HULIAIPOLE SECTOR CAPTURE CORROBORATED (HIGH): Pro-Russian source Rybar confirms the capture of Huliaipole, specifically crediting "Far Easterners" (Vostok Group elements). This reinforces earlier MoD Russia claims of the settlement's fall (1917Z, Rybar; HIGH).
STRATEGIC AIR CAMPAIGN – ODESA AXIS (HIGH): Multiple waves of UAVs launched from the Black Sea have reached Odesa, with kinetic impact ("explosions heard") confirmed in the city (1905Z, 1917Z, 1929Z, AFU/RBC-UA; HIGH).
MOSCOW AIRSPACE DENIAL (MEDIUM): Russian authorities have re-instituted the "Carpet" (Kover) plan, closing airports due to sustained UAF saturation drone attacks (1934Z, RBC-UA; MEDIUM).
HIGH-LEVEL ENEMY C2 VISIBILITY (MEDIUM): Russian President Putin held a televised meeting at the Auxiliary Command Post of the Joint Grouping of Troops (OGV), signaling a period of operational consolidation or the launch of a new phase (1915Z, Colonelcassad; MEDIUM).
KUPIANSK COUNTER-NARRATIVE (UNCONFIRMED): While earlier reports suggested a UAF withdrawal, new visual media from the sector indicates successful localized UAF engagements and continued presence (1918Z, STERNENKO; LOW).
STRATEGIC FINANCIAL AID ANNOUNCEMENT (MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is set to receive $100 billion in aid/funding today, following high-level meetings in Canada (1927Z, RBC-UA; MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high across two primary axes: the exploitation of the Huliaipole-Myrnohrad breakthrough by RF forces and a reciprocal deep-strike campaign. RF has opened a maritime strike vector against Odesa to complement its inland infrastructure campaign. Simultaneously, UAF is successfully projecting power into the Russian rear (Moscow), causing significant civil-aviation disruption.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Force Disposition: The capture of Huliaipole by "Far Eastern" units (Rybar, 1917Z) suggests the RF 5th Combined Arms Army is maintaining offensive momentum. The presence of Putin at the OGV command post (1815Z) likely serves as both a domestic morale boost and a coordination session for the next phase of winter operations.
Tactical Adaptation: RF is utilizing the Black Sea as a launch point for Shahed-type UAVs to bypass northern AD screens, specifically targeting Odesa (1905Z, AFU).
Propaganda Ops: RF MoD continues its "forced mobilization" narrative by releasing scripted videos of captive soldiers (Emil Farvard) to undermine Ukrainian recruitment efforts (1910Z, MoD Russia).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Posture: High-level diplomacy in Canada (Zelenskyy/Carney) has secured critical commitments for Air Defense (AD) support and a massive $100bn financial package (1907Z, 1927Z). This is likely intended to offset the depletion of interceptor stocks noted in earlier reports.
Kupiansk Sector: Contrary to RF claims of "full capture," UAF units continue to provide visual evidence of localized victories (1918Z, Sternenko), suggesting the city remains a contested "gray zone" rather than a confirmed loss.
Deep Strike: UAF's ability to force airport closures in Moscow via drone saturation (1934Z) indicates a successful penetration of the RF capital’s AD bubble, likely intended to force the redeployment of RF AD assets from the front.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Contestation: A sharp divergence exists regarding Huliaipole and Kupiansk. RF sources (Rybar/MoD) are projecting a "liberation" narrative ("Home of Makhno is free again"), while UAF-linked sources are focusing on tactical resilience and fundraising.
Strategic Messaging: Zelenskyy is proactively framing the upcoming meeting with Donald Trump around "security guarantees" and "economic recovery," attempting to set the diplomatic agenda (1910Z, RBC-UA).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to use the Huliaipole breakthrough to probe the T-04-01 highway toward Zaporizhzhia city. In the next 12 hours, expect a second wave of missile/drone strikes on Odesa port infrastructure and Naftogaz facilities.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF "Center" and "Vostok" groups coordinate a simultaneous pincer movement from Myrnohrad and Huliaipole, aiming to collapse the entire southern Donetsk defensive pocket before UAF can utilize newly announced Western AD assets.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued high-intensity drone activity over Odesa and the Moscow region. The front line in the Pokrovsk-Huliaipole sector will remain fluid as RF attempts to consolidate "newly liberated" territory. UAF will likely attempt further deep strikes on Russian logistics hubs to distract from the tactical retrograde in the south.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Financial Confirmation: Verify the specific source and allocation of the mentioned "$100 billion" aid (e.g., frozen assets, G7 loan, or direct bilateral aid).
Odesa BDA: Obtain Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the current strikes in Odesa; determine if port or energy infrastructure was the primary target.
Kupiansk FEBA: Establish the definitive Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) in Kupiansk to reconcile conflicting victory reports from both sides.
