KINETIC IMPACT IN KYIV (HIGH): Multiple explosions reported in Kyiv (1121Z, RBC-Ukraine). Confirmed strike on a tram depot; visual evidence shows structural damage (1128Z, Tsaplienko). Air defense cleared at 1131Z (KMVA).
INTERNAL SECURITY FRICTION (HIGH): A confrontation is ongoing at the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) as the State Guard (UDO) is actively resisting NABU detectives conducting anti-corruption searches (1131Z, Sternenko; 1132Z, RBC-Ukraine).
ZAPORIZHZHIA EXPLOITATION (MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report continued advances by the "Vostok" Group in the East Zaporizhzhia direction, likely exploiting the previously reported Huliaipole breach (1105Z, Archangel Spetsnaz).
NEW AERIAL VECTOR (HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force reports OWA-UAVs moving from the southeast toward Kremenchuk (1133Z) and from the north toward Kyiv (1109Z).
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY (HIGH): President Zelensky confirmed his meeting with Donald Trump in Florida will be public and media-accessible, emphasizing "red lines" regarding territorial integrity and the Zaporizhzhia NPP (1109Z, 1116Z, Operativnyi ZSU).
UNCONFIRMED HVT ELIMINATION (LOW): Pro-Russian channels claim the liquidation of Denis Kapustin, leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) (1132Z, WarGonzo). No independent verification available.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently characterized by a multi-vector aerial assault on Ukrainian infrastructure (Kyiv and Kremenchuk) and a widening tactical breach in the Southern Sector. Domestically, a high-stakes legal-security standoff in Kyiv between NABU and the State Guard is creating institutional friction while the President is out of the country. Environmental factors in the Russian rear (Moscow) indicate worsening weather (heavy snow) which may impact short-term RF logistical movements but not immediate missile operations.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Sector (Kyiv): Active engagement. A tram depot in the capital was struck by suspected missile or OWA-UAV fire (1128Z, Tsaplienko). This follows the morning's layered drone threat.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
East Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole/Orikhiv Axis): RF "Vostok" units are attempting to build on the tactical breach reported on 26 DEC.
Stepnohirsk: UAF "Vyriy" drone units continue interdiction of RF personnel (1111Z, DeepState), indicating the frontline remains highly contested and fluid.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk): RF drone units (Group "Center") successfully interdicted a UA BM-21 Grad MLRS near Shevchenko (1117Z, Colonelcassad). High-intensity attrition continues in the urban outskirts.
Northeastern Sector (Kupyansk): RF "Zapad" Group has launched a coordinated media campaign to project operational stability following the recent UAF push to the Oskil River (1121Z, Operatsiya Z; 1128Z, MoD Russia).
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is executing a synchronized multi-vector drone/missile strike as predicted in the previous daily report. The timing correlates with President Zelensky's arrival in North America, intended to project UA vulnerability.
Tactical Adaptation: Use of FPV drones for counter-battery fire (targeting Grads) in the Pokrovsk sector remains a high-threat capability.
Logistics: Pro-Russian analysts are monitoring EU/NATO logistics expansion in the Balkans, framing it as a threat to the RF's southwestern flank (1112Z, Two Majors).
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Defensive Measures: UAF Air Defense successfully engaged targets over Kyiv, though kinetic impacts on transport infrastructure (tram depot) indicate saturation remains a risk.
Strategic Communication: President Zelensky has articulated non-negotiable "Red Lines" (Territory, ZNPP) to manage expectations ahead of the public Trump meeting (1116Z, Operativnyi ZSU).
Internal Security: UA anti-corruption efforts (NABU) are continuing despite active resistance from other state security elements (UDO). This indicates a period of high internal volatility (1131Z, Sternenko).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT / DISINFORMATION
Narrative Manipulation: Moscow is raising questions regarding the voting rights of Ukrainians currently in Russia to preemptively delegitimize future Ukrainian elections (1130Z, Tsaplienko).
HVT Rumors: The report of RDK leader Kapustin’s death is likely a morale-degradation operation (1132Z, WarGonzo).
Internal Discord: Pro-Russian channels (e.g., Colonelcassad) are amplifying the NABU-Verkhovna Rada standoff to frame the UA government as fragmented and "puppet-controlled" (1130Z).
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued OWA-UAV/Missile waves targeting energy and transport nodes (Kremenchuk, Odesa) to force a total grid shutdown during the President's trip.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF forces in East Zaporizhzhia exploit the Huliaipole breach to conduct a mechanized push toward the T0518 highway, threatening to envelop UAF defensive positions while internal security services in Kyiv remain preoccupied with the NABU/UDO standoff.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Zaporizhzhia FEBA: Immediate BDA required for East Zaporizhzhia; determine the depth of the "Vostok" Group's penetration beyond Huliaipole.
Kyiv Strike Analysis: Confirm if the tram depot strike utilized new OWA-UAV variants or ballistic assets, given the reported explosions.
NABU/UDO Standoff: Monitor for any transition from legal friction to physical violence at the Verkhovna Rada, which would trigger immediate domestic stability protocols.
