Situation Update (1035Z 27 DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KUPYANSK STATUS DISPUTED (LOW): Contrary to earlier claims of full capture, RF "Zapad" Group now reports repelling UAF counter-attacks attempting to break through to the city (Colonelcassad, 1015Z; Poddubny, 1014Z). Internal RU criticism suggests tactical setbacks for RF forces in this sector (Strelkov, 1004Z).
- NATO BORDER ESCALATION (HIGH): Poland has scrambled combat aircraft and closed airports in Rzeszów and Lublin due to the proximity of RF combined strikes on Ukrainian targets (Басурин о главном, 1003Z).
- KYIV HEAT INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE (HIGH): Approximately 4,000 residential buildings in Kyiv are without heating following energy grid strikes (Два майора, 1003Z).
- ONGOING OWA-UAV THREAT (HIGH): New groups of RU BpLAs (drones) are entering Kyiv airspace from the north; air raid alerts remain active (Air Force UAF, 1005Z; KMVA, 1013Z).
- DOMESTIC CORRUPTION SCANDAL (MEDIUM): NABU and SAP have exposed an organized criminal group involving sitting Ukrainian Members of Parliament for systematic bribery related to legislative voting (РБК-Україна, 1031Z; STERNENKO, 1031Z).
- RDK LEADERSHIP LOSS (HIGH): Reporting confirms the death of Denis Kapustin (Nikitin), commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) (РБК-Україна, 1010Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity RF aerial campaign targeting the Ukrainian capital and the western logistical corridor. The freezing of heat infrastructure in Kyiv (4,000 buildings) creates a humanitarian emergency that mirrors the electrical grid crisis reported at 1005Z. In the East, the "fall" of Kupyansk appears premature; the situation has transitioned to high-mobility urban and peri-urban combat with UAF attempting to regain lost positions. Significantly, the closure of Rzeszów airport—the primary hub for Western military aid—indicates the RF strike package is successfully disrupting NATO-UAF logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
- Strike Operations: RF is maintaining a "rolling" strike posture, following up morning missile volleys with sequential waves of OWA-UAVs (Shahed type) to prevent AD recovery and damage repair (Air Force UAF, 1005Z).
- Zaporizhzhia Exploitation: Following the Huliaipole breach, RF Group "Vostok" (14th Spetsnaz Bde/5th Army) is pushing northwest, successfully interdicting UAF armored vehicles near Tsvetkovoye (Воин DV, 1010Z).
- Kupyansk Axis: RF "Zapad" Group has shifted from an offensive "capture" narrative to a defensive "repel" narrative (Colonelcassad, 1015Z). This indicates UAF has likely committed local reserves to a counter-attack, preventing RF consolidation.
Tactical Adaptations:
- RF is utilizing the threat to Polish airspace to complicate UAF AD intercept geometry, forcing UAF to consider the risk of "cross-border" incidents near Rzeszów.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture & Readiness:
- Counter-Offensive Actions: UAF units are actively contesting the Kupyansk urban area, likely utilizing the Oskil river as a pivot point for local counter-thrusts.
- Resource Constraints: The death of the RDK commander and the RDK's failed counter-attack in Huliaipole (Ref: 1005Z Sitrep) suggests a degradation of specialized light-infantry capabilities in the southern sector.
- Internal Stability: The NABU/SAP investigation into sitting MPs (РБК-Україна, 1031Z) creates a risk of political friction during a period of tactical crisis, though it demonstrates ongoing judicial oversight.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- Conflicting Russian Narrative: The shift from TASS claiming "Kupyansk is ours" to MoD sources claiming "we are repelling attacks" indicates a lack of unified C2 over the information space or a sudden change in battlefield fortunes.
- RF Domestic Security: FSB is prioritizing the suppression of fraud against SVO participants in Kaliningrad, likely to maintain "home front" morale (Kotsnews, 1016Z).
- Propaganda: RU sources are using the Huliaipole situation to mock UAF resistance, claiming the city fell to "three soldiers" (Alex Parker, 1014Z)—a clear exaggeration intended to demoralize UAF forces.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
RF will continue OWA-UAV strikes on Kyiv through the night to ensure the 4,000 buildings without heat remain unserviceable, using "General Winter" as a force multiplier. In Kupyansk, fighting will remain centered on the industrial zones and river crossings without a clear victor in the next 12h.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
RF strikes in the Volyn/Lviv direction cause a kinetic incident involving Polish/NATO assets, or the closure of Rzeszów persists for >24h, causing a critical bottleneck in ammunition supply to the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk fronts during active UAF counter-attacks.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- Rzeszów Airport Closure: Confirm if the closure is due to physical damage, EW interference, or a precautionary NATO posture.
- Kupyansk Control Map: Urgent GEOINT required to delineate the current FEBA within the city; verify if RF has established a bridgehead on the Oskil's western bank.
- Kyiv Critical Failure Points: Identify specific thermal power plants (CHPs) currently offline to estimate the duration of the heat outage.
//REPORT ENDS//
