KYIV HPP STRIKE (MEDIUM): Reports and visual evidence indicate a strike targeting the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) in Vyshhorod; Russian sources claim 7 of 9 regional energy infrastructure objects were hit (1300Z, ASTRA; 1303Z, Colonelcassad, Medium).
SIVERSK SECTOR CRISIS (MEDIUM): Unconfirmed reports suggest the loss of Siversk, leading to the removal of the commanders of the 54th and 10th Brigades (1246Z, Operativnyi ZSU/UP, Medium).
MASS DRONE ATTACK ON BRYANSK (HIGH): RF officials claim 36 UAF fixed-wing UAVs were intercepted over the Bryansk region (1227Z, AV Bogomaz, High).
KYIV LOGISTICS RECOVERY (HIGH): Metro service between Akademmistechko and Lisova has been fully restored following the morning's disruptions (1229Z, RBC-Ukraine, High).
INTERNAL SECURITY FRICTION (MEDIUM): State Guard (UDO) conducted security screenings of NABU witnesses at the Kyiv government quarter; NABU issued a denial regarding searches of MP Yuriy Koryavchenkov (1228Z, 1253Z, Sternenko/RBC-Ukraine, Medium).
CIVILIAN CASUALTY IN KHERSON (HIGH): A civilian woman was killed by a drone strike in the village of Stanislav (1254Z, ASTRA, High).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from the "saturation" phase of the overnight missile strike to a critical assessment and exploitation phase. The most significant development is the reported strike on the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), which represents a major escalation in infrastructure targeting. In the East, the Siversk salient appears to be under extreme pressure or potentially compromised, evidenced by the reported sacking of two brigade commanders. Reciprocal long-range strikes continue, with a large-scale Ukrainian UAV wave targeting the Bryansk region (RF) to disrupt logistics.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Kyiv/Northern Sector: Critical infrastructure is the primary target. While metro services have resumed, the reported damage to the Kyiv HPP and various TPPs (7/9 targets hit per RF claims) suggests significant grid instability. A ban on publishing strike results is being strictly reinforced by UAF channels following leaks of the HPP damage.
Siversk Sector (Donbas):Critical. Reports of the 54th and 10th Brigade commanders being relieved suggest a defensive failure. If the loss of Siversk is confirmed, the defensive line in the Donbas will require immediate reorganization to prevent a Russian breakthrough toward Sloviansk.
Kharkiv Sector: Tactical attrition continues. RF Sever Group claims the destruction of a UAF Paladin SPG via FPV drone (1302Z, MoD Russia), indicating high-intensity counter-battery/drone operations near the border.
Konstantinovka/Bakhmut Sector: RF forces ("Okhotnik" unit) are utilizing FPV drones to interdict UAF armor, claiming the destruction of an M-113 APC (1302Z, NM DNR).
Kherson/Southern Sector: High-threat "gray zone" for civilian and military movement along the Dnipro. Increased drone activity is resulting in civilian casualties (Stanislav) and warnings against travel near the riverbanks.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: The RF is effectively using the "post-strike" window to conduct BDA via social media monitoring and follow-on drone strikes. The focus on the Kyiv HPP indicates a shift toward high-value strategic targets that could cause cascading failures in the national power grid.
Sever Group Operations: Continued focus on high-value Western equipment (Paladin) in the Kharkiv direction suggests a priority on degrading UAF long-range fires.
C2 Adaptations: Russian propaganda is quickly capitalizing on UAF internal command changes (Siversk) to amplify narratives of collapse and incompetence.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense & Interception: Mobile fire groups (DPSU) and Air Force units continue to release footage of Shahed interceptions (1227Z, 1300Z). The SBU's Alpha Group is promoting the "Shahedoriz" (Shahed-cutter) program, likely a specialized drone interceptor unit.
Reciprocal Strikes: The 36-UAV wave on Bryansk indicates a significant capacity to project power into RF territory despite the ongoing defense of the national grid.
Internal Security: NABU operations in the government quarter, while routine, indicate ongoing anti-corruption pressure even during active combat operations.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT / DISINFORMATION
Siversk "Loss" Narratives: Pro-RF channels and some Ukrainian aggregators are amplifying the loss of Siversk. Until official confirmation, this remains UNCONFIRMED but likely indicates a severe tactical setback.
Infrastructure Damage Leaks: UAF-aligned channels are aggressively shaming citizens who post video of HPP/TPP strikes, highlighting the critical importance of operational security (OPSEC) for BDA prevention.
Sanctions Coordination: The synchronization of new sanctions with the UK (1301Z) is being used to bolster morale and signal continued international resolve.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-frequency FPV and tactical drone pressure on the Siversk and Kupiansk axes to exploit the reported C2 disruptions. Energy stabilization efforts in Kyiv will continue, but rolling blackouts are highly probable if HPP damage is extensive.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF uses the perceived collapse in the Siversk sector to launch a rapid mechanized push toward the heights overlooking Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, forcing a hasty UAF withdrawal from neighboring sectors.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Siversk FEBA: Immediate confirmation needed on the status of Siversk city center and the current location of the 54th and 10th Brigade HQs.
Kyiv HPP BDA: Determine the operational status of the turbines and dam integrity at Vyshhorod. Assess the impact on the Dnipro cascade.
Bryansk Strike Impact: Identify specific targets (likely oil depots or ammunition storage) of the 36-UAV wave to determine effectiveness of UAF deep-strike operations.
