REPELLED BORDER BREACH (HIGH): Ukrainian 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade (Kryla Do Pekla unit) successfully repelled an RF attempt to breach the border in the Sumy region near Tetkino (STERNENKO, 1537Z; HIGH).
CONCENTRATED CROSS-BORDER COUNTER-STRIKE (HIGH): UAF "Stalevyi Kordon" brigade conducted a coordinated UAV strike in Kursk Oblast, destroying four shelters, an ammunition depot, a vehicle, and an RF drone launch position used for strikes on Sumy (Tsapliienko, 1604Z; HIGH).
MOSCOW AD PENETRATION (HIGH): At least 21 UAF UAVs have been intercepted on the approach to Moscow since 0000Z. RF sources report drones attempting to bypass city defenses via western and eastern corridors, specifically targeting the Khimki and Zhukovsky sectors (TASS, 1601Z; NgP razvedka, 1600Z; HIGH).
RECRUITMENT ADAPTATION (MEDIUM): Reports indicate RF authorities are targeting the "quarantine" phase of pre-trial detention (SIZO) for mobilization, with an alleged 30% recruitment rate among detainees facing immediate coercion (Sever.Realii, 1600Z; MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC FORECAST (MEDIUM): GUR Chief Budanov identified February 2026 as the most favorable window for potential peace negotiations, aligning with previous assessments of RF mobilization cycles and 2025 operational goals (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 1541Z; HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kursk/Kharkiv)
Sumy/Tetkino: A Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) or small assault element attempted a border crossing. The 103rd TDF Brigade utilized FPV drones to repel the force. This indicates RF continues to probe northern borders to fix UAF reserves away from the Donbas.
Kursk (RF): UAF precision strikes on "Vampire" and FPV platforms targeted Russian launch sites, aiming to degrade RF tactical aviation and drone harassment of Sumy-based logistics.
Kyiv: Power restored to 50,000 households following recent strikes, though the grid remains fragile (RBK-Ukraine, 1558Z).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Siversk)
Siversk/Pokrovsk: Field reports from UAF commanders (Khartia Brigade) emphasize that despite "peace" rhetoric, combat intensity remains at peak levels across the Siversk-Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka arc. No confirmed changes to the FEBA since the morning's command turnover (Butusov Plus, 1553Z).
Gorlovka: Pro-Russian forces conducted a high-profile blood donation drive involving "Wargonzo" elements, likely an IO effort to bolster local morale and mask high casualty rates in the ongoing Bakhmut/Toretsk offensive (Vtoroy Polozhitelnyi, 1448Z).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Gorkoye (Zaporizhzhia): RF 35th Army (Vostok Group) BpLA units conducted strikes against UAF personnel. This area remains a flashpoint for small-unit attrition (Voin DV, 1600Z).
Zaporizhzhia Front: Pro-Russian channels are highlighting individual "hero" narratives for personnel returning to Moscow, part of a broader domestic support campaign (Two Majors, 1539Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Coercive Mobilization: The exploitation of SIZO detainees suggests a continuing need for "disposable" infantry to maintain the current attritional tempo. If the 30% recruitment rate is accurate, this provides a steady, albeit low-quality, replacement stream for high-loss sectors like Vovchansk or Kurakhove.
Tactical Shift: RF drone operators are shifting flight paths toward the western and eastern outskirts of Moscow (Khimki/Zhukovsky), likely attempting to exploit gaps in the "Pantsir-S1" ring and radar shadows created by urban terrain (NgP razvedka, 1600Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Logistics: The delivery of 70,000 3D-printed munitions from a Bulgarian volunteer network highlights a critical reliance on non-traditional supply chains to supplement standard artillery shortfalls (Tsapliienko, 1553Z).
Cross-Border Denial: UAF is transitioning from passive border defense to active "search and destroy" missions against RF drone launch sites in Kursk, using "Vampire" heavy UAVs to suppress RF tactical reconnaissance.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Friction: A growing rift between Azerbaijan and Russia over the closure of the AZAL aircraft shootdown investigation (linked to RF AD) is being highlighted by independent media. This potentially complicates RF-Azerbaijan bilateral relations (ASTRA, 1539Z).
US Election Framing: State media (TASS) is actively amplifying Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding the Epstein files to discredit the current US administration and Republican/Democrat stability, aiming to undermine long-term US support for Ukraine (TASS, 1542Z).
Holiday Logistics: Ukrainian Border Guards (DPSU) are managing a surge in passenger traffic at the Polish border, which may be targeted by RF-aligned "protest" narratives or IO to suggest mass exodus/instability (RBK-Ukraine, 1545Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely intensify "Geran" (Shahed) strikes on the Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad axis (1545Z) to interdict rail logistics moving toward the Donetsk front.
MDCOA: RF may attempt a larger-scale border incursion in the Sumy or Chernihiv regions to capitalize on the psychological impact of the Tetkino attempt and divert AD assets from the Moscow-facing border.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Tetkino Breach Scale: Determine if the 1537Z attempt involved mechanized support or was purely a light infantry DRG.
Khimki/Zhukovsky AD: Assess the density of RF AD assets in the newly targeted Moscow corridors to determine if UAF is successfully identifying "dead zones."
Bulgarian Supply Chain: Evaluate the sustainability of 3D-printed munition deliveries and their impact on UAF mortar/drone drop capacity at the tactical level.
