KYIV GRID EMERGENCY (HIGH): "Kyiv Digital" reports emergency power shutdowns; previous schedules are no longer valid due to ongoing kinetic impacts on the energy distribution network (RBK-UA, 0636Z, HIGH).
KYIV CASUALTIES & CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH): Eight confirmed casualties in Kyiv (5 hospitalized). Impacts confirmed on a university dormitory (Solomyanskyi), multiple residential high-rises (Dniprovskyi, Desnyanskyi, Shevchenkivskyi), and a transport/logistics depot (Klitschko, 0640Z; KMVA, 0649Z; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0656Z).
CRIMEAN AIR ALERT (MEDIUM): An air raid alert has been declared in Sevastopol, suggesting potential Ukrainian follow-up strikes following the degradation of Russian AD reported in the last 24h (Colonelcassad, 0701Z).
KAPUSTIN DEATH CORROBORATION (HIGH): Russian state media and pro-Russian military channels have corroborated the death of RDK commander Denis Kapustin in the Zaporizhzhia sector (TASS, 0644Z; Mash, 0703Z).
WESTWARD UAV TRANSIT (MEDIUM): At least one OWA-UAV is currently approaching Khmelnytskyi, indicating the expansion of the strike zone to Western Ukraine (Vanek, 0703Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv (Strategic Rear): The capital remains under active OWA-UAV saturation. The strike on a depot (DEPO) in the Dniprovskyi district (0656Z) is a significant development, potentially impacting local logistics or troop transport if the facility was dual-use.
Zaporizhzhia Front: Tactical situation is characterized by a leadership vacuum in the RDK following Kapustin’s death. Air raid alerts have recently been cleared (0703Z), but the sector remains high-risk following the Huliaipole breach.
Kharkiv Sector: Russian forces are utilizing 2S22 "Malva" self-propelled artillery to target UAF hardware and shelters, indicating continued high-intensity tube artillery pressure (MoD Russia, 0702Z).
Crimea: Sevastopol is currently in an active defensive posture (Air Alert 0701Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactics: RF continues a saturation-to-impact cycle. The shift to "emergency shutdowns" in Kyiv suggests the RF has successfully identified and struck critical nodes that have bypassed localized redundancies.
Equipment: RU MoD highlighted the use of the 1st Guards Tank Army's "Malva" SPGs in the Kharkiv region, suggesting a focus on mobile, high-precision artillery to counter UAF counter-battery fire.
Intentions: The simultaneous strikes on high-rise residential buildings in multiple districts (Solomyanskyi, Dniprovskyi, Shevchenkivskyi) and the "emergency shutdown" of the grid indicate a "total pressure" tactic intended to collapse civilian morale and logistics simultaneously.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Emergency Response: State Emergency Services (DSNS) are currently engaged in high-risk SAR operations in the Dniprovskyi district where an individual is trapped under 5th-floor rubble (0653Z).
Air Defense: Continued engagement of "Shahed" type UAVs; however, the transition to emergency blackouts suggests saturation is reaching critical levels.
Morale/Tradition: Despite the ongoing bombardment, national and local military administrations executed the 09:00 (local) "Minute of Silence" for fallen personnel, maintaining symbolic continuity (GenStaff, 0659Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Framing: Pro-RU channels are heavily promoting a "confession" video of a captured UAF soldier (0635Z) and celebrating the death of Kapustin as the "liquidation of a traitor."
Psychological Ops: RU channels are amplifying the Sevastopol air raid alert to project a "readiness" stance while simultaneously highlighting civilian damage in Kyiv as successful strikes on "terrorist infrastructure."
Internal Security: RU reporting of an FSB arrest in Donetsk for "calls to kill military" (0645Z) suggests ongoing partisan or pro-Ukrainian sentiment in occupied territories that the RF is actively attempting to suppress.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAV strikes will shift toward Western Ukraine (Khmelnytskyi/Lviv) as the "Belarusian vector" noted in the daily report fully activates.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) timed to coincide with the current peak grid instability in Kyiv to cause a total black start event.
Sevastopol: High probability of a Ukrainian maritime or aerial drone strike attempting to exploit the AD gap identified in Crimea.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kyiv Depot Strike: Identify the specific nature of the "DEPO" hit in the Dniprovskyi district. Is it a civilian tram/bus depot or a rail-linked logistics hub for military transit?
Khmelnytskyi Vector: Confirm the number of OWA-UAVs transiting through the Khmelnytskyi/Volyn corridor.
Zaporizhzhia Leadership: Monitor RDK channels for confirmation of a successor to Kapustin to determine the continued viability of irregular force operations in the Huliaipole/Orikhiv sector.
