HULIAIPOLE CLAIMED CAPTURE (MEDIUM): Russian sources (Sasha Kots/Starshe Eddy) claim the "complete capture" of Huliaipole. UAF Southern Defense Forces have issued an official statement regarding the situation in Huliaipole and Stepnohirsk, though specific contents are not detailed (2110Z, 2107Z, Starshe Eddy/Tsaplienko).
MYRNOHRAD URBAN BREAKTHROUGH (MEDIUM): Rybar-affiliated sources report Russian "Center" group forces have penetrated the city center of Myrnohrad as of late December 27 (2121Z, Rybar).
ODESA DRONE STRIKE (HIGH): A Russian UAV strike has caused a fire in a residential building in Odesa following an approach from the Black Sea (2131Z, Tsaplienko/PS ZSU).
AERIAL THREAT TO MYRHOROD (HIGH): UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV inbound to Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast) from the north (2131Z, PS ZSU).
LOGISTICAL WEATHER CONSTRAINT (HIGH): A major blizzard is currently impacting Kyiv, with 124 units of specialized equipment deployed for road maintenance (2132Z, RBK-UA).
INTERDICTION OF PRECISION ASSETS (LOW): Russian sources claim a successful strike on a "GLS" (likely Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb or similar high-value system) near the Line of Contact (2110Z, Kotsnews).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational situation has deteriorated in the Southern (Zaporizhzhia) and Eastern (Pokrovsk) sectors over the last 120 minutes. The Russian Federation (RF) is aggressively pushing a narrative of "strategic initiative" (as per Foreign Minister Lavrov). Battlefield geometry is shifting rapidly in Huliaipole, which RF now claims to fully control, potentially unhinging the defensive line between Zaporizhzhia and the Donetsk administrative border. In Myrnohrad, urban combat has likely transitioned from the outskirts to the city center. Environmental conditions (blizzards in the north/center, sub-zero temperatures) are becoming a primary operational factor for logistics and sustainment.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: RF forces are prioritizing the seizure of key urban hubs (Myrnohrad, Huliaipole) before the end of the calendar year to solidify a "position of strength" narrative. The use of one-way attack (OWA) UAVs against Odesa and Myrhorod indicates a persistent effort to fix UAF Air Defense (AD) assets in the rear.
Tactical Adaptations: RF is pairing tactical ground gains with high-level diplomatic messaging (Lavrov/TASS) to demoralize Ukrainian leadership and domestic audiences. The targeting of "GLS" assets suggests a focused counter-battery/interdiction campaign against UAF precision strike capabilities.
Logistics/Sustainment: While the blizzard in Kyiv hampers UAF movement, the previously noted ammo surge at the 2652nd Artillery Base suggests RF has the munitions depth to continue high-intensity fires despite the weather.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF forces in the South are in a crisis-management phase; the Southern Defense Forces' statement (2107Z) suggests a reactive posture to the Russian advance in Huliaipole.
Tactical Successes: Continued monitoring and early warning by the UAF Air Force regarding UAV vectors (Odesa/Myrhorod) remain effective, although the hit in Odesa indicates AD saturation or penetration.
Resource Constraints: Heavy snowfall in Kyiv and the surrounding regions will likely slow the movement of reserves and logistical resupply to the Northern and Eastern fronts.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic IO: RF is utilizing TASS and senior officials (Lavrov) to frame the 2025 year-end as a total Russian victory ("strategic initiative").
Counter-IO: Ukrainian activists (Sternenko) are circulating video confessions of Wagner mercenaries detailing war crimes (2104Z), a clear attempt to maintain international focus on RF atrocities and degrade Russian military prestige.
Contested Narratives: The status of Huliaipole remains the primary information flashpoint; RF claims "complete capture" while UAF maintains a "contested" posture via official statements.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will attempt to consolidate Huliaipole and immediately push west toward Stepnohirsk to threaten the wider Zaporizhzhia defensive envelope. In Myrnohrad, RF will use "Center" group units to clear the city center and push UAF toward the final defensive lines in Pokrovsk.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A simultaneous breakthrough in Myrnohrad and a collapse in the Huliaipole-Stepnohirsk sector, combined with the "Naftogaz" targeting (identified in daily report) and the blizzard, causes a systemic failure of both the tactical front and the civilian heating/logistics grid in the next 12 hours.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The window for stabilizing the Huliaipole sector is closing; expect intensive UAF counter-attacks or a confirmed retrograde to the next defensive tier. Aerial activity (UAVs) will likely persist over Poltava and Odesa oblasts. Weather will significantly degrade drone-corrected artillery and FPV operations in the North/Center.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole FEBA: Immediate confirmation needed—does UAF retain any presence in the western industrial outskirts of Huliaipole, or is the withdrawal complete?
Stepnohirsk Defense: Assess the readiness of the Stepnohirsk garrison to receive a direct mechanized assault following the Huliaipole shift.
Myrnohrad Center: Geolocate Rybar's "center of the city" claims to identify if the UAF main line of resistance (MLR) has fractured or shifted to a street-by-street delay.
