CONFIRMED CAPTURE OF STEPNOHIRSK (HIGH): Russian MoD official congratulations to the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment confirm the seizure of Stepnohirsk, marking a critical breach in the secondary defensive line south of Zaporizhzhia (MoD Russia, 1800Z; HIGH).
CONSOLIDATION OF MYRNOHRAD/DYMYTROV (HIGH): Visual evidence confirms the 5th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (named after Zakharchenko) has established control and raised flags in Myrnohrad, verifying the loss of this critical hub (Поддубный, 1755Z; HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR PENETRATION (MEDIUM): RF Vostok Group reports a 7km deep penetration of UAF lines following the fall of Huliaipole, indicating a rapid collapse of tactical depth (Басурин о главном, 1801Z; MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC DIPLOMATIC AID (HIGH): Canada has pledged 2.5 billion CAD to Ukraine, specifically targeted at unlocking further multi-lateral funding from the IMF, World Bank, and EBRD for reconstruction (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1747Z; РБК-Україна, 1802Z; HIGH).
AGGRESSIVE KREMLIN POSTURE (HIGH): In a command briefing, Putin stated that Russian interest in UAF withdrawal from occupied territories is "zero" given current offensive momentum, signaling a pivot toward total military dictated terms (ТАСС, 1743Z; MoD Russia, 1745Z; HIGH).
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER ALERT (HIGH): The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has issued a Level 2 warning for blizzards, ice, and heavy snow, which will severely degrade mobility and drone operations (РБК-Україна, 1741Z; HIGH).
UAF DEEP STRIKE ACTIVITY (MEDIUM): Russian regional governors report ongoing UAV threats and interceptions in Lipetsk and Bryansk oblasts; RF MoD claims 83 UAF drones destroyed in a 2-hour window (Игорь Артамонов, 1744Z; ТАСС, 1754Z; MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is transitioning into a high-intensity crisis phase for UAF. The simultaneous loss of Huliaipole and Myrnohrad, coupled with the confirmed capture of Stepnohirsk, suggests a systemic failure to hold the primary defensive belt in both the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia sectors. The Russian "Vostok" and "Center" groups are exploiting these gaps with mechanized depth. Furthermore, severe winter weather (blizzards/ice) is now a primary environmental constraint, likely favoring the side with superior logistics and heavy tracked vehicle availability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: RF is employing specialized units for urban consolidation, such as the 5th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Myrnohrad and the 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment in Stepnohirsk. The speed of the 7km penetration in Zaporizhzhia indicates effective use of mechanized exploitation forces once the main line of resistance (MLR) is breached.
C2/Intent: Putin’s visit to the Joint Grouping of Forces (JGF) command post is a clear signaling effort. The Kremlin is now openly rejecting negotiated withdrawals, assessing that they can achieve all strategic objectives through force. This indicates an intent to push for a decisive military collapse of the UAF before any potential spring diplomatic windows.
UAV Operations: RF continues to utilize "Unmanned Systems Forces" to disrupt UAF tactical movements, as evidenced by MoD strike compilations (MoD Russia, 1732Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is in a state of tactical retrograde in the Myrnohrad and Huliaipole sectors. The loss of Stepnohirsk is particularly concerning as it directly threatens the southern approaches to Zaporizhzhia city.
Operational Successes: Despite territorial losses, UAF continues to execute long-range "saturation" drone strikes into the Russian rear (Lipetsk/Bryansk), attempting to disrupt RF logistical nodes and air defense density.
Resource Constraints: The Canadian aid package (2.5bn CAD) is a vital strategic lifeline but will not have an immediate tactical impact on the current defensive crisis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Propaganda: The narrative is shifting from "liberation" to "unconditional victory." The synchronization of Gerasimov’s briefing with Putin’s aggressive rhetoric is designed to demoralize UAF and its Western supporters.
Internal Dissent (Occupied): Reports from Mariupol indicate civilian dissatisfaction with RF reconstruction efforts (homelessness/demolitions), providing a potential avenue for UAF information operations (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1802Z).
Counter-Narrative: GUR Chief Budanov’s claims of increasing dissent within Putin's inner circle (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1738Z) serve as the primary psychological counter-weight to Russian battlefield successes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF forces will continue to exploit the momentum in the Zaporizhzhia sector, pushing from Stepnohirsk toward Orikhiv and the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city. In the East, RF will utilize Myrnohrad as a staging base for a multi-axis assault on Pokrovsk.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A rapid mechanized breakthrough from Stepnohirsk that reaches the Dnipro River south of Zaporizhzhia, combined with a collapse of the Siversk salient (following command relief), leading to a general unravelling of the Eastern Front GLOCs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia FEBA: Clarification is needed on the exact location of the 7km penetration. Have RF forces bypassed the main defenses at Orikhiv?
Pokrovsk Defense: Identify if UAF has successfully established a secondary line at the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad industrial divide.
Logistics: Monitor the impact of the Level 2 weather alert on RF supply columns. Is the weather impeding RF mechanized movement or primarily grounding UAF defensive drones?
