SIVERSK DEFENSIVE CRISIS (HIGH): Corroborated reports (1313Z, DeepState/UP) confirm severe personnel consequences, including the removal of brigade commanders, following "significant military setbacks" in the Siversk sector.
KYIV UTILITY DEGRADATION (HIGH): Kyivvodokanal reports reduced water pressure city-wide due to emergency power grid failures affecting pumping stations (1313Z, RBK-UA).
PRECISION FIRES IN HULIAIPOLE (MEDIUM): RF forces are reportedly employing "new Russian HIMARS" (likely Tornado-S or similar precision MLRS) to support the ongoing assault/consolidation in Huliaipole (1326Z, Operatsiya Z).
MOSCOW AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS (MEDIUM): Vnukovo Airport has implemented temporary flight restrictions; typically indicative of UAV threats or heightened EW activity (1325Z, ASTRA).
METEOROLOGICAL ALERT (HIGH): Severe blizzard conditions with 17m/s winds expected in the Bryansk region starting this evening, likely impacting UAV operations and logistics (1316Z, AV Bogomaz).
KYIV TRANSPORT RECOVERY (HIGH): "Red Line" metro service has returned to normal weekend schedules (6-minute intervals) following earlier disruptions (1314Z, Operativnyi ZSU).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a deepening infrastructure crisis in Kyiv and a critical command failure in the Siversk sector. While the Kyiv metro has stabilized, the failure of water pumping stations indicates that the earlier strike on the Kyiv HPP has caused systemic electrical frequency issues. In the Donbas, the confirmation of command changes via credible Ukrainian sources (DeepState) strongly suggests a tactical collapse or significant loss of terrain in the Siversk salient. Weather is becoming a decisive factor in the Northern sector (Bryansk), where an incoming blizzard will likely suppress aerial reconnaissance for both sides.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Siversk Sector:CRITICAL. The relief of the 54th and 10th Brigade commanders is now corroborated. This level of intervention by UAF High Command indicates a breakdown in defensive integrity. RF forces are likely attempting to exploit the C2 vacuum to seize high ground surrounding the city.
Southern Sector (Huliaipole): RF forces are utilizing precision MLRS (Tornado-S) to strike UAF defensive positions. This suggests a transition from "meat-grinder" assaults to a more technical, fire-supported advance aimed at preventing UAF from re-establishing a line west of the city.
Kyiv/Northern Sector: Recovery of metro services is offset by the loss of water pressure. The grid remains in a state of "emergency situation" (Kyivvodokanal). The threat to Moscow airspace (Vnukovo) suggests UAF deep-strike assets remain active or are being used as a decoy to fix RF AD assets.
Kupyansk/Sumy Axis: Pro-RF sources claim a tactical link between UAF activity in Sumy and the defense of Kupyansk, suggesting UAF may be attempting to draw RF reserves away from the Oskil river line.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: RF is demonstrating improved fire-maneuver synchronization in Huliaipole by integrating precision MLRS into the assault phase. The use of "new" systems suggests an influx of modernized equipment to the Vostok Group of forces.
Information Operations: Chechen (Kadyrov) and Pro-RF channels are maintaining a high volume of celebratory/commemorative content (e.g., Margelov's birthday, Chechen Info Dept anniversary) to maintain domestic morale amid ongoing casualties.
Logistics: Severe weather in Bryansk will likely slow the movement of the RF 20th Combined Arms Army and may temporarily halt the launch of Shahed-type OWA-UAVs from northern launch sites.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Force Sustainment: Successful public fundraising for the "OMEGA" special operations unit (tactical radios) highlights ongoing reliance on volunteer logistics for critical C3 (Command, Control, and Communications) equipment (1327Z, Butusov).
Civilian Resilience: The "eRecovery" program continues to show progress in Kharkiv (4,665 properties), serving as a primary counter-narrative to RF claims of regional abandonment (1328Z, Synegubov).
Operational Security: Tightening restrictions on reporting from Siversk and the Kyiv HPP strike indicate a priority on denying the enemy BDA (Battle Damage Assessment).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT / DISINFORMATION
Siversk Narrative: Pro-RF channels are aggressively framing the Siversk "setbacks" as a precursor to a wider collapse of the Donbas front.
Contingency Planning: Donbas-based pro-RF aggregators (Mash) are preparing for internet/Telegram outages, suggesting they anticipate intensified UAF EW or strikes on communications infrastructure.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will intensify artillery pressure on Siversk to capitalize on the command transition. In Kyiv, rolling blackouts will likely expand to manage the load on the water pumping system.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A rapid RF mechanized push from Huliaipole toward the T0518 highway, supported by precision MLRS, could bypass UAF blocking positions and threaten the wider Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk junction.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Siversk C2 Status: Identify the interim commanders for the 54th and 10th Brigades and assess their ability to stabilize the front.
Precision MLRS (Huliaipole): Confirm the variant and quantity of "new" MLRS systems deployed; determine if this indicates a shift in RF GRAU supply priorities.
Kyiv Water Grid: Assess the timeline for pump restoration. Extended water outages combined with winter temperatures increase the risk of pipe bursts and humanitarian distress.
