KYIV HEATING CRISIS (HIGH): Approximately 33% of Kyiv is without heat following overnight strikes. SMOG/heavy smoke reported over the city (RBK-UA, 0709Z; Klitschko, 0710Z; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0711Z).
EMERGENCY BLACKOUTS (HIGH): DTEK has implemented emergency power shutdowns on the Left Bank of Kyiv (RBK-UA, 0706Z).
CASUALTY ESCALATION (HIGH): Confirmed casualties in Kyiv have risen to 11, including two children (KMVA, 0727Z; Klitschko, 0718Z).
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS (HIGH): Kinetic impact confirmed on the National Aviation University (NAU) dormitory and a 25-story residential building in the Dniprovskyi district (RBK-UA, 0714Z; KMVA, 0715Z).
KAPUSTIN DEATH VERIFICATION (HIGH): Pro-Russian sources now claim the "Russian Volunteer Corps" (RDK) has confirmed the death of its founder, Denis Kapustin, in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Colonelcassad, 0722Z; Rybar, 0722Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA ENGINEERING SUPPRESSION (MEDIUM): RF 35th Army UAV operators successfully targeted Ukrainian engineering groups attempting to establish defensive lines west of Huliaipole near Hulyaypilske (Voin DV, 0730Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv (Strategic Rear): The sector remains under active OWA-UAV saturation. New groups of UAVs are reported inbound as of 0728Z (Air Force ZSU). The focus of the Russian strike package has successfully shifted from purely electrical distribution to the thermal heating grid, significantly increasing the humanitarian burden during winter.
Zaporizhzhia Front: Following the seizure of Huliaipole city center (see Daily Report), Russian forces are conducting active reconnaissance and fire correction to prevent UAF from consolidating a secondary line of defense. The strike on engineering units at Hulyaypilske (0730Z) indicates RF intent to maintain momentum toward the west/northwest.
Crimea: The air raid alert in Sevastopol was cleared at 0718Z (Colonelcassad). No kinetic impacts were reported, suggesting either a successful interception or a feint by UAF aerial/maritime assets to test the degraded AD gap.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactics: RF is employing a "compounding effects" strategy in Kyiv. By striking thermal power and causing smog, they are creating a multi-domain emergency (health, energy, and visibility/C2 interference). In the South, they are using precision FPV/UAV strikes to interdict UAF engineering efforts, suggesting a move to prevent "fortress" construction in the rear of the Huliaipole breach.
Air Domain: OWA-UAVs (Geran/Shahed) continue to be the primary tool for saturation. The presence of "mopeds" (UAVs) remains active over the capital (Vanyok, 0735Z).
Information Operations: RU channels are aggressively framing the Kyiv smog as "toxic smoke" (Colonelcassad, 0735Z) to incite panic and portray the Kyiv administration ("gaulyaiter") as incompetent or secretive about the nature of the targets hit.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Ongoing engagements over the Kyiv metropolitan area. Defensive posture is being adjusted for the Belarusian transit vector identified in previous reports.
Engineering/Sustainment: UAF engineering units are attempting to fix the FEBA (Forward Edge of Battle Area) west of Huliaipole but are under heavy UAV surveillance and fire.
Civil Defense: DSNS and municipal authorities are managing a mass heating failure affecting over 1 million residents.
Information environment / disinformation
RDK Narrative: The death of Kapustin is being heavily utilized by Russian state media to signal the "liquidation" of irregular units, likely intended to demoralize pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteer formations.
Kyiv Smog: Russian propaganda is attempting to link the smog to "toxic" hits, possibly to mask the fact that residential and educational infrastructure (NAU Dormitory) was targeted.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Persistent OWA-UAV pressure on Kyiv to prevent damage assessment and repair of the heating/power grid. In Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces will likely launch probing attacks toward Hulyaypilske to exploit the disrupted engineering works.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A second wave of cruise missiles targeting the specific CHPP (Combined Heat and Power) plants responsible for the remaining 66% of Kyiv’s heating while the grid is in "emergency" status.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia FEBA: Clarify if UAF has successfully established a cohesive blocking position west of Hulyaypilske or if RF mechanized units have achieved a breakthrough.
Kyiv Heat Infrastructure: Identify the specific CHPP or pumping stations neutralized to cause the 33% loss in heating.
Bielarus Vector: Monitor for any secondary launches or increased aviation activity from Belarusian airfields (Baranovichi/Luninets) that could indicate a follow-on strike.
