CONSOLIDATION OF MYRNOHRAD (HIGH): Russian forces have begun "victory celebrations," including fireworks, following the confirmed capture of the city. RF sources claim the fall of the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk agglomeration is complete (1835Z, Colonelcassad; 1852Z, Kotsnews; HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE SECTOR CAPTURE (HIGH): Russian MoD and field sources have provided visual confirmation of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army, Vostok Group) raising the RF flag in central Huliaipole (1836Z, MoD Russia; 1855Z, Colonelcassad; HIGH).
AXIS OF EXPLOITATION IDENTIFIED (MEDIUM): Russian state media reports that the capture of Myrnohrad (Dimitrov) serves as a springboard for operations toward Belitske and Dobropillya (1841Z, TASS; MEDIUM).
AIR DEFENSE SATURATION CHALLENGES (HIGH): UAF Air Force (Ihnat) acknowledges significant difficulty in repelling the Dec 27 air campaign due to the high volume of simultaneous targets in specific regions (1851Z, RBC-UA; HIGH).
NATO ISR SUPPORT CLAIMS (UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources claim NATO is actively utilizing AWACS and Saab 340 aircraft to provide real-time tracking of "Geran" UAVs to UAF command (1904Z, Два майора; LOW).
UAF TACTICAL ADAPTATION (MEDIUM): UAF has reportedly deployed mobile "drone repair laboratory" trucks to the front lines to maintain fleet readiness under intense combat conditions (1851Z, Два майора; MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from a defensive crisis to an exploitation phase for the Russian Federation (RF). With the confirmed fall of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole, the UAF has lost two critical anchor points of the second-line defense. The battlefield geometry now favors RF mechanized thrusts toward the northwest (Dobropillya) and west (toward Zaporizhzhia city). Persistent blizzard conditions continue to degrade UAF's primary defensive advantage: FPV drone saturation.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Operational Intent: In the Pokrovsk sector, the RF "Center" group is pivoting its axis of advance from an eastward frontal assault to a flanking maneuver toward Belitske and Dobropillya to further isolate Pokrovsk from its northern supply lines (TASS, 1841Z).
Psychological Operations: RF is utilizing high-production "victory" content (fireworks in Myrnohrad, flag raisings) to capitalize on UAF's current retrograde and demoralize the Ukrainian domestic audience (Colonelcassad, 1835Z).
Capabilities: RF continues to demonstrate multi-domain pressure, combining ground assaults with high-volume air strikes designed to saturate UAF Air Defense (AD) (Ihnat, 1851Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF forces appear to be establishing a tertiary "winter line" west of the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk agglomeration. The introduction of mobile drone laboratories (1851Z) suggests a localized effort to maintain technological parity despite logistics disruptions.
Constraints: Air Defense assets are currently overstretched. The "multi-target" nature of RF strikes (Ihnat, 1851Z) indicates a depletion of interceptor stocks or a lack of localized AD density.
C2/OSINT: Ukrainian OSINT groups (OsintFlow) are actively updating tactical toolsets (OsintKit) to improve battlefield transparency for field units (CyberBoroshno, 1838Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda/Counter-Propaganda: A major narrative battle is emerging regarding the treatment of civilians in the Pokrovsk sector. RF sources are promoting a "testimony" by Victoria Shvaiko alleging UAF crimes, while UAF sources (Butusov, 1847Z) are proactively debunking these as RF MoD "fakes" and providing contacts for RF deserters.
Strategic Narrative: RF is framing the day's gains as a decisive turning point, with correspondents already discussing the "battle for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk" (Kotsnews, 1852Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF "Center" Group will commence probing attacks toward Belitske within the next 12 hours, attempting to exploit the confusion of the UAF withdrawal from Myrnohrad. In the south, the "Vostok" Group will move to consolidate the high ground around Huliaipole to prevent a UAF counter-attack.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A rapid mechanized breakout from Huliaipole toward the H-08 highway, threatening the rear of the Zaporizhzhia defensive district while UAF AD is preoccupied with saturation strikes in the interior.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued long-range drone and missile strikes targeting UAF C2 nodes and energy hubs in Dnipro and Poltava. Expect RF to attempt a nighttime mechanized push toward Dobropillya to deny UAF the chance to fortify new positions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Dobropillya Defense: Determine the strength and readiness of UAF reserve units currently stationed in the Belitske-Dobropillya corridor.
NATO ISR Verification: Confirm if the reported NATO aerial surveillance (AWACS/Saab 340) is providing direct tactical data-link feeds or general early warning; verify RF claims of "active engagement" in intercepting Gerans.
Zaporizhzhia Retrograde: Identify the specific defensive line UAF 5th Army elements are retreating to west of Huliaipole. Are they holding the T-04-01 junction?
