MYRNOHRAD CAPTURE CLAIMED (UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the "liberation" of Myrnohrad (1939Z, Alex Parker Returns). This has not been corroborated by the UAF or official Russian MoD channels yet, though RF "Otvazhnye" units are confirmed fighting in the vicinity (1946Z, Операция Z; LOW).
POKROVSK COUNTER-ASSAULT PREPARATIONS (MEDIUM): Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) reports that UAF units are accumulating for a "counter-storm" (counter-assault) in the Pokrovsk direction (1943Z, RBC-UA; MEDIUM).
ODESA CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE KINETIC IMPACT (HIGH): Shahed UAV strikes have caused a major fire in a residential building in Odesa's Primorskyi district; casualties are reported (1950Z, 2001Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО/OVA; HIGH).
KYIV EMERGENCY HEATING MEASURES (HIGH): Deployment of mobile boiler houses to Kyiv hospitals is underway to maintain heating, confirming the operational impact of RF strikes on gas/heating infrastructure noted in earlier daily reports (1952Z, RBC-UA/Kyivteploenergo; HIGH).
ADMISSION OF ENEMY MANPOWER EFFICIENCY (HIGH): NGU Commander Pivnenko publicly acknowledged that the RF mobilization resource and efficiency in manpower management currently exceed Ukraine's (1958Z, Оперативний ЗСУ; HIGH).
STRATEGIC ULTIMATUM (MEDIUM): Putin stated that if Ukraine does not withdraw from claimed territories, the RF will continue "solving SVO tasks by armed force," signaling a rejection of immediate diplomatic off-ramps (1959Z, STERNENKO; MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by an RF attempt to convert tactical breakthroughs at Huliaipole and potentially Myrnohrad into an operational-level collapse of the Donetsk defensive arc. The weather remains a factor, with sub-zero temperatures driving a shift in targeting toward heating infrastructure. UAF is shifting from a purely defensive posture to preparing localized counter-maneuvers (Pokrovsk) while managing a critical infrastructure crisis in Kyiv and Odesa.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: RF "Center" Group (Otvazhnye) is aggressively pushing west of the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk axis. The official MoD Russia claim regarding Huliaipole (1957Z) indicates they have moved from assault to consolidation/mopping up in that sector.
Course of Action: RF is using drone-heavy reconnaissance-strike complexes in the Orikhiv sector (2002Z, Два майора) to probe for weaknesses while the main effort remains the Pokrovsk envelopment.
Logistics/Sustainment: Continued reliance on paramilitary and "charitable" fundraising for tactical vehicles and equipment on the Pokrovsk axis (1950Z, Два майора) suggests that despite strategic-level supply, front-line units still face localized logistical friction.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is currently in a high-risk "hold-and-reset" phase. The preparation of a counter-assault group in Pokrovsk (1943Z) suggests that UAF High Command views the current RF advance as overextended and vulnerable to a flank attack.
Readiness/Resource Constraints: The admission of RF mobilization superiority by the NGU commander (1958Z) highlights a persistent readiness gap that the promised $100bn aid package (1936Z) is intended to bridge through technological overmatch rather than manpower parity.
Tactical Successes: Localized sport-based veteran rehabilitation programs in Kryvyi Rih (1942Z) indicate ongoing efforts to maintain rear-area morale and integrate wounded personnel.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda Campaign: RF sources are utilizing "liberation" imagery in Huliaipole and Myrnohrad to create a narrative of inevitable victory before the New Year (1954Z, Colonelcassad). DS Beliefs (0.41) confirm a high psychological focus on morale-boosting for RF forces.
Diplomatic Context: The focus on "security guarantees" during the Tusk-Zelenskyy discussions (1956Z) suggests Kyiv is prioritizing long-term NATO-style protections over immediate territorial concessions in upcoming negotiations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Within the next 12 hours, RF will attempt to verify the capture of Myrnohrad with geolocated footage to disrupt UAF counter-assault preparations. Odesa will remain under sustained UAV/missile pressure through the night.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces bypass Myrnohrad and launch a direct mechanized assault on the outskirts of Pokrovsk city before UAF "counter-storm" units can reach full combat readiness, potentially leading to an urban street-fighting scenario by 280600Z.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of increased tactical aviation activity in the East (1946Z, AFU Air Force). Expect a critical 12-hour window where the control of Myrnohrad will be determined. The energy situation in Kyiv will remain precarious, necessitating further deployment of emergency heating assets.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad FEBA: Urgently require geolocated visual confirmation of RF presence in western Myrnohrad to verify "capture" claims.
Pokrovsk Reserves: Identify the composition and readiness state of the NGU units designated for the Pokrovsk counter-assault.
Black Sea Launchers: Determine the current status of Russian Kalibr-capable vessels to assess if Shahed waves are precursors to a larger missile strike on Odesa.
