CONFIRMED MASS MISSILE/UAV STRIKE (HIGH): RF forces conducted a "massive strike" using long-range ground, air, and sea-based precision weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and 500+ UAVs (MoD Russia, 0915Z; Операція Z, 0919Z).
KYIV ENERGY GRID CRIPPLED (HIGH): Emergency and emergency-schedule power outages are in effect across Kyiv and the surrounding oblast; approximately 600,000 consumers are currently without power (РБК-Україна, 0916Z; 0930Z).
URBAN CASUALTIES IN KYIV (HIGH): A strike on a residential building in the Shevchenkivskyi district has resulted in 28 injured (13 hospitalized) and at least 1 confirmed fatality (РБК-Україна, 0909Z, 0913Z, 0934Z).
RDK LEADERSHIP LOSS (MEDIUM): Ukrainian and Russian sources now both report the death of Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) commander Denis Kapustin (Nikitin) in combat (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 0909Z; Kotsnews, 0910Z).
ONGOING UAV THREAT - NORTHEAST (MEDIUM): UAF Air Force confirms new OWA-UAV (Shahed) vectors moving toward Sumy from the northeast (AFU Air Force, 0911Z).
KUPYANSK PRESSURE (MEDIUM): RF Zapad Group claims fire damage to UAF 14th, 44th, 95th, and 3rd Assault Brigades near Podoly and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, indicating sustained pressure on the Oskil River line (MoD Russia, 0928Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Strategic Rear: The air raid alert has ended (КМВА, 0921Z). Efforts are focused on SAR (Search and Rescue) in the Shevchenkivskyi district and stabilizing the grid. While the immediate missile threat has abated, the destruction of energy infrastructure is significant.
Bila Tserkva: Confirmed OWA-UAV strike near a public bus stop (Оперативний ЗСУ, 0931Z). This corroborates earlier reports of industrial/warehouse strikes but highlights the high risk to civilian bystanders.
Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): Kharkiv AD successfully intercepted a UAV over the Slobidskyi district (Синєгубов, 0926Z). However, a new wave of drones is entering Sumy airspace, suggesting the RF is maintaining a "rolling" drone presence to keep AD systems active.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk): RF forces are utilizing the Zapad Group to target UAF mechanized and assault elements. The intensity of fire damage reported near Kupyansk-Uzlovoy suggests an attempt to disrupt UAF logistics following the UAF's recent reach to the Oskil River (Ref: Daily Report).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/Missile: RF MoD has shifted narrative to "retaliatory strikes" (Votvetna), explicitly naming Kinzhal hypersonic missiles as the primary tool for bypassing current AD bubbles (ТАСС, 0907Z; MoD Russia, 0915Z). The use of sea-based Kalibrs alongside Kinzhals indicates a highly synchronized multi-domain launch.
Logistics: The extension of the fuel export ban to Feb 2026 is confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, 0907Z). This supports the assessment of a shift toward a long-term total war economy.
Tactical Changes: The RF "Zapad" group is increasingly integrating fire missions against specific UAF assault brigades, likely attempting to prevent UAF from consolidating gains along the Oskil River.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successfully cleared the Kyiv Oblast of immediate UAV threats by 0922Z (Николаевский Ванёк). AD units in Kharkiv remain high-readiness, as evidenced by the Slobidskyi interception.
Civilian Defense/Recovery: State Emergency Services and DTEK are executing emergency protocols. 600,000 consumers are the current priority for restoration (РБК-Україна, 0930Z).
Diplomatic: Preparations for the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting continue, with reports indicating a focus on specific security frameworks (РБК-Україна, 0908Z).
Information environment / disinformation
RDK Narrative: The confirmed death of Kapustin is being heavily utilized by pro-RU channels (Kotsnews, 0910Z) to project a "liquidation of leadership" success. The confirmation by a prominent Ukrainian journalist (Butusov) validates the fact but also risks a localized morale dip for volunteer units.
Industrial Sabotage Framing: Pro-RU sources (Alex Parker, 0921Z) are framing the strike on the Renault dealership in Bila Tserkva as "economic competition" or "leaving the market," a clear attempt to mask the kinetic targeting of civilian-proximate infrastructure.
Retaliation Justification: All RU state media (TASS, MoD) are synchronized on the "terrorist attack response" narrative to justify the strike on the Ukrainian energy grid to international and domestic audiences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to use the new OWA-UAV wave in Sumy to probe for gaps in the northern AD belt, while engineering crews in Kyiv struggle to bypass destroyed substations. Expect continued emergency blackouts.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the current AD depletion and grid instability, RF launches a second wave of Kinzhals or Iskanders specifically targeting the repair crews or the 750kV nodes while they are being serviced.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Grid Integrity: Need technical assessment of the specific substations hit in Kyiv to determine if the 600k outage is a "soft" trip or "hard" structural damage.
RDK Command: Identify the successor for Denis Kapustin to assess the continued viability of RDK operations in the northern border regions.
Krichev-6 Activity: Continued lack of visual confirmation on "Oreshnik" launchers in Belarus despite the confirmed Kinzhal usage elsewhere. Priority: Satellite/SIGINT on Krichev-6.
