MYRNOHRAD (DIMYTROV) TACTICAL CRISIS (MEDIUM): Russian sources have released footage of flag-raising ceremonies and claimed organized surrenders of UAF personnel within city limits (2040Z, 2051Z, Mash na Donbasse/Operatsiya Z).
HULIAIPOLE STATUS CONTESTED (MEDIUM): Pro-Russian channels are declaring the "liberation" of Huliaipole (2059Z, Colonelcassad). The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) has officially characterized these claims as fabricated "successes" (2046Z, RBC-UA).
MASS UAV INTERCEPTION OVER RF/AZOV (HIGH): Russian MoD claims the destruction of 43 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions and the Sea of Azov within a three-hour window (2036Z, TASS).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT OF ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): UAF Air Force confirms multiple launches of KAB (guided aerial bombs) targeting the Zaporizhzhia direction (2039Z, PS ZSU).
IO CAMPAIGN TARGETING VOLUNTEER CORPS (LOW): Russian sources are circulating claims of a high-profile assassination ("Legendary Said") following the confirmed KIA of "White Rex," likely aimed at destabilizing volunteer formations (2040Z, Alex Parker Returns).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has surged in the last 120 minutes, particularly in the cognitive and tactical domains. The battlefield geometry in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector is increasingly blurred; while Kyiv maintains a firm official denial of the city's fall, the emergence of "flag-planting" visuals and prisoner-of-war (POW) footage suggests Russian penetration into core urban districts. In the South, the Huliaipole sector has transitioned from "infiltration" to claimed "occupation," though UAF official channels are aggressively counter-messaging this. Weather remains a factor, with sub-zero temperatures likely increasing the vulnerability of units in static defensive positions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: RF forces are employing a "Rapid Consolidation" tactic—immediately filming flag-raisings and surrenders to create an image of inevitability. The use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia suggests they are softening the rear of the Huliaipole-Stepnohirsk line to prevent UAF reinforcements from stabilizing the front.
Tactical Adaptations: RF is successfully integrating tactical gains with immediate Information Operations (IO). The claim of 43 downed UAVs indicates a high state of readiness in Russian regional Air Defense (AD) following the previous 24h of saturation attacks.
Logistics/Sustainment: The mention of hitting a "GLS" (potentially GLSDB or high-value logistical asset) near the FLOT (2057Z, Starshiy Eddy) indicates active RF counter-battery and interdiction of UAF precision strike capabilities.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is in a state of high-intensity defensive IO. The CPD’s dismissal of Russian claims (2046Z) serves to prevent panic, but tactical reports suggest significant pressure on the Myrnohrad garrison.
Tactical Successes: The sustained drone campaign into Russian territory continues to force RF to maintain a "red level" threat posture in border regions like Lipetsk (2103Z, Artamonov), diverting AD assets from the front.
Resource Constraints: The call for urgent support/fundraising ("rusoriz") by prominent activists (2035Z, Sternenko) suggests a critical need for tactical attrition assets (FPVs/drones) to stem the mechanized advance in the East.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Deception: We are observing a "Reality Gap" between official UAF statements and pro-Russian visual evidence. The CPD is framing RF gains as "fables," while RF sources provide geolocated (though unverified) "proof of presence."
Psychological Operations: The targeting of high-profile figures (Kapustin/Said) is a deliberate attempt to degrade the morale of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and other non-standard formations holding key sectors.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to utilize urban combat footage from Myrnohrad to induce a localized UAF retrograde toward Pokrovsk. In the South, RF will attempt to pivot from Huliaipole toward Stepnohirsk to widen the breach in the Zaporizhzhia defensive line.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed total collapse of the Myrnohrad defense allows RF to bypass the main Pokrovsk fortifications from the North, potentially trapping UAF elements in a pocket while simultaneous KAB strikes degrade the ability to maneuver reserves.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Critical window for Myrnohrad; if UAF does not provide counter-visuals of presence in the city center, the "loss of control" narrative will likely become a tactical reality. Expect continued KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and potential "carpet" plan activations at Russian airports if UAF launches a second wave of UAVs tonight.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad FEBA: Need immediate geolocation of the "flag-raising" video (2040Z) to determine the depth of RF penetration.
POW Verification: Verify the authenticity and unit affiliation of personnel claimed to have surrendered in Myrnohrad (2051Z).
Huliaipole Ground Truth: Confirm if UAF units have maintained the "high ground" outside the city or if a full withdrawal has occurred.
