CONTRADICTORY CLAIMS ON MYRNOHRAD/HULIAIPOLE (MEDIUM): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GS AFU) has issued multiple official denials (2011Z, 2014Z, 2030Z, GS AFU) refuting Russian claims regarding the capture of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole, labeling them as Kremlin disinformation.
RODINSKE CAPTURE CLAIMED (UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Pro-Russian sources have released video footage claiming the "liberation" of Rodinske (northwest of Myrnohrad), asserting "objective control" over the settlement (2006Z, 2011Z, Colonelcassad/Alex Parker Returns).
SIVERSK DEFEAT INDICATORS (MEDIUM): RF Col. Denis Pirogov (123rd OMSBr) was reportedly awarded the "Hero of Russia" for the "liberation of Siversk" (2025Z, Colonelcassad). This corroborates earlier reports of a UAF command crisis and potential defensive collapse in this sector.
KYIV INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH): Visual evidence confirms kinetic impact on Kyiv’s CHP-5 (TETs-5) heating and power plant following overnight strikes (2015Z, Colonelcassad), exacerbating the regional energy/heating crisis.
ODESA RESIDENTIAL IMPACT (HIGH): Local authorities confirm a residential building fire in Odesa following a drone strike, with significant damage to civilian infrastructure (2019Z, RBC-UA).
REGIONAL DEFENSE SHIFT (LOW): Poland has announced plans for a multi-year "anti-drone fortification line" to secure its perimeter, signaling long-term NATO adaptation to low-altitude aerial threats (2014Z, RBC-UA).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is defined by a high-intensity Information Operation (IO) campaign overlapping critical tactical shifts. While the GS AFU maintains that Myrnohrad and Huliaipole remain under Ukrainian control, the claimed Russian advance into Rodinske suggests an attempt to envelope the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad defensive pocket from the northwest. Simultaneously, the Siversk sector appears to have suffered a significant tactical reversal, potentially resulting in the loss of the city. Weather continues to facilitate RF targeting of district heating (Kyiv TETs-5), aiming for a systemic collapse of civilian endurance.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: RF forces are prioritizing the "blinding" of UAF recon (noted in previous reports) and exploiting command instability in the Siversk salient. The decoration of a Brigade Commander for Siversk indicates RF High Command views the sector as "cleared" or stabilized in their favor.
Tactical Adaptations: Increased use of "objective control" video releases to dominate the information space immediately following tactical actions, attempting to force UAF retrograde movements through psychological pressure.
Logistics/Sustainment: Continued focus on the Pokrovsk-Rodinske axis suggests RF has sufficient reserves to sustain a multi-pronged assault despite UAF counter-storm preparations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is engaged in aggressive defensive IO to maintain domestic morale and counter Russian "inevitability" narratives. The GS AFU's repeated denials regarding Myrnohrad suggest the Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) is likely fluid rather than a total collapse.
C2 Status: The Siversk sector remains the most critical point of failure. The relief of the 54th and 10th Brigade commanders (previous daily report) likely contributed to the RF gains now being celebrated by Russian sources.
Resource Constraints: Damage to TETs-5 in Kyiv will increase the burden on mobile heating assets and may force the diversion of engineering/logistics units to support civilian infrastructure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Disinformation: There is a high-volume collision between Russian "victory" claims and Ukrainian "denial" messaging. DS Beliefs (0.059) reflect an active disinformation campaign.
Morale Factors: The GS AFU is prioritizing "VAZHLIVO" (IMPORTANT) alerts to stabilize the cognitive domain. However, the lack of counter-visuals (e.g., UAF footage from central Myrnohrad) creates an information vacuum.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will consolidate gains in Siversk and pivot assets toward the Lyman direction (KrasnoLyman Front, 2035Z). In the Pokrovsk sector, RF will attempt to link the Rodinske advance with units in western Myrnohrad to sever the T0504 GLOC.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed collapse of the Siversk-Donetsk line allows RF to swing south, threatening the rear of the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration while UAF reserves are tied down in the Pokrovsk "counter-storm" (1943Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect intense urban combat reports from the Kupyansk and Myrnohrad outskirts. The air defense priority will remain Odesa and Kyiv as RF continues to exploit gaps in the heating infrastructure. Monitor for visual confirmation of the Siversk status; if RF claims are true, a significant retrograde of UAF forces in the northern Donetsk oblast is likely underway.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Siversk Status: Urgent requirement for SIGINT or imagery to confirm if UAF units have completed a retrograde or if pockets of resistance remain in the Siversk urban center.
Rodinske FEBA: Determine if RF presence in Rodinske is a transient reconnaissance-in-force or sustained occupation with heavy armor support.
Kyiv TETs-5 BDA: Assess the operational capacity of Kyiv’s heating grid following the confirmed hit on CHP-5.
