KYIV STRIKE DAMAGE CONFIRMED (HIGH): Direct impact on a residential building in the Shevchenkivskyi district confirmed; residents reporting significant structural damage (1222Z, RBC-Ukraine, High).
KYIV AIR ALERT CLEARED (HIGH): KMVA issued an all-clear for the capital city at 1216Z (1216Z, KMVA, High).
CONTINUED OWA-UAV TRANSIT (HIGH): Residual UAVs from the overnight/morning wave are tracking East of Obukhiv and toward Cherkasy via the Kremenchuk Reservoir (1213Z, 1222Z, Air Force AFU, High).
COUNTER-ISR SUCCESS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (MEDIUM): 23rd "Khortytsia" Brigade (NGU) successfully neutralized Russian reconnaissance assets ("eyes") and communication nodes on the Zaporizhzhia front (1210Z, South Defense Forces, Medium).
RF DISINFORMATION ESCALATION (MEDIUM): Russian state media (RT) and pro-RF channels are amplifying narratives regarding historical corruption (Kolomoisky/PrivatBank) and the "illegitimacy" of future Ukrainian elections to destabilize domestic morale (1206Z, 1219Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Kotsnews, Medium).
DIPLOMATIC SPECULATION (LOW): Unconfirmed reports of a proposed "peace agreement" involving Trump and Zelenskyy are circulating, though Zelenskyy has publicly reaffirmed "red lines" regarding territory and the ZNPP (1222Z, 1223Z, Tsaplienko/Operatsiya Z, Low).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high following the massive saturation strike. While the immediate kinetic threat to Kyiv city has temporarily abated (all-clear at 1216Z), the RF is maintaining pressure through residual OWA-UAV "leakers" moving toward central Ukraine (Cherkasy). On the ground, the focus has shifted to the Zaporizhzhia sector, where UAF forces are attempting to blind Russian reconnaissance following the Huliaipole breach reported on 26 DEC. Weather conditions remain cold with light snow/slush, impacting mobility but not halting drone operations.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Kyiv/Northern Sector: Recovery operations are underway in the Shevchenkivskyi district. Air Defense (AD) focus has shifted to the southern/eastern outskirts (Obukhiv) as UAVs transit toward the interior.
Zaporizhzhia Sector:Fluid/Active. Following the tactical breach at Huliaipole (26 DEC), the 23rd NGU Brigade is conducting "active defense" by targeting RF tactical C2 and ISR. This is likely an attempt to prevent RF from exploiting the Huliaipole gap by blinding their forward elements.
Central Sector (Cherkasy/Kremenchuk):New Threat Vector. OWA-UAVs are currently utilizing the Kremenchuk Reservoir as a navigation corridor toward Cherkasy (1222Z), likely targeting regional infrastructure or seeking to bypass AD clusters.
Kursk Border (RF): Reciprocal drone activity continues; a civilian death in Glushkovsky District is confirmed by RF sources (1220Z, TASS), corroborating earlier reports of sustained UAF pressure on Russian logistics.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: The RF is transitioning from mass-saturation to a "sustained harassment" phase. By keeping UAVs in the air (Obukhiv/Cherkasy) even after the main missile strike, they force UAF AD to remain active and prevent recovery of personnel.
Information Operations (IO): A coordinated push is visible across RF channels to frame the Ukrainian state as corrupt (Kolomoisky narrative) and politically unstable (election illegitimacy). This aims to decouple Western support by painting Ukraine as a "failed state" regardless of battlefield outcomes.
Internal Security: FSB activity in Kaliningrad against groups defrauding SMO participants (1223Z) suggests persistent internal logistical and financial friction within the RF military-industrial complex.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense: Successfully managed the primary wave, but the transit of drones toward Cherkasy indicates a need for continued vigilance in the central "rear" areas.
Drone Operations: "Bandera" and other specialized units continue high-attrition FPV and drop operations in "zelenka" (vegetated) areas, maintaining pressure on RF infantry despite the winter conditions (1227Z, Bandera Unit, Medium).
Defensive Posture: UAF leadership is publicly defining "red lines" (ZNPP, territorial integrity), signaling a refusal to accept a "frozen conflict" despite diplomatic rumors (1223Z).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT / DISINFORMATION
"Peace Deal" Rumors: Reports from the New York Post regarding a Trump-mediated deal are being utilized by both sides to create uncertainty. Pro-Russian channels are using this to suggest Ukrainian "capitulation" is imminent.
AD Mockery: Pro-RF channel "NgP RaZVedka" is actively mocking Ukrainian AD interception rates (1210Z), a classic psychological operation intended to undermine public trust in military reporting.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Residual UAVs will target energy or transport nodes in the Cherkasy/Poltava regions. RF will likely launch a small-scale "probing" mechanized assault in the Zaporizhzhia sector under the cover of the morning's ISR successes.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF utilizes the data gathered during the saturation strike (AD radar signatures) to launch a precision-guided missile strike (Iskander-M or Kinzhal) against newly identified AD positions in the Kyiv/Chernihiv loop while crews are in a "post-alert" fatigue state.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Huliaipole FEBA: Urgent need for BDA/IMINT on the "Makhno Monument" area to confirm if the RF 57th Bde has established permanent defensive works or is continuing to push North.
Cherkasy Vector: Identify the specific target of the UAVs transiting the Kremenchuk Reservoir (likely the Kaniv Hydroelectric Power Plant or local substations).
COMSEC Status: Follow up on the potential cryptographic compromise of the 106th Brigade (Zaporizhzhia); monitor for any unusual RF tactical movements that suggest they are reading UAF traffic.
