MASSIVE AERIAL ASSAULT (HIGH): The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed a historic-scale overnight attack involving 559 targets (40 missiles and 519 OWA-UAVs). AD forces neutralized 503 targets (1135Z, Air Force AFU, High).
KYIV CASUALTIES & ONGOING THREAT (HIGH): Confirmed 1 KIA and 25 WIA (including 2 children) in Kyiv following overnight strikes (1147Z, 1204Z, RBC-Ukraine/Klychko). A new wave of OWA-UAVs is currently tracking toward Kyiv/Brovary from the north (1154Z, Air Force AFU).
DOBROPILLYA ASSAULT REPELLED (MEDIUM): 1st Corps NGU "Azov" successfully repelled a Russian mechanized breakthrough attempt toward Dobropillya in winter conditions (1203Z, Butusov Plus, Medium).
KUPYANSK CONTRADICTIONS (LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian MoD claims to maintain control of Kupyansk and is "clearing" UAF forces that recently penetrated the area; this contradicts earlier reports of UAF stabilization at the Oskil River (1203Z, Colonelcassad).
INTERNAL CORRUPTION SCANDAL (MEDIUM): MP Yuri Koryavchenkov has been identified as a figure in the NABU bribery investigation, further fuel to domestic political friction during the security crisis (1139Z, Sternenko).
KURSK BORDER KINETIC (MEDIUM): A civilian death reported in Glushkovsky District, Kursk (RF) following a UAF drone drop, indicating continued reciprocal cross-border pressure (1202Z, ASTRA).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by the aftermath of a massive, multi-vector saturation strike (over 550 aerial assets) and the immediate threat of a follow-on UAV wave. While UAF air defenses achieved a ~90% interception rate, the sheer volume of assets (specifically 519 drones) indicates an RF strategy of rapid AD depletion. On the ground, the frontline remains volatile in the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk sectors, with RF forces attempting to exploit the logistical strain caused by the aerial campaign.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Brovary): Under active threat. New UAV detections from the north (1154Z) follow a deadly overnight engagement. Emergency services are processing 25 casualties in the capital.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk Axis): High-intensity mechanized combat. RF forces attempted a breakthrough toward Dobropillya, which was defeated by NGU "Azov." Pro-Russian sources claim UAF forces are surrounded in Dimitrove (Dmytrove) (1147Z, Colonelcassad - UNCONFIRMED), suggesting a potential local encirclement risk if the flank is not reinforced.
Northeastern Sector (Kupyansk): Contested/Fluid. RF MoD claims of "clearing" operations (1203Z) suggest UAF gains reported on 26 DEC are being actively challenged by RF reserves.
Central Sector (Poltava/Myrhorod): Active aerial vector. UAVs tracked moving from the north toward Myrhorod (1152Z), likely targeting the local airfield or energy infrastructure.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF has demonstrated the capacity to launch over 500 UAVs in a single cycle. This "mass-saturation" tactic aims to exhaust interceptor stocks (Patriot/NASAMS) and provide cover for high-precision missile strikes (40 missiles).
Tactical Changes: The use of mechanized assaults in winter conditions (Dobropillya) indicates RF is not pausing operations for the weather, likely attempting to seize key junctions before the ground hardens further or softens into mud.
Logistics: RF continues to utilize holiday-themed propaganda and fundraising (1204Z, Dnevnik Desantnika) to maintain domestic support for the winter offensive.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense: Extreme operational tempo. Successful suppression of 503 targets demonstrates high readiness, but current alerts (1154Z) suggest no respite.
Ground Operations: NGU "Azov" remains a highly effective mobile reserve, successfully interdicting RF mechanized columns.
Counter-Operations: UAF continues drone interdiction in the Russian rear (Kursk/Glushkovsky) to disrupt local logistics and force RF to retain AD assets within their own borders.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT / DISINFORMATION
Corruption Narratives: The naming of MP Koryavchenkov (1139Z) is being amplified by both pro-UA activists (for accountability) and pro-RF channels (to frame the government as "collapsing from within").
Frontline Claims: RF sources are claiming the "surroundment" of UAF in Dmytrove to induce panic and force disorganized retrogrades. UNCONFIRMED.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued OWA-UAV "harassment waves" throughout the day to prevent UAF AD crews from resting and to pinpoint new AD locations for a potential second missile strike tonight.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF "Vostok" or "Center" groups utilize the distraction of the Kyiv strikes to launch a larger mechanized push from the Huliaipole breach (reported 26 DEC) toward the T0518 highway, aiming to collapse the southern shoulder while internal security in Kyiv is focused on the NABU/UDO standoff.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Saturation Strike BDA: Detailed damage assessment of the 56 targets that were NOT intercepted; identify if these hit critical energy nodes or military command centers.
Kupyansk FEBA: Clarify the status of the Oskil River line. Are RF "clearing" operations occurring on the eastern or western bank?
Dobropillya Intentions: Determine if the repelled assault was a probe or the start of a multi-brigade effort to bypass Pokrovsk from the north.
