ALL-CLEAR ISSUED (HIGH): Official air defense "All Clear" (Відбій загрози) signaled across affected regions at 0103Z, ending the immediate ballistic and UAV pulse (AF UAF, 0103Z).
NORTHERN UAV INGRESS ON KYIV (HIGH): Immediately prior to the all-clear, a new group of UAVs was detected approaching Kyiv from the north at 0101Z (AF UAF, 0101Z).
EXPANSION TO IZYUM AXIS (HIGH): For the first time in this strike cycle, a UAV threat was identified heading toward Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast (AF UAF, 0102Z).
INDICATIONS OF AVIATION SURGE (MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources claim "motors have warmed up" and a "radical alarm" is imminent, suggesting the possible takeoff of strategic aviation (Tu-95MS/Tu-160) for a cruise missile phase (NGP RaZVedka, 0056Z).
SOUTHERN UAV VECTOR PERSISTS (HIGH): UAVs tracked through northern Mykolaiv toward Kirovohrad as of 0049Z (AF UAF, 0049Z).
INTEGRATION OF UGS (MEDIUM): Russian forces are signaling increased deployment of Unmanned Ground Systems (UGS) within ground combat units (Colonelcassad, 0103Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: The ballistic threat from Bryansk has subsided for the current window. However, the capital remains in a critical utility crisis (no power/water). A localized UAV ingress from the north was neutralized or passed prior to the 0103Z all-clear.
Kharkiv/Izyum Sector: New activity detected. The targeting of Izyum suggests an attempt to disrupt logistical lines supporting the Oskil River defensive positions mentioned in the 24h summary.
Central/Southern Corridor: UAVs are transiting Kirovohrad Oblast. This vector remains a secondary "distraction" or "fixation" axis to strain AD density.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The massive coordinated strike predicted in the daily report (260th GRAU base activity) is currently in a transitional lull. Following the ballistic "pulse" targeting Kyiv's grid, the AF UAF has issued a general all-clear. However, environmental conditions in Kyiv remain severe due to sub-zero temperatures and utility failures. The "All Clear" likely marks the conclusion of the initial OWA-UAV/Ballistic suppression phase before a primary cruise missile salvo.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is likely conducting a "damage assessment and reload" window. The warning from NGP RaZVedka (0056Z) regarding "motors warming up" is a classic indicator of Long Range Aviation (LRA) activity.
Tactical Adaptation: The inclusion of Izyum in the target list indicates a broadening of the strike geometry to include tactical/operational GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) in the East, moving beyond purely strategic infrastructure.
Unmanned Ground Systems (UGS): The promotion of UGS integration (Colonelcassad, 0103Z) suggests RF may soon deploy these systems in the Huliaipole sector to exploit the recent tactical breach without risking high infantry casualties.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Postures: IADS units are likely transitioning to a "rearm and refit" posture during the all-clear. Grid failures in Kyiv continue to complicate local C2.
Recent Successes: Effective tracking of multi-vector UAV groups (North, South, and East) despite the complexity of the "pulsed" ballistic arrival.
Constraints: High consumption of AD interceptors during the 0011Z ballistic wave.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Psychological Operations: RF channels are alternating between "peace-washing" (NGP RaZVedka's "Stop the hate" message at 0042Z) and overt threats ("Radical alarm" at 0056Z) to keep Ukrainian civilians and decision-makers in a state of cognitive flux.
Morale: The 0103Z "All Clear" provides temporary respite, but the utility blackout in the capital remains the primary driver of civilian distress.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A heavy cruise missile salvo (Kh-101/555) launched from LRA assets (Tu-95MS) currently "warming up." Expected time of arrival (TOA) in Ukrainian airspace: 0230Z – 0400Z.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the AD depletion in the North to launch a coordinated UGS/Mechanized assault in the Huliaipole sector, leveraging the captured 106th Bde COMSEC data to mask their movement.
Timeline:
T+60 mins (0200Z): Potential confirmation of LRA takeoffs from Olenya or Engels airbases.
T+120 mins (0300Z): Arrival of cruise missiles at the "border entry" points.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The "All Clear" at 0103Z should be treated as a tactical pause, not a termination of hostilities. All indicators (GRAU logistical surge, LRA motor warm-ups, and the systematic targeting of the Kyiv grid) point toward a secondary, more massive strike involving cruise missiles before dawn.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Strategic Aviation Tracking (Priority 1): Immediate SIGINT/IMINT confirmation of Tu-95MS/Tu-160 status at Engels-2 and Olenya.
Kyiv Grid BDA: Detailed damage assessment of the 0010Z ballistic impacts. Is the blackout regional (protective) or local (kinetic damage)?
Huliaipole FEBA: Monitor for UGS deployment on the western outskirts of Huliaipole to confirm the integration of robotic systems into the breakthrough effort.
