MASSIVE UAF DEEP STRIKE OPERATION (HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense reports the interception of 111 Ukrainian UAVs over multiple Russian regions, including Moscow and Bryansk, within a three-hour window. This represents a significant escalation in saturation tactics (TASS, 1518Z; AV Bogomaz, 1519Z; HIGH).
STRATEGIC MOBILIZATION DATA (MEDIUM): GUR Chief Budanov reports that the RF met its 2025 mobilization goal of 403,000 personnel by early December. He identifies the seizure of the entire Donbas and Zaporizhzhia region as Moscow's primary objectives for 2026 (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 1523Z; HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC ROADMAP 2040 (HIGH): President Zelenskyy announced a "prosperity roadmap" being developed with the US, outlining a strategic vision through 2040 including investment and security frameworks (Zelenskiy / Official, 1516Z; HIGH).
TACTICAL AVIATION STRIKES (HIGH): RF forces conducted heavy FAB (General Purpose Bomb) strikes on Kostiantynivka (Donetsk) and KAB (Guided Bomb) strikes on the outskirts of Kharkiv (Two Majors, 1530Z; RBK-Ukraine, 1532Z; HIGH).
INTERNAL SECURITY INCIDENT (MEDIUM): A death occurred at a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) in the Odesa region after a citizen lost consciousness. This incident poses a high risk to domestic morale and mobilization narratives (RBK-Ukraine, 1510Z; MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Kupyansk)
Kharkiv: RF tactical aviation continues to target the city's periphery with KABs (1532Z). This maintains pressure on civilian infrastructure and prevents the concentration of UAF reserves.
Kupyansk: The situation remains highly volatile. While pro-Russian sources claim control, the tactical status remains contested with no definitive visual confirmation of a FEBA shift since the morning's reports of urban fighting (Colonelcassad, 1532Z; UNCONFIRMED).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Bakhmut Axis)
Kostiantynivka: Sustained heavy bombardment by RF Aerospace Forces (VKS) using multiple FAB strikes (1530Z). This suggests an effort to interdict UAF logistics and command nodes supporting the Siversk and Bakhmut-Kramatorsk sectors.
Siversk: No new updates following the relief of the 54th and 10th Brigade commanders; the sector remains in a state of high tactical risk regarding C2 stability (Baseline/Daily Report).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Tactical Innovation: The RF "Dnepr" Group of Forces is actively training personnel in motorcycle-based assault and mobility tactics (MoD Russia, 1534Z). This confirms the adaptation of small, high-mobility units to bypass UAF FPV drone zones.
Strategic Intent: GUR assessment identifies the full occupation of Zaporizhzhia as a "dream" goal for RF forces in 2026 (1523Z).
4. Strategic Rear (Russian Federation)
Aviation Disruption: Saturation drone attacks (111+ UAVs) have forced ongoing defensive measures across Moscow and Bryansk. While RF MoD claims high interception rates, the scale indicates a coordinated effort to deplete AD interceptor stocks and disrupt the "Carpet" civil aviation plan (1512Z, 1518Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Mobilization Status: Successful RF recruitment of 403k personnel in 2025 (1518Z) ensures the enemy maintains a favorable force ratio for continued attritional warfare into 2026.
Long-term Intent: RF objectives are shifting toward multi-year planning (2026 goals), suggesting they do not anticipate a near-term total victory but are prepared for a prolonged conflict focused on the four annexed oblasts.
Hybrid Operations: Ongoing Russian "specialist" presence in the Central African Republic (1505Z) indicates that despite frontline pressures, the RF maintains the capacity for expeditionary power projection and influence operations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Doctrine: Transition to high-volume (100+ unit) saturation strikes suggests UAF has achieved a new scale of domestic UAV production or successful integration of Western long-range components.
Diplomatic Pivot: Leadership is increasingly framing the conflict within a legal and democratic framework (referendums, international observers) to maintain domestic legitimacy during potential negotiations (1508Z, 1510Z).
Strategic Planning: Collaboration with the US on a 15-year "Roadmap 2040" signals a move to decouple long-term economic/security planning from immediate battlefield volatility.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Resistance: The TCC death in Odesa is likely to be weaponized by RF-aligned channels to incite domestic unrest and undermine the 2025 mobilization targets mentioned by Budanov.
"Status Quo" Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Z Operation) are using German media (Bild) to preemptively frame the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting as a failure, aiming to lower Ukrainian public expectations (1516Z).
Historical Revisionism: Coordinated narratives regarding Ihor Kolomoisky and "neo-nazi" armies (1526Z) continue to circulate to justify the RF's initial invasion rationale to domestic audiences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will continue FAB/KAB strikes on Kostiantynivka and Kharkiv to exploit local air superiority. UAF will likely conduct BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on the results of the Moscow/Bryansk drone swarm.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): The tactical crisis in Siversk (C2 turnover) combined with the heavy bombardment of nearby Kostiantynivka facilitates a rapid RF mechanized breakthrough toward the T0513 GLOC, potentially encircling units within the Siversk salient.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Saturation Strike Effectiveness: Determine if any of the 111 UAVs successfully impacted high-value targets in Moscow or if the operation was primarily a decoy/AD depletion mission.
Kupyansk FEBA: Urgent need for geolocated footage to confirm the extent of RF penetration into Kupyansk city limits.
Motorcycle Unit Deployment: Track the movement of the "Dnepr" Group’s newly trained motorcycle units toward the frontline in Zaporizhzhia/Kherson to anticipate high-speed infiltration attempts.
