CRITICAL UTILITY COLLAPSE - KYIV (HIGH): Emergency blackouts implemented citywide; water pressure significantly dropped on the Left Bank due to power infrastructure damage (KCMA, 0815Z; Klitschko, 0832Z; RBK-Ukraina, 0834Z).
EXTENDED AIR OPERATIONS (HIGH): Kyiv air alarm duration has exceeded 9 consecutive hours; OWA-UAV (Shahed) threats remain active over Bila Tserkva, Brovary, and Irpin (RBK-Ukraina, 0833Z; AFU Air Force, 0821Z).
POLISH AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS (HIGH): Lublin and Rzeszów airports closed "for security reasons," likely indicating high-intensity kinetic activity or high-value logistical movement near the border (Colonelcassad, 0833Z).
FIBER-OPTIC FPV DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM): RF 79th MSP (North Grouping) confirmed using fiber-optic (wired) FPV drones in Kolodeznoe, Kharkiv region, neutralizing UAF EW advantages (Colonelcassad, 0823Z).
FATALITY CONFIRMED (HIGH): One fatality confirmed in the Kyiv region following the overnight missile/drone wave (ASTRA, 0805Z; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0817Z).
LEADERSHIP LIQUIDATION CLAIM (UNCONFIRMED - LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the elimination of RDK leader Denis Kapustin in Zaporizhzhia; no independent corroboration (Dnevnik Desantnika, 0816Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Strategic Rear: The humanitarian crisis has escalated from a heating failure to a synchronized power and water deficit. Emergency blackouts now encompass the Boryspil and Brovary districts (RBK-Ukraina, 0829Z). OWA-UAVs continue to loiter, targeting the southern and eastern approaches (Bila Tserkva).
Kharkiv/Northern Sector: RF forces are utilizing technologically advanced fiber-optic drones in the Kolodeznoe area. This represents a tactical adaptation to high-density UAF electronic warfare (EW) environments, allowing precision strikes without signal degradation (Colonelcassad, 0823Z).
Zaporizhzhia/Southern Sector: Situation remains fluid following the Huliaipole breach (Ref: Daily Report). Psychological operations are intensifying regarding the purported loss of RDK leadership to demoralize volunteer formations.
International/Logistical Rear: The closure of Polish airports (Rzeszów/Lublin) is a significant anomaly. This likely correlates with the massive aerial activity over Ukraine or a perceived threat to NATO-adjacent logistical hubs.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactics: RF is employing a "Saturation and Attrition" model. By maintaining air alarms for 9+ hours with OWA-UAVs, they force UAF AD to remain active while simultaneously striking energy nodes to collapse urban life support (water/heat).
Technological Adaptation: The confirmed use of fiber-optic FPVs in Kharkiv suggests RF is successfully bypassing local EW bubbles. This capability allows for terminal guidance in high-interference zones.
Strategic Intent: The focus on the Kyiv Left Bank and surrounding districts (Boryspil/Brovary) suggests an intent to isolate the capital from its eastern logistical and energy feeder lines.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: Air Defense units remain engaged in a high-intensity, long-duration effort to intercept the "Shahed" loitering munitions currently vectoring toward Bila Tserkva (AFU Air Force, 0835Z).
Grid Mitigation: Ukrenergo and KCMA are conducting "forced emergency shutdowns" to prevent a total cascading failure of the regional energy system.
Information Defense: UAF channels are emphasizing the danger of "downed" Shaheds to manage civilian expectations and safety (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0822Z).
Information environment / disinformation
RDK Liquidation Narrative: Persistent pro-RU claims of Kapustin’s death (Dnevnik Desantnika, 0816Z) serve to mask the high RF attrition in the Zaporizhzhia sector and depress volunteer morale.
Economic Attrition: RU state media is amplifying narratives regarding Ukrainian scrap metal exports (Operatsiya Z, 0835Z) to project an image of a "looted" and failing national economy.
Internal RF Messaging: High-profile announcements regarding the closure of Red Square for New Year's (TASS, 0821Z) suggest heightened internal security concerns within the RF.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued OWA-UAV loitering over Kyiv/Central Ukraine to prevent utility repairs, followed by a localized ground push in the Kharkiv (Kolodeznoe) sector to exploit fiber-optic drone successes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A high-speed cruise missile or ballistic strike targeting the Rzeszów/Lublin logistical corridor, capitalizing on the currently high AD saturation in Western Ukraine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Polish Airport Closures: Immediate clarification required on the specific "security reason" for the Rzeszów/Lublin closure. Is this a reaction to a detected missile threat or a proactive measure for high-value asset transit?
Fiber-Optic FPV Proliferation: Assess the scale of fiber-optic drone deployment. Is this limited to the 79th MSP or is it a broader Vostok/Zapad grouping capability?
Bila Tserkva Target Set: Identify if the current UAV wave toward Bila Tserkva is targeting the military airfield or remaining energy substations.
