MASSIVE AERIAL OFFENSIVE (HIGH): Ukrainian sources report a coordinated strike involving approximately 500 OWA-UAVs and 40 missiles, with Kyiv identified as the primary target (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 0855Z; Оперативний ЗСУ, 0852Z).
STRATEGIC WEAPONRY DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM): Reports indicate the possible deployment of Russian "Oreshnik" hypersonic missiles to the Krichev-6 site in Belarus, citing satellite imagery analysis (ASTRA, 0903Z).
NATO BORDER ESCALATION (HIGH): Poland has closed Lublin and Rzeszów airports and scrambled fighter aircraft in response to the proximity and scale of Russian strikes (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 0836Z; Два майора, 0852Z).
UAV VECTOR SHIFT (HIGH): OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) have been detected moving from the northeast toward Zhytomyr, indicating a widening of the strike corridor (AFU Air Force, 0846Z, 0852Z).
INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE - BILA TSERKVA (MEDIUM): Russian sources claim the destruction of a Renault dealership and warehouses in Bila Tserkva, alleging use for military storage (Colonelcassad, 0845Z).
RF ECONOMIC MOBILIZATION (HIGH): Russia has extended its temporary ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel until February 28, 2026, suggesting preparation for prolonged high-intensity fuel consumption (ТАСС, 0902Z).
LEADERSHIP LIQUIDATION CLAIM (UNCONFIRMED - LOW): Continued Russian reports regarding the death of RDK leader Denis Kapustin; remains uncorroborated by independent or Ukrainian sources (Старше Эдды, 0855Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Strategic Rear: The capital remains under high-intensity aerial bombardment. President Zelenskyy confirmed Kyiv is the "main target" of the current wave.
Zhytomyr/Western Sector: A new wave of OWA-UAVs has entered the Zhytomyr airspace from the northeast, likely aiming to bypass Kyiv's dense AD bubble or target regional energy nodes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): While fighting continues following the Huliaipole breach (Ref: Daily Report), UAF Southern Defense Forces report significant enemy attrition over the last 24 hours: 330 personnel, 2 tanks, and 4 AFVs (Сили оборони Півдня України, 0849Z).
Belarusian Axis: Intelligence indicates Belarus is now a primary launch/transit point for both OWA-UAVs and potentially hypersonic assets (Oreshnik), significantly shortening the reaction time for UAF AD in Northern/Western Ukraine.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/Missile: RF is employing a "Saturation-First" doctrine, using a massive volume of UAVs (500+) to deplete AD interceptors before or during missile arrivals. The reported presence of "Oreshnik" missiles in Belarus represents a Tier-1 escalatory threat.
Tactical Adaptations: RF Spetsnaz sources indicate continued "evolution" of drone technology, likely referring to the fiber-optic wired FPVs previously noted in Kharkiv (Архангел Спецназа, 0902Z).
Logistics: The extension of the fuel export ban (ТАСС, 0902Z) is a strong indicator that the RF Ministry of Defense expects domestic demand to remain at peak levels through Q1 2026, prioritizing military sustainment over export revenue.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Units are actively engaged across the Kyiv and Zhytomyr sectors. The endurance of AD crews is being tested by the 9+ hour alarm duration.
Counter-Battery/Tactical Strikes: The 46th Air Assault Brigade confirmed successful strikes on RF mortars, infantry, and tactical drones, maintaining localized pressure despite the broader aerial offensive (46 окрема аеромобільна, 0903Z).
Strategic Communication: High-level focus is shifting toward the upcoming Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, prioritizing security guarantees and the status of the ZNPP (РБК-Україна, 0841Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: Pro-RU channels are heavily amplifying the "liquidation" of RDK leader Kapustin to offset news of high RF vehicle losses in the south.
NATO Framing: RU media (Rybaрь) is generating alarmist narratives about NATO integration in Albania/Kosovo (0846Z) to frame the Ukraine conflict as part of a broader "inevitable" European war.
Humanitarian Narratives: Russian MoD is highlighting awards for NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) Protection regiments, a common signaling tactic used to imply the "threat" of Ukrainian unconventional use or to justify Russian "defensive" positioning (MoD Russia, 0835Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation over Zhytomyr and Western Ukraine to force the relocation of AD assets away from Kyiv, potentially followed by a second missile wave targeting the now-identified gaps.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A "demonstration" launch of an Oreshnik missile from Belarus toward a high-value target in Western Ukraine or the Polish border to test NATO's integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) response.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Oreshnik Verification: Urgent requirement for ELINT/SIGINT confirmation of "Oreshnik" associated telemetry or support equipment at Krichev-6.
Huliaipole FEBA: Clarify if the 330 RF casualties reported by Southern Forces occurred during a UAF counter-attack or a failed RF exploitation of the Huliaipole center.
Polish Airspace Status: Monitor for any "Hot Pursuit" incidents or accidental airspace violations by RF missiles/UAVs near the Rzeszów corridor.
