FALL OF HULIAIPOLE (HIGH): The Russian "Vostok" Group of Forces has confirmed the capture of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Footage shows units of the 57th and 60th Motor Rifle Brigades in the town; the capture was formally reported to Putin by Gerasimov (TASS, 1711Z; Воин DV, 1714Z; HIGH).
CRITICAL BREAKTHROUGH AT MYRNOHRAD/DYMYTROV (HIGH): Russian forces have claimed the capture of Myrnohrad (referred to as Dymytrov by RF sources). This represents a major tactical breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, significantly threatening the wider UAF defensive belt in Donetsk (TASS, 1718Z; Colonelcassad, 1730Z; HIGH).
EXPANSION OF ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE (MEDIUM): RF forces have reportedly seized Stepnohirsk, indicating a widening of the offensive south of Zaporizhzhia city (ТАСС, 1720Z; Два майора, 1731Z; MEDIUM).
DONETSK SECTOR COLLAPSE (MEDIUM): RF "Center" Group reports the capture of Rodinske and Artemivka (Sofiyivka), further isolating UAF positions near Pokrovsk (ТАСС, 1722Z; Два майора, 1727Z; MEDIUM).
ZELENSKYY IN CANADA (HIGH): President Zelenskyy has arrived in Halifax, Canada, for diplomatic engagements, refuting Russian disinformation claims that he had fled to the US to meet Donald Trump (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1712Z; РБК-Україна, 1724Z; HIGH).
INTERNAL ANTI-CORRUPTION DRIVE (HIGH): NABU and SAP have issued suspicions against four "Sluga Narodu" MPs (Pyvovarov, Negulevsky, Savchenko, Kisel) regarding organized crime and bribery, potentially impacting domestic political stability during this military crisis (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1715Z; STERNENKO, 1721Z; HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational situation has significantly deteriorated in the last 60 minutes. Russia is executing a synchronized series of captures across two primary axes: the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad sector in the East and the Huliaipole/Stepnohirsk sector in the South. Vladimir Putin’s visit to an Auxiliary Command Post (announced 1710Z) serves as a strategic theater for these announcements, suggesting a pre-planned "victory surge" in the information domain to coincide with the tactical reality on the ground.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: The RF "Center" and "Vostok" Groups are demonstrating high coordination. The use of ZALA reconnaissance drones in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction (MoD Russia, 1706Z) is providing real-time targeting for mechanized assaults, which appear to be overwhelming local UAF defenses.
Strategic Command: Putin’s direct involvement and the briefing by Gerasimov indicate that the RF General Staff is prioritizing the consolidation of the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia land bridge.
Logistics: While official reports claim high readiness, critical voices (Alex Parker Returns, 1721Z) suggest localized logistical failures, including the use of pack animals (horses/donkeys) for final-mile delivery in some sectors, highlighting a potential disparity between frontline reality and high-level briefings.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Tactical Successes: Despite territorial losses, the 27th Pechersk Brigade (LASAR’S GROUP) successfully destroyed a Russian mechanized column in the Dobropillia sector using heavy strike drones (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1717Z). This confirms that UAF "sensor-to-shooter" links remain lethal where they have sufficient drone density.
Constraints: The loss of Huliaipole and Myrnohrad suggests a widening gap in infantry numbers and defensive fortifications. The simultaneous domestic political scandal involving multiple MPs may distract from the urgent need for mobilization and legislative support for the front.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda Synchronicity: Russia is utilizing the "liberation" of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole to dominate the 24h news cycle. The narrative emphasizes that the "tasks are being fulfilled according to plan" (TASS, 1722Z).
Disinformation: RF channels (Два майора) attempted to frame Zelenskyy's Canada trip as a desperate flight to see Trump, aimed at undermining his legitimacy.
Counter-Narrative: GUR Chief Budanov is promoting a narrative of internal Russian dissent, claiming increased support for ending the war within Putin's inner circle (РБК-Україна, 1710Z), likely to counter the demoralizing effect of recent territorial losses.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF forces will capitalize on the fall of Myrnohrad to launch an immediate assault on the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk. In the south, having taken Huliaipole and Stepnohirsk, the "Vostok" group will likely attempt to pivot toward Orikhiv to collapse the remains of the 2023 counter-offensive salient.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A rapid mechanized exploitation from Myrnohrad toward the T0504 highway, cutting off the main logistics vein for the entire Donetsk grouping, potentially leading to a cascading withdrawal of UAF forces toward the Dnipro Oblast border.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pokrovsk FEBA: Urgent need for verification of the western limit of RF advance in Myrnohrad. Are UAF forces establishing a new line at the industrial zone between Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk?
Stepnohirsk Status: Confirm the extent of the RF presence in Stepnohirsk. Is this a total capture or a raid into the outskirts?
Shahed Vector: Monitor the UAVs approaching Kharkiv (1705Z); determine if they are targeting the already stressed energy/heating hubs or military command centers following the Putin/Gerasimov briefing.
