exploit the identified C2 seams near Huliaipole to push toward Stepnohirsk (as indicated by the OBA alert). They will use the lack of clear UAF sectoral responsibility to infiltrate small mechanized groups into the gaps between units.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A command-wide disagreement over the Huliaipole sector leads to an uncoordinated withdrawal, allowing RF forces to seize Stepnohirsk and establish fire control over the main supply routes to the Zaporizhzhia city envelope within the next 12 hours.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued Russian tactical gains in the Huliaipole-Stepnohirsk corridor. Expect continued OWA-UAV strikes on Myrhorod and Poltava oblast. The internal UAF command dispute regarding the Huliaipole sector must be resolved by General Staff immediately to prevent a cascading failure of the Southern front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sector Responsibility: Clarification of which UAF command (Southern Defense Forces vs. Assault Troops) currently holds the tactical FEBA west of Huliaipole.
UAV Vectoring: Determine if the "Eastern" approach to Myrhorod indicates a new launch site in the Sumy/Belgorod border region or simply a looping flight path.
Stepnohirsk Readiness: Assess current fortification status and troop density in Stepnohirsk following the Zaporizhzhia OBA alert.
