MASSIVE STRATEGIC DRONE OFFENSIVE (MEDIUM): RF sources claim 128 UAF UAVs intercepted over RF territory in a 4.5-hour window, with current flight paths targeting Naro-Fominsk, Mozhaysky, Tver, and Smolensk regions (Voenkor Kotenok, 1626Z; NgP razvedka, 1606Z; UNCONFIRMED/LOW confidence on quantity).
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH): Confirmed Russian strikes on Naftogaz Group facilities; the targeting vector has officially shifted from the electrical grid to gas production and heating infrastructure (Tsapliienko, 1610Z; HIGH).
KYIV MASS CASUALTY/OUTAGE (HIGH): 32 casualties confirmed in Kyiv following recent strikes. Power outages currently affect 500,000 households; stabilization is estimated to take 2-3 days (Klitschko via RBK-Ukraine, 1616Z; Nagornyak via Operatyvnyi ZSU, 1625Z; HIGH).
KUPYANSK SECTOR ESCALATION (MEDIUM): RF forces claim successful actions in the vicinity of Glushkovka on the eastern bank of the Oskil River (Colonelcassad, 1630Z; MEDIUM).
POKROVSK DEFENSIVE ACTION (HIGH): The 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" reports successful destruction of RF infantry attempting to infiltrate Pokrovsk urban outskirts (Butusov Plus, 1632Z; HIGH).
PRECISION STRIKE ON UMAN (HIGH): RF forces utilized a Kh-69 cruise missile to strike targets in Uman, Cherkasy Oblast (Colonelcassad, 1615Z; HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Moscow/Tver)
Moscow/Deep Rear: UAF has expanded the geography of its saturation drone attack. While eastern Moscow is reportedly "clear," the main mass of drones is now bypassing the capital via western corridors (Naro-Fominsk/Mozhaysky) and moving toward Tver and Smolensk Oblasts (NgP razvedka, 1606Z, 1621Z).
Sumy: Sustained RF shelling of border villages continues alongside 60+ recorded combat engagements across the northern front (RBK-Ukraine, 1631Z).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Kupyansk)
Kupyansk/Oskil: RF activity in Glushkovka confirms an intent to collapse the UAF bridgehead on the Oskil's eastern bank. This aligns with earlier reports of intense urban fighting in Kupyansk.
Pokrovsk: Tactical situation remains critical but stable. UAF 425th "Skala" Regiment is utilizing FPV and small-unit tactics to prevent RF "infiltration" (seepage) into city blocks (Butusov Plus, 1632Z).
Donetsk (Occupied): RF sources report a "massed" UAF drone attack on targets within Donetsk city (Voenkor Kotenok, 1617Z).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Kamianske Reservoir: UAF Air Force reports drone movement toward Kremenchuk, likely for reconnaissance or targeting of hydro-electric infrastructure (AFU Air Force, 1624Z).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has entered a "Strategic Infrastructure Duel." Russia is attempting to force a civilian collapse by targeting the Naftogaz heating/gas network during sub-zero temperatures. Concurrently, Ukraine has launched its most significant aerial saturation attack of the war against the Moscow and Tver regions to disrupt RF C2 and political stability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: Use of the Kh-69 (stealthy, low-altitude cruise missile) against Uman indicates RF is utilizing its most modern precision munitions to bypass depleted AD corridors.
Intentions: The focus on Nizhny Novgorod (new banknote, demographic ministry) suggests the RF is attempting to project long-term domestic "normalization" despite the escalating border/rear-area insecurity (ASTRA, 1634Z; Gleb Nikitin, 1613Z).
Sustainment: The 30% recruitment rate from SIZO facilities (previous report) remains the primary method for filling high-attrition infantry units in the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk sectors.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is maintaining defensive integrity in Pokrovsk through high-intensity drone/assault unit integration.
Logistics: The 421st "Sapsan" Battalion and other drone units remain heavily reliant on volunteer crowdsourcing (e.g., Nikolayevsky Vanek) for mobility and equipment (421st BPLA, 1601Z).
Constraints: Kyiv's energy crisis (500k households dark) will likely impact local C2 and logistics hubs if not stabilized by the 48-hour target.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Peace Window Narrative: GUR Budanov’s interview regarding a Feb 2026 peace window is being widely amplified by pro-Russian "Voenkors" to frame 2025 as a year of "inevitable" RF territorial gains in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia (Operatsia Z, 1628Z).
Diplomatic: German Friedrich Merz (CDU) cooling talks of troop deployment serves as a dampener on recent "European coalition" rhetoric (RBK-Ukraine, 1614Z).
Propaganda: The promotion of the rebuilt Mariupol Drama Theater is a calculated effort to mask the humanitarian legacy of the 2022 siege (Basurin, 1615Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a secondary wave of "Shahed" drones tonight targeting gas distribution hubs in Western Ukraine to compound the impact of the Naftogaz strikes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF mechanized forces in the Kupyansk sector exploit the Glushkovka foothold to sever the Oskil river crossings, isolating UAF elements in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.
Decision Points: If Moscow AD remains saturated for another 6 hours, RF may be forced to redeploy frontline AD (Tor/Pantsir) to the capital, creating tactical openings for UAF aviation on the southern front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA on Naftogaz: Immediate damage assessment required for gas pumping stations to determine if heating can be restored before the next temperature drop.
UAF Drone Losses: Verify RF claims of 128 drones downed; high loss rates would indicate significant improvements in RF electronic warfare (EW) or AD density around Moscow.
Kupyansk FEBA: Precise location of RF forces in Glushkovka to determine if the Oskil crossing is under direct fire control.
