CONFIRMED FALL OF MYRNOHRAD & RODINSKE (HIGH): Multiple Russian sources, including the MoD and embedded correspondents, have provided visual confirmation (flag raising) of the total capture of Myrnohrad (Dimitrov) and the nearby settlement of Rodinske by "Center" Group forces (MoD Russia, 1810Z; Поддубный, 1823Z; HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE SECTOR COLLAPSE (HIGH): Servicemen of the 60th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army, Vostok Group) have been filmed raising the Russian flag in the center of Huliaipole. Russian security forces claim to have seized over 76 sq. km of the UAF defensive district (Воин DV, 1831Z; ТАСС, 1807Z; HIGH).
TRIPLE SETTLEMENT LOSS RECOGNIZED BY RF MoD (HIGH): The Russian MoD has officially announced the "liberation" of Stepnohirsk, Myrnohrad (Dimitrov), and Huliaipole within the same reporting window (Дневник Десантника, 1820Z; HIGH).
ONGOING AIR THREAT TO POLTAVA (MEDIUM): Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian UAVs (Geran-type) transiting SE Poltava Oblast on a NW course toward the city (Повітряні Сили, 1808Z; HIGH).
UAF COMMAND FRICTION (UNCONFIRMED): Reports suggest internal finger-pointing regarding the fall of Huliaipole, with claims that the head of the Assault Forces, Manko, has disclaimed responsibility for the sector despite Russian advances (STERNENKO, 1824Z; LOW).
SYSTEMIC CAPTURE OF UAF PERSONNEL (MEDIUM): Visuals show significant groups of UAF personnel surrendering in the Myrnohrad sector, indicating localized defensive collapses (Colonelcassad, 1825Z; MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational situation has moved from a defensive crisis to a partial front-line rupture in two key axes: the southern Zaporizhzhia anchor (Huliaipole) and the eastern Pokrovsk approach (Myrnohrad). The simultaneous loss of these hubs suggests the UAF secondary lines are failing to hold under the weight of the Russian winter offensive. Severe weather (Level 2 blizzard warning) continues to hamper UAF's ability to utilize FPV drones to blunt mechanized advances, which the RF is exploiting via high-tempo "Center" and "Vostok" group operations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Progress: RF forces are demonstrating high coordination in urban consolidation. The capture of Rodinske (1823Z) is significant as it suggests an effort to envelope Pokrovsk from the north while Myrnohrad is used as the eastern staging base.
Psychological Operations: The RF MoD is heavily promoting POW videos (e.g., Emil Farvard) to depict the UAF as a force of "forced conscripts" to demoralize remaining defenders (MoD Russia, 1805Z).
Future Intent: Prominent Russian military correspondents are already signaling that the fall of the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) agglomeration clears the path for future operations toward Slavyansk and Kramatorsk (Поддубный, 1813Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: UAF appears to be in a fighting withdrawal from the Huliaipole and Myrnohrad sectors. The loss of Huliaipole is a major blow to the integrity of the line between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.
Command and Control (C2): Emerging reports of inter-unit blame (STERNENKO, 1824Z) regarding the responsibility for Huliaipole's defense suggest a breakdown in sectoral coordination.
Successes: UAF Air Defense continues to maintain high efficiency over Kyiv, successfully intercepting components of the RF strategic air campaign (Президентська бригада ЗСУ, 1807Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Narrative: Dominating the space with "liberation" visuals and victory celebrations (fireworks/salutes in Myrnohrad). Putin's recent rhetoric is being framed as a "verdict" for the Ukrainian state (Kotsnews, 1813Z).
Ukrainian Narrative: Focus remains on the "man of war" (Putin) rejecting peace efforts (Zelenskyy via РБК-Україна, 1807Z) and rallying international support, with Latvia calling for increased pressure on Russia (1821Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF "Center" Group will launch an immediate assault on the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk within 12 hours, using Myrnohrad and Rodinske as primary axes. In the south, Vostok Group will push west from Huliaipole toward Orikhiv to link up with the Stepnohirsk penetration.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A total collapse of the tactical rear in the Pokrovsk sector leading to a rout, allowing RF mechanized elements to reach the Dnipro Oblast border before UAF can establish a tertiary "winter line."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect a surge in Russian long-range UAV and missile strikes targeting the Poltava and Dnipro hubs to disrupt the flow of reinforcements to the crumbling Pokrovsk front. In the south, RF will likely attempt to bypass fortified points to reach the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city before the blizzard conditions peak.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Rodinske Verification: Confirm the extent of Russian control north of Rodinske. Are they pushing toward the H-15 highway?
Huliaipole Retrograde: Identify the current rally point for UAF forces withdrawn from Huliaipole. Is the line at Zaliznychne still holding?
C2 Stability: Verify the status of the 54th and 10th Brigade commands (Siversk sector) following previous reports of relief; determine if the "Manko" controversy is an isolated incident or indicative of a broader General Staff crisis.
