KYIV AIRSPACE PENETRATION (HIGH): As of 0326Z, at least four OWA-UAVs are directly over the Kyiv metropolitan area. Ingress continues via Vyshhorod (North) and Brovary (East) (Vanyok, 0326Z; AF UAF, 0332Z).
MYKOLAIV BRIDGE THREAT (HIGH): A UAV is specifically tracking toward the Varvarivskyi Bridge in Mykolaiv from the north. This indicates a shift toward interdicting critical Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) (Vanyok, 0325Z; AF UAF, 0324Z).
EXPANSION TO CENTRAL/EASTERN HUBS (HIGH): Concurrent OWA-UAV threats have been confirmed heading toward Poltava (5 units) and Kropyvnytskyi, suggesting a widening of the saturation strike to inland logistics hubs (AF UAF, 0320Z; Vanyok, 0327Z).
TRUMP-ZELENSKY SUMMIT CONFIRMED (MEDIUM): RF state media (citing the White House) reports a scheduled meeting between President-elect Trump and President Zelensky for Sunday at 2000Z in Palm Beach (TASS, 0333Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area:CRITICAL. The saturation attempt reported at 0300Z has transitioned to active terminal-phase maneuvers.
North/Northwest: New ingress via Vyshhorod (0322Z) confirms the persistence of the northern corridor.
East: A group of UAVs has bypassed Brovary, moving directly into the city's inner defense ring (0332Z).
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia):
Mykolaiv: A single UAV is currently threatening the Varvarivskyi Bridge (0325Z), a vital link for Southern operational logistics.
Zaporizhzhia: No new kinetic data since the 0243Z emergency alert, but the sector remains at high readiness following the Huliaipole breach.
Central/Eastern Sector:
Poltava: Significant concentration (5 units) moving from the east (0327Z).
Kropyvnytskyi: One unit detected moving from the east toward the city (0320Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Pattern: The RF is executing a synchronized, multi-axis OWA-UAV wave. The presence of 4-5 units simultaneously over multiple regional centers (Kyiv, Poltava) suggests a high degree of C2 coordination.
Targeting Logic: The focus on the Varvarivskyi Bridge in Mykolaiv suggests the "shaping phase" of this operation now includes tactical interdiction of bridges to complement the expected 0600Z strategic strike on the energy grid.
Air Defense Saturation: By maintaining presence over Kyiv while simultaneously striking Poltava and Mykolaiv, the enemy is attempting to fix UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) in place, preventing the redistribution of AD assets.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Active kinetic engagement is ongoing in the Kyiv, Poltava, and Mykolaiv regions.
Counter-UAV: MFGs are prioritizing the Varvarivskyi Bridge approach to prevent GLOC disruption.
Defensive Posture: All units remain under the high-alert status following the 0243Z Zaporizhzhia alert.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Distraction: RF state media continues to amplify foreign voices (Japanese MP) to project international legitimacy and "power" (TASS, 0312Z) while simultaneously publicizing the Trump-Zelensky meeting timing (0333Z). This is likely intended to create a narrative of inevitable Ukrainian concession during a period of maximum kinetic pressure.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation through 0500Z to deplete AD interceptors. This remains the precursor to the anticipated mass missile launch at 0600Z (as indicated by the 260th GRAU base activity spike).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized missile strikes on the Varvarivskyi Bridge and other key river crossings to isolate UAF groupings in the South, coinciding with the grid-collapse strike.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bridge Integrity: Immediate BDA required if impact occurs at the Varvarivskyi Bridge.
Poltava Vector: Identify if the 5 UAVs are targeting Poltava Air Base or energy infrastructure.
LRA Status: (URGENT) Monitor for Tu-95MS takeoff from Olenya/Engels to confirm the 0600Z launch window.
