RENEWED BALLISTIC WAVE (HIGH): Multiple high-speed targets launched from the Bryansk region (RF) toward Kyiv between 0011Z and 0013Z, indicating a secondary pulse of the coordinated strike (Nikolaevsky Vanyok, 0011Z; AF UAF, 0011Z; RBC-UA, 0013Z).
KYIV UTILITY DISRUPTION (HIGH): Confirmed widespread reports of power outages and water supply failure across Kyiv following the terminal phase of the missile wave (NGP RaZVedka, 0006Z).
TARGET EXPANSION TO ZHYTOMYR (HIGH): Air threats have expanded westward, with high-speed targets and cruise missiles tracked toward Zhytomyr and Korostyshiv (AF UAF, 0006Z, 0007Z).
INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING (LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources claim the targeting of CHP-6 (TETS-6) in Kyiv; while outages are confirmed, specific kinetic impact on this facility remains unconfirmed (NGP RaZVedka, 0014Z).
SOUTHERN UAV INGRESS (MEDIUM): A new wave of OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) has been detected transiting northern Mykolaiv Oblast toward Kirovohrad (AF UAF, 0027Z).
KINETIC IMPACT IN MAKARIV (MEDIUM): An explosion/impact was recorded in the vicinity of Makariv, Kyiv Oblast (Nikolaevsky Vanyok, 0007Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: Under sustained ballistic pressure. IADS is actively engaging "repeated" high-speed targets. Grid stability has failed in multiple districts.
Zhytomyr Sector: Emerging as a secondary target axis. Intercepts are likely occurring near Korostyshiv.
Southern Corridor (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad): RF is utilizing a southern flight path for OWA-UAVs, likely to fix southern AD units and prevent them from reinforcing the northern/central sectors.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has evolved from a single saturation strike into a pulsed multi-wave assault. The lull observed at 0005Z was temporary; the RF has re-engaged using ground-launched ballistics from the Bryansk axis, which minimizes early warning time for the capital.
Battlefield Geometry: High-speed threats are arriving on a direct North-to-South vector (Bryansk-Kyiv), while subsonic UAVs are flanking from the North (Chernihiv) and South (Mykolaiv).
Environmental Factors: Sub-zero temperatures increase the severity of the reported power/water outages in Kyiv, shifting the impact from tactical infrastructure damage to a humanitarian/civilian stability crisis.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is executing a "pulse" tactic—waiting for the initial AD response to settle or reload before launching high-speed ballistic assets. The focus on Kyiv's utility grid (CHP-6) suggests an intent to induce a total blackout.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of OWA-UAVs to "lead" or "trail" ballistic strikes is being used to mask the radar signatures of faster missiles or to identify active AD radar positions (Colonelcassad, 0035Z).
Command and Control: High degree of synchronization between ground-based ballistic units in Bryansk and UAV launch sites in the South.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Postures: IADS remains in a high-intensity engagement state. Successful intercepts are noted, but the sheer volume of "repeated" targets (0005Z-0013Z) is testing magazine depth.
Tactical Successes: Continued detection and tracking of high-speed targets despite the complexity of the flight paths.
Constraints: Grid failures in the capital may impact localized C2 and communication nodes if backup power systems fail or are not engaged.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels (NGP RaZVedka) are utilizing the blackout for psychological operations, mocking the "Russian industrial inventions" (power plants) in Ukraine to undermine national morale (0014Z, 0019Z).
Disinformation: Russian state media (TASS) is pivoting toward political friction, highlighting potential "unpredictability" in Trump-Zelensky relations to create a sense of diplomatic isolation during the kinetic crisis (0029Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The ballistic pulses from Bryansk will continue for the next 2 hours, interspersed with OWA-UAV arrivals to prevent the stabilization of the Kyiv power grid.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the ongoing focus on Kyiv to launch a heavy cruise missile salvo from the Black Sea or Caspian Sea, targeting the recently identified AD "blind spot" in the South or Western GLOCs.
Timeline:
T+30 mins (0105Z): Southern UAV wave reaches Kirovohrad/Kryvyi Rih periphery.
T+90 mins (0200Z): Potential for a third ballistic pulse if Bryansk-based units are being re-supplied from nearby GRAU bases.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
CRITICAL. The situation in Kyiv is deteriorating due to the loss of essential services (power/water) amidst ongoing strikes. The next 6 hours will be defined by the UAF’s ability to sustain IADS density against ground-launched ballistics while managing the civilian impact of infrastructure failure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kyiv Grid Status (Priority 1): Confirm if the CHP-6 facility sustained a direct hit or if outages are protective/cascading.
Bryansk Launch Activity: Monitor for TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) movement in the Bryansk region to predict the third pulse.
Zhytomyr BDA: Identify the specific targets in Korostyshiv/Makariv to determine if the RF is shifting focus to C2 or logistical nodes outside the capital.
