KINETIC STRIKE (KHERSON): UAF successfully neutralized a Russian ammunition depot in temporarily occupied Radensk, Kherson Oblast (1911Z, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT ESCALATION: Air Force of the UAF confirms missile danger in Kharkiv Oblast and OWA-UAV (Shahed) penetrations into Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) and Chernihiv (Slavutych area) (1909Z, 1920Z, 1922Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
TACTICAL ADAPTATION CONFIRMED: Russian sources admit increasing reliance on horse-mounted "cavalry" units for frontline assaults; UAF 92nd Assault Brigade confirms the elimination of RU cavalry personnel in snowy terrain (1930Z, 1932Z, Оперативний ЗСУ/Два майора, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING: President Zelenskyy confirms a US proposal for 15-year security guarantees with extension options; reiterated invitation for Donald Trump to visit Ukraine (1912Z, 1932Z, Операция Z/ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM).
OPERATIONAL INTENT (DONETSK): Prominent pro-Russian analysts (Basurin) are publicly advocating for the encirclement of Sloviansk, suggesting a potential shift in RU strategic focus toward the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration (1909Z, Басурин о главном, LOW/ANALYTICAL).
HULIAIPOLE ASSAULT: RU forces have initiated a renewed map-supported assault operation on Huliaipole, targeting the remaining UAF "Skala" assault regiment positions (1921Z, 1925Z, Сливочный каприз/Воин DV, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is characterized by a widening of the aerial threat envelope and a hardening of the Russian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Battlefield Geometry: The Huliaipole breach is being actively exploited by RU forces. Concurrently, new OWA-UAV vectors are appearing in the North (Chernihiv) and East (Dnipropetrovsk), likely to saturate AD ahead of the predicted mass missile strike.
Weather: Deep snow and freezing temperatures in the Kharkiv/Donetsk sectors are driving the documented increase in horse-mounted infantry movement as mechanized platforms face mobility and thermal signature constraints.
Dispositions: UAF maintains a defensive anchor at the Oskil River (Kupyansk), while RU forces appear to be grouping for an attempt to bypass urban strongholds via encirclement (Sloviansk-focus).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capability Shift (Cavalry): The admission by RU sources (1932Z) that cavalry is increasingly used in combat indicates a systemic adaptation to the loss of light armored mobility and the high density of UAF FPV drones. This provides RU with low-thermal-signature infiltration capabilities but high vulnerability to small arms and anti-personnel munitions.
Strike Operations: RU is utilizing a multi-layered approach: localized missile threats (Kharkiv) combined with widely dispersed OWA-UAVs (Shahed) to probe for gaps in the mobile fire group coverage.
Internal Sustainability: TASS reports (1910Z) regarding the extension of medical licenses for doctors without accreditation suggest a growing domestic human resource crisis within the Russian healthcare system, likely exacerbated by frontline casualty rates.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Tactical Success: The strike on the Radensk ammunition depot (1911Z) degrades the logistics of the RU Dnepr Group of Forces, potentially relieving pressure on the Kherson riverine positions.
ISR/Targeting: The 92nd Assault Brigade continues to demonstrate high-fidelity drone surveillance and strike capability, effectively countering non-traditional RU tactical shifts (cavalry).
Strategic Posture: The UAF leadership is leveraging the "15-year security guarantee" narrative to maintain international leverage during a period of tactical volatility in the south.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Reflexive Control: RU sources (Воин DV) are using heavy sarcasm regarding the UAF "Skala" regiment to degrade morale following the Huliaipole breakthrough.
International Distraction: Amplification of Chinese hypersonic tests (DF-27A) by RU mil-bloggers (1915Z) serves to project an image of a broader anti-Western alliance and distract from localized RU tactical failures.
Gas/Energy Narratives: Rybar (1911Z) claims "Gerans" (Shaheds) have "turned off the gas," likely a reference to strikes on energy/storage infrastructure intended to induce civilian hardship during the winter.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will execute the synchronized mass missile/UAV strike between 0000Z and 0600Z (27 DEC). The current OWA-UAV activity in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk is the preparatory phase to map UAF AD repositioning.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU forces achieve a rapid breakthrough west of Huliaipole, utilizing horse-mounted units for silent night infiltration to bypass UAF blocking positions, threatening the T0518 GLOC and unhinging the Zaporizhzhia defense.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
KINETIC: Critical window for OWA-UAV/Missile arrivals. Expect high-intensity impacts targeting the 750kV grid and Odesa port infrastructure.
ZAPORIZHZHIA: Continued heavy urban and suburban fighting in Huliaipole. High probability of RU "Vostok" group attempting to consolidate the city center.
LOGISTICS: Follow-on UAF deep strikes against RU forward ammo dumps expected to capitalize on the SEAD window in Crimea.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Radensk BDA: Confirm the specific munition types destroyed (e.g., KABs vs. artillery shells) to assess immediate impact on RU fire support.
Sloviansk Vectors: Monitor for RU unit rotations toward the Lyman/Siversk axes that would corroborate Basurin's "encirclement" rhetoric.
Cavalry Logistics: Identify RU cavalry staging points; these likely represent high-value, low-defended targets for FPV/cluster munition strikes.
