KYIV UNDER DIRECT UAV ATTACK (HIGH): At 0132Z, AF UAF confirmed an OWA-UAV is directly over Kyiv city. Residents ordered to shelters (AF UAF, 0132Z; RBK-UA, 0133Z).
CONTRADICTORY ALERT STATUS (MEDIUM): A general "All Clear" for the missile threat was issued at 0106Z (Zaporizhzhia ODA, 0106Z; RBK-UA, 0106Z), but was immediately followed by a surge in OWA-UAV (Shahed) detections across five oblasts.
MULTI-VECTOR UAV SWARM (HIGH): New UAV groups detected entering/transiting Chernihiv (0118Z), Poltava (0121Z, 0128Z), Odesa (0124Z), Kharkiv (0126Z), and Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad (0130Z) (AF UAF).
NORTHERN INGRESS TOWARD CENTRAL HUBS (HIGH): UAVs in northern Poltava are tracking toward Pyryatyn (0128Z), a key logistical node on the M03 highway (AF UAF, 0128Z).
SOUTHERN VECTOR EXPANSION (HIGH): A UAV has reached Pivdenne, Odesa Oblast, indicating a coastal/port-focused vector is active alongside the inland Kirovohrad-bound groups (AF UAF, 0124Z, 0130Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: Immediate kinetic threat. One or more OWA-UAVs are currently penetrating the city's terminal defenses. This follows the 0101Z northern approach noted in the previous sitrep.
Northern/Poltava Sector: Active transit corridor. UAVs are moving from southern Chernihiv (Varva) into northern Poltava, likely aimed at the Myrhorod airbase vicinity or transit toward the Dnieper river.
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv): Broad UAV activity across NE and Central Kharkiv heading west. This likely serves to fix AD assets away from the Huliaipole/Donetsk frontline.
Southern Sector: Multi-pronged movement. One vector targets the Odesa port infrastructure (Pivdenne), while another transits Mykolaiv toward the Kirovohrad energy hub.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: The RF is utilizing a "pulsed" attack pattern. By triggering an "All Clear" for missiles at 0106Z while simultaneously flooding the airspace with OWA-UAVs, they are attempting to catch UAF AD in a transition state (rearm/refit) and lower civilian vigilance.
Saturation Logic: The dispersion of UAVs across Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa indicates a deliberate attempt to saturate the IADS (Integrated Air Defense System) ahead of the anticipated Long-Range Aviation (LRA) cruise missile phase.
Capabilities: The presence of a UAV directly over Kyiv despite the heavy AD density in the capital suggests either a low-altitude penetration or a high-volume swarm attempting to overwhelm local point-defense.
Friendly activity (UAF)
IADS Engagement: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and electronic warfare (EW) units are active across the central and northern corridors.
Civil Defense: Re-activation of "Shelter" orders for the capital. The utility crisis in Kyiv remains a critical constraint for civilian response and emergency services.
Information environment / disinformation
Alert Fatigue: The rapid transition from "All Clear" back to "Direct Attack" in Kyiv (26-minute window) is likely a deliberate psychological operation to induce alert fatigue and panic (Dempster-Shafer belief support: 0.0209).
Source Monitoring: Pro-Russian channels (Nikolaevsky Vanek) are providing granular tracking of "mopeds" (UAVs), likely to reinforce the perception of UAF AD helplessness (0120Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The current OWA-UAV swarm will continue to oscillate across central Ukraine for the next 60–90 minutes to drain interceptor stocks. This remains the "shaping" phase for a mass cruise missile launch from Tu-95MS assets, as predicted in the daily report.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Coordinated arrival of cruise missiles while the OWA-UAVs are still over Kyiv/Poltava, forcing IADS to prioritize targets and likely leading to further grid impacts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
LRA Launch Confirmation (CRITICAL): Immediate need for SIGINT/IMINT on Tu-95MS/Tu-160 movement at Olenya/Engels. (Prioritize monitoring of 121.5/4625 kHz frequencies).
UAV Type Verification: Confirm if recent "mopeds" include the newer, "black" carbon-fiber/stealth-coated Shahed variants which complicates thermal/radar tracking.
Huliaipole Ground Status: Urgent update needed on the western outskirts of Huliaipole to see if RF is exploiting the "missile alert" distractions to move heavy UGS/mechanized units.
