Situation Report

Situation Update (1005Z 27 DEC 25)

Key updates since last sitrep

• CRITICAL: RUSSIAN CLAIM OF KUPYANSK CAPTURE (MEDIUM): RF MoD and multiple pro-RU sources claim the city of Kupyansk is under full control of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Zapad Group) (TASS, 0941Z; Alex Parker, 0954Z). UAF General Staff reports ongoing "clashes" in the direction of Kupyansk, suggesting the urban center is at minimum severely contested (Liveuamap, 1002Z).
• KYIV TRANSPORT DISRUPTION (HIGH): Significant power deficits have forced operational changes to the Kyiv Metro "Red Line"; 600,000 residents remain without power following the morning's mass strike (RBC-Ukraine, 0948Z; ASTRA, 1001Z).
• BILA TSERKVA CIVILIAN STRIKE (HIGH): Verified OWA-UAV (Shahed) strike on a public bus stop and a Renault dealership resulted in at least one civilian fatality (Tsaplienko, 0938Z, 0941Z).
• HULIAIPOLE COUNTER-ATTACK REPELLED (MEDIUM): Pro-RU sources report a failed UAF/RDK tactical raid or counter-attack in the Huliaipole sector overnight (NgP RaZVedka, 1001Z). This follows the confirmed loss of the city center in the previous 24h.
• DIMITROV (MYRNOHRAD) ENCIRCLEMENT (LOW): Pro-RU "Sparta" battalion claims to be striking UAF equipment within an "encircled" Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) (NM DNR, 0959Z). UNCONFIRMED; UAF reports high-intensity clashes but no confirmation of encirclement.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. Kupyansk Axis (Eastern Sector): The situation has deteriorated significantly. RF forces have moved from "sustained pressure" (0928Z Sitrep) to claiming full control of the city. Visual evidence shows RF soldiers within urban areas (Alex Parker, 0954Z). UAF reporting indicates engagements are shifting toward Petropavlivske and Novoplatonivka, which suggests a possible UAF retrograde to secondary lines west of the city or along the Oskil riverbank (Liveuamap, 1002Z).

2. Pokrovsk/Kramatorsk Axis (Donetsk Sector): High-intensity combat persists. UAF reports engagements across a wide front including Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhivka (Liveuamap, 1002Z). The use of RU "Sparta" drone units to interdict UAF light vehicles (quads) in Myrnohrad indicates RU forces have achieved fire control over internal city GLOCs (NM DNR, 0959Z).

3. Zaporizhzhia Sector (Huliaipole/Orikhiv): Following the loss of the Huliaipole city center (Ref: Daily Report), UAF attempted a localized counter-offensive involving RDK elements, which RU sources claim was repelled (NgP RaZVedka, 1001Z). UAF GS reports continued clashes near Varvarivka and Solodke (Liveuamap, 1002Z).

4. Northern/Border Sector (Sumy/Kursk): UAF successfully repelled three RF assaults in the Kursk/North Slobozhansky direction (Liveuamap, 1003Z). This remains a static but resource-intensive holding action.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Aviation/Strike: RF aviation is maintaining a high sortie rate, conducting strikes in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk (Pokrovske), Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson (Odradokamyanka) (Liveuamap, 1002Z). This indicates a shift from the morning's strategic missile strike to tactical close air support (CAS) to exploit breakthroughs.
• Tactical Adaptation: RU forces are increasingly using "Geran" (Shahed) OWA-UAVs for opportunistic targeting of civilian infrastructure (bus stops/dealerships) to induce local panic and logistical friction (Alex Parker, 0943Z).
• Internal Security: FSB activity in Kaliningrad and arrests in Donetsk (Colonelcassad, 1003Z) suggest a heightened RF focus on rear-area security and the suppression of pro-Ukrainian sentiment within occupied territories.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Defensive Operations: UAF is conducting high-intensity defensive actions across 10+ named directions in the East and South.
• Casualty Evacuation (CASEVAC): Visual evidence confirms difficult CASEVAC operations in winter conditions, with units transporting wounded over long distances (30km+) on foot/stretchers (Butusov Plus, 0948Z).
• Civilian Infrastructure: Kyiv municipal authorities are modifying metro schedules to maintain basic transit despite grid instability (RBC-Ukraine, 0948Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• "Kupyansk is Russian": RU state media (TASS) and milbloggers are flooding the space with claims of Kupyansk's fall to consolidate the narrative before UAF can provide visual counter-evidence.
• Morale Operations: Pro-RU channels are highlighting the "unsuccessful counter-attack" in Huliaipole specifically to mock the RDK following the death of their commander (NgP RaZVedka, 1001Z).
• Domestic Distraction: RU "soft" news (Moscow Zoo reindeer promotion) is being interspersed with combat reports to maintain a sense of "normalcy" within the RF domestic space (Moscow News, 0957Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Kupyansk and push toward the Oskil river crossings to finalize control of the eastern bank. Grid instability in Kyiv will worsen as peak evening loads hit the damaged substations.
• MDCOA: RF leverages the reported "encirclement" in Myrnohrad (Dimitrov) to collapse the Pokrovsk defensive pocket, forcing a wide-scale UAF withdrawal from the Donetsk salient.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Kupyansk FEBA: Urgent need for GEOINT/SIGINT to confirm if UAF still holds any presence in Western Kupyansk or if the Oskil bridges have been destroyed.
2. Myrnohrad Encirclement: Verify the "encirclement" claim by the "Sparta" battalion. Determine if GLOCs into Myrnohrad remain viable for resupply/evacuation.
3. Zaporizhzhia Reserves: Identify if RF is moving the "Vostok Group" reserves (as predicted in the Daily Report) to exploit the Huliaipole breach toward Orikhiv.

//REPORT ENDS//