NEW OWA-UAV VECTOR (HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian BpLAs (drones) entering Dnipropetrovsk region from the south, specifically targeting the Kamianske district (Air Force UAF, 1051Z; 1102Z).
ZELENSKY DIPLOMATIC MISSION (HIGH): President Zelensky is en route to the United States, with a confirmed stop in Canada to meet PM Mark Carney and European leaders (РБК-Україна, 1053Z).
RU FUEL EXPORT BAN EXTENDED (MEDIUM): The Russian government has extended the ban on gasoline and diesel exports until February 28, indicating domestic supply stabilization priorities over export revenue (ASTRA, 1042Z).
UNCONFIRMED BLACK SEA THREAT (LOW): Pro-Russian mil-bloggers suggest imminent or ongoing missile activity in the Black Sea region; however, kinetic impact remains unverified (Fighterbomber, 1057Z).
KUPYANSK INFORMATION WARFARE (MEDIUM): RF MoD has released footage of "Zapad" Group forces in the Kupyansk sector to counter earlier reports of a tactical collapse; analysts identify this as a "media anti-crisis" effort to stabilize the narrative (MoD Russia, 1050Z; Филолог в засаде, 1043Z).
UA DOMESTIC STABILITY (MEDIUM): NABU and SAP have finalized the detention of sitting Members of Parliament in the previously reported bribery scandal (Операция Z, 10421; ASTRA, 1052Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has expanded from the Kyiv-centric strike pattern to include a southern aerial vector targeting the Dnipropetrovsk industrial hub. The strategic focus has shifted toward high-level diplomacy as President Zelensky moves toward North America. On the ground, the Kupyansk axis remains the primary kinetic friction point, characterized by heavy information maneuvering by the Russian Ministry of Defense to project control despite tactical volatility.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
Aerial Operations: RF is diversifying its OWA-UAV launch points. The movement of drones from the south into Dnipropetrovsk (Kamianske) suggests an attempt to bypass northern AD concentrations or target dual-use industrial infrastructure (Air Force UAF, 1102Z).
Logistics & Sustainment: The extension of the fuel export ban (ASTRA, 1042Z) suggests the RF is husbanding petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) reserves, likely to mitigate the impact of ongoing Ukrainian strikes on refineries or to ensure winter offensive sustainability.
Naval Vector: Low-confidence reporting (Fighterbomber, 1057Z) indicates potential Kalibr-class missile activity in the Black Sea. While unconfirmed, this aligns with the previous daily report's assessment of a coordinated mass strike.
Tactical Adaptations:
Media Counter-Measures: Following reports of a "catastrophe" in Kupyansk, the RF is utilizing first-hand soldier testimonials (MoD Russia, 1050Z) to project an image of defensive solidity. This indicates a high sensitivity to domestic criticism regarding frontline setbacks.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture & Readiness:
Air Defense: UAF AD units in the Dnipropetrovsk sector are currently engaged with southern-origin UAVs. The persistence of air raid alerts suggests a "layered" drone approach designed to exhaust interceptor stocks.
Strategic Movement: The President’s travel to Canada and the US (РБК-Україна, 1053Z) likely aims to secure long-term ammunition commitments and clarify NATO support tiers ahead of the 2026 budget cycles.
Internal Security: Continued NABU/SAP actions against corruption (1052Z) demonstrate the government's intent to maintain institutional legitimacy despite the ongoing tactical crisis in the East.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda: RU sources are increasingly using localized "civilian" testimonials from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) direction to frame the UA presence as an "occupation" (Rybar, 1059Z). This is a standard hybrid warfare tactic used to soften the environment for potential urban consolidation.
Regional Destabilization: Significant focus is being placed on Moldova (Gagauzia), with RU state media framing legal actions by Chisinau as an attack on autonomy (Rybar, 1044Z), likely intended to stir unrest on Ukraine’s southwestern flank.
Historical Narrative: Chechen leadership is utilizing the anniversary of the 2002 Grozny attacks to reinforce loyalty narratives (Kadyrov_95, 1048Z), serving as a morale-building exercise for Chechen units currently deployed in Ukraine.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
RF will continue OWA-UAV pressure on Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv to fix UA Air Defense assets in the interior, while attempting to consolidate gains in the Kupyansk industrial zones. The fuel export ban suggests a preparation for a protracted high-intensity period through February.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A coordinated multi-vector strike (Black Sea Kalibrs + northern/southern OWA-UAVs) occurs while President Zelensky is in transit, aiming to exploit a perceived C2 delay or to create a symbolic "blackout" during high-level diplomatic meetings in Canada.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Black Sea Munition Status: Confirm the presence of Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates at launch positions to validate Fighterbomber’s claims.
Kupyansk Ground Truth: Request satellite imagery (SAR) of the Oskil river crossings to verify if RF forces have maintained the bridgehead claimed in MoD videos.
Dnipropetrovsk UAV Targets: Identify if the Kamianske drones are targeting the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station or local metallurgical plants to determine the strategic intent of the new southern vector.
