MASSIVE AERIAL ASSAULT (HIGH): An integrated Russian aerial campaign has targeted Kyiv and central Ukraine for over 16 consecutive hours, involving hundreds of drones and missiles (ASTRA, 1359Z; Tsaplienko, 1349Z).
HULIAIPOLE TACTICAL COLLAPSE (HIGH): Pro-Russian sources confirm the "de facto loss" of Huliaipole by UAF forces following failed counterattacks; RF units are currently conducting "mopping up" operations (Colonelcassad, 1403Z).
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING (HIGH): RF strikes have specifically pivoted to "Naftogaz" gas and heating facilities, timed to coincide with a severe winter cold snap (Operativnyi ZSU, 1401Z; RBC-UA, 1358Z).
REGIONAL AIR ESCALATION (HIGH): Poland scrambled fighter jets and closed two airports overnight in response to the proximity of RF missile vectors to the NATO border (ASTRA, 1335Z).
MOSCOW DEEP STRIKE (HIGH): Russian air defenses intercepted three UAVs targeting Moscow, corroborating previous reports of airspace restrictions at Vnukovo (ASTRA, 1354Z; TASS, 1355Z).
INTERNAL SECURITY (MEDIUM): The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) conducted raids at the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), indicating significant internal investigative activity amid the kinetic crisis (Kotsnews, 1339Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment has shifted from localized tactical engagements to a theater-wide strategic pressure campaign. The RF "Mass Missile Strike" predicted in the 26 DEC summary has materialized as a multi-vector, sustained 16-hour engagement.
Battlefield Geometry: The loss of Huliaipole creates a dangerous vacuum on the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk junction.
Weather: Severe winter conditions (snow, ice, 17m/s winds) are now a primary operational factor, hindering UAF mobile fire groups and complicating logistics for both sides (RBC-UA, 1339Z).
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Southern Sector (Huliaipole):CRITICAL. RF forces (specifically the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade and "Kaira" Detachment) have established control over the city. RF Su-34 aviation was reportedly decisive in breaking UAF counterattacks. Expect an official RF MoD announcement of "liberation" within 48-72 hours (Colonelcassad, 1403Z; Voin DV, 1335Z).
Kyiv/Northern Sector: Under sustained OWA-UAV and missile pressure. Over 10 high-rise buildings and a Ministry of Education administrative building sustained damage (Operativnyi ZSU, 1352Z; Tsaplienko, 1401Z). UAVs remain active in the Vasylkiv/Glevakha area (Air Force, 1350Z).
Poltava/Mirgorod Axis:ACTIVE THREAT. High-priority alert for ballistic missile strikes from the northeast (Air Force, 1404Z).
International Border: Scrambling of Polish assets indicates the RF flight paths are intentionally or recklessly testing the western border buffers.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Intentions: RF is executing a "Cold Winter" strategy, shifting target sets from purely electrical substations to gas and heating infrastructure (Naftogaz) to maximize civilian distress during the blizzard (Operativnyi ZSU, 1401Z).
Tactical Adaptations: RF is demonstrating high-level integration between FPV "strike companies" and traditional tube/rocket artillery, particularly within the 39th Brigade (Voin DV, 1335Z).
Aviation: Su-34s are being used as tactical "fire-brigades" to suppress UAF mechanized movements in the south, suggesting a high level of confidence in their current air superiority over the Zaporizhzhia contact line.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile fire groups and aviation have achieved multiple shoot-downs during the 16-hour window (Tsaplienko, 1349Z), but the volume of fire is stretching magazine depth.
Counter-UAV Operations: The Kastus Kalinoŭski Regiment is employing specialized "sky clearing" drone teams in the Zaporizhzhia sector to contest RF tactical reconnaissance (STERNENKO, 1345Z).
Governance: Despite the strikes, anti-corruption measures (NABU raids) continue, signifying a commitment to domestic institutional integrity even under fire (Kotsnews, 1339Z).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT / DISINFORMATION
Foreign Fighters: RF channels are circulating claims of the "liquidation" of American mercenaries to deter Western volunteers and frame the conflict as a direct war with NATO (Operatsiya Z, 1402Z). (UNCONFIRMED - LOW CONFIDENCE).
Social Instability: RF sources are highlighting domestic grievances within Russia (e.g., Tumen military commissariat refusing aid to a POW’s wife) to potentially mask their own personnel issues or as part of internal "Mobilization" news cycles (Mobilization News, 1346Z).
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will continue the OWA-UAV swarm over Kyiv to exhaust AD batteries before a second wave of ballistic/cruise missiles. In the South, RF will begin probing the secondary defensive line west of Huliaipole.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A major gas infrastructure failure in Kyiv or Kharkiv due to the Naftogaz strikes, combined with -10°C temperatures, could lead to a localized humanitarian collapse and the need for emergency military involvement in civil engineering.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Huliaipole Retrograde: Confirm the exact coordinates of the new UAF defensive line. Is the T0518 highway under RF fire control?
Naftogaz BDA: Assess the severity of damage to gas pumping/storage facilities. Determine if the "gas/heat" targeting is a nationwide shift or localized to the Kyiv/Kharkiv regions.
Munition Depletion: Evaluate UAF interceptor stock levels following the 16-hour sustained engagement.
