KYIV HEATING COLLAPSE (HIGH): Scale of failure confirmed at 2,600+ residential buildings, 187 kindergartens, 138 schools, and 22 social institutions without central heating (Klitschko, 0800Z; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0805Z).
ODESA PORT STRIKES (HIGH): RF conducted combined OWA-UAV and aerial bomb strikes targeting industrial and port infrastructure in Odesa (RBK-Ukraina, 0742Z).
POKROVSK DEFENSIVE SUCCESS (HIGH): NGU 4th Brigade "Rubizh" successfully repelled a mechanized assault, destroying several units including "turtle tanks" via FPV drones (Butusov Plus, 0737Z).
CASUALTY INCREMENTS (HIGH): Kyiv injuries risen to 19 (Klitschko, 0756Z); one female fatality confirmed in Bila Tserkva district, Kyiv region (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0738Z; RBK-Ukraina, 0751Z).
NEW CAPABILITY DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM): Reports indicate Sweden is testing the "Kreuger 100" anti-drone interceptor UAV in the Ukrainian theater (Dva Mayora, 0803Z; DS Belief: 0.21).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Strategic Rear: The humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly. Kinetic impact on a residential building in the Darnytskyi district confirms the strike package is not limited to the Left Bank (KMVA, 0750Z). Energy deficits persist on the Left Bank of the Kyiv region (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0803Z).
Odesa/Southern Sector: RF has expanded the target set from the national energy grid to maritime logistics. Strikes on port infrastructure (0742Z) suggest an attempt to disrupt the "grain corridor" or military maritime receipt points.
Pokrovsk-Dobropillia Axis: RF continues high-intensity mechanized assaults. The use of "monster barns" (modularly armored tanks) indicates a persistent requirement to counter UAF FPV dominance, though recent footage shows these are still vulnerable to concentrated drone strikes (Butusov Plus, 0737Z).
Lyman Sector: RF is utilizing TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems in forested areas to clear UAF defensive positions, indicating a localized uptick in offensive tempo (Colonelcassad, 0803Z).
Kharkiv/Staryi Saltiv: RF strikes targeted infrastructure in Staryi Saltiv to interdict UAF logistics/supply lines (Colonelcassad, 0747Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactics: RF is demonstrating a coordinated multi-vector assault. While OWA-UAVs continue to fix air defenses in the North (Kyiv), tactical aviation is striking logistical hubs in the East (Staryi Saltiv) and maritime infrastructure in the South (Odesa).
Thermobaric Employment: The use of TOS-1A near Lyman suggests RF is prioritizing the "flushing" of UAF infantry from fortified treelines where traditional artillery has been insufficient.
Internal Security (Occupied): FSB activity in Donetsk remains high, with the arrest of a local woman for "pro-Ukrainian" digital activity, signaling an ongoing crackdown on HUMINT networks (TASS, 0746Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF NGU units (4th Bde) maintain high proficiency in FPV-based anti-armor operations, successfully neutralizing "turtle tanks" which are otherwise difficult to stop with light anti-tank weapons.
Emergency Management: Kyiv municipal authorities are triaging over 2,600 buildings without heat. The focus is on critical social infrastructure (schools/hospitals).
Technical Integration: Integration of Swedish anti-drone interceptors (Kreuger 100) suggests a move toward more cost-effective UAV-on-UAV engagement to preserve expensive AD missiles.
Information environment / disinformation
RDK Morale Operations: Pro-Russian channels continue to saturate the environment with the "liquidation" of RDK leader Kapustin to depress volunteer recruitment (Dva Mayora, 0758Z).
FSB "Traitors" Narrative: State media is highlighting the arrest of Donetsk residents to project an image of total control over the information space in occupied territories (TASS, 0746Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued focus on Odesa port infrastructure to exploit the current AD saturation caused by the Kyiv strikes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploitation of the TOS-1A strikes in the Lyman sector to launch a sudden mechanized breakthrough while UAF attention is divided by the strategic rear crisis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Odesa Damage Assessment: Determine the extent of damage to port loading infrastructure and its immediate impact on maritime export capacity.
Lyman Sector Strength: Monitor for the movement of RF mechanized reserves (specifically from the "North" grouping) toward the Lyman/Staryi Saltiv axis.
Kreuger 100 Efficacy: Collect data on the successful intercept rate of the Swedish anti-drone systems against Geran-2/Shahed profiles.
