KYIV MULTI-VECTOR SATURATION (HIGH): As of 0259Z, OWA-UAVs are penetrating the Kyiv metropolitan area from all cardinal directions. New ingress routes confirmed via Vyshhorod (North) and Obukhiv (South), supplementing the previously reported Brovary (East) and Vorzel (NW) axes (AF UAF, 0243Z, 0259Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR ALERT (MEDIUM): An emergency alert was issued by the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration at 0243Z. While specific details were not provided, this follows the critical tactical breach at Huliaipole reported in the 1600Z Daily Report (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0243Z).
LOSS OF MOBILE ARTILLERY (MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources have released footage claiming the destruction of a UAF 2S1 "Gvozdyka" 122mm self-propelled howitzer by an FPV drone. UNCONFIRMED (Location and date unverified); if confirmed, it highlights the continued threat of RF loitering munitions to UAF fire support assets (Colonelcassad, 0303Z).
RF INTERNAL STABILITY NARRATIVE (LOW): RF state media is shifting focus to domestic social benefits (maternity payments in 2026), likely intended to project a "business as usual" atmosphere to the Russian domestic audience during the ongoing winter offensive (TASS, 0253Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area:CRITICAL. The air situation has deteriorated from a pincer to a full 360-degree saturation attempt.
North: UAVs passing Vyshhorod toward the city center (0259Z).
East/South East: UAVs passing Brovary (0243Z) and Boryspil (previous).
South: New vector detected heading for Obukhiv (0243Z), likely intended to intercept UAF reserves moving toward the city or to strike southern power nodes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): High tension remains following the Huliaipole city center collapse. The 0243Z alert suggests either an incoming aerial threat or a renewal of RF ground probes toward the secondary defensive lines west of the city.
Kharkiv Sector: (Baseline Context) Pressure remains high; no new data on the 2S43 "Malva" deployment since the 0235Z report.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Aerial Tactics: The RF has successfully expanded the UAV ingress envelope. By utilizing the Vyshhorod and Obukhiv corridors simultaneously with Brovary, they are forcing the UAF IADS to defend a 360-degree perimeter, likely aiming to identify a "blind spot" or deplete mobile fire group (MFG) ammunition before the anticipated 0600Z missile wave.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of FPV drones against self-propelled artillery (2S1) indicates RF reconnaissance-strike complexes are actively hunting UAF counter-battery assets to sustain the momentum of their ground offensives in the East and South.
Logistics & Sustainment: The SAR activity at the 2600th GRAU base (Daily Report) remains the primary indicator for a mass missile event. Current UAV activity is assessed as the "shaping phase."
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Active engagements are ongoing across the Kyiv region. IADS is prioritized on the Vyshhorod-Kyiv and Brovary-Kyiv axes.
Maneuver: Following the 0243Z alert in Zaporizhzhia, UAF units in the sector are likely in a high state of readiness, potentially executing the recommended "JAZZ" emergency COMSEC procedures following the loss of the 106th Bde KSP.
Information environment / disinformation
Normalization Operations: TASS reporting on 2026 maternity benefits (0253Z) serves as a cognitive distractor, attempting to decouple the RF domestic reality from the high-intensity kinetic operations currently underway.
External Distraction: Reports of a Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire (RBC-UA, 0305Z) may be utilized by RF-aligned actors to clutter the information space and dilute the focus on the Ukrainian theater during a period of escalation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Kinetic impacts from OWA-UAVs in the Kyiv metropolitan area between 0315Z and 0430Z. This will be followed by a "lull" used for RF battle damage assessment (BDA) prior to the predicted 0600Z missile strike.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The 0243Z Zaporizhzhia alert precedes a mechanized breakthrough attempt from Huliaipole toward Orikhiv, synchronized with the mass air attack to paralyze Ukrainian command and control.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia FEBA: Immediate clarification needed on the 0243Z alert. Is this a localized ground assault or part of the broader aerial wave?
2S1 Attrition: Confirm location of the "Gvozdyka" strike to assess if RF drone teams have bypassed current electronic warfare (EW) screens in specific sectors.
LRA Monitoring (URGENT): Priority collection on Tu-95MS/Tu-160 flight frequency and "Open Sky" indicators for the anticipated 0600Z launch window.
