STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY: President Zelenskyy has publicly suggested that Donald Trump should visit Ukraine to personally present his arguments for a peace framework (1900Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
CRIMEAN KINETIC ACTIVITY: The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) Special Unit "Prymary" conducted a targeted holiday-timed operation/strike against Russian assets in occupied Crimea (1900Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM).
HULIAIPOLE ISR DENSITY: Russian MoD confirms the deployment of Orlan-10 UAV teams for high-resolution reconnaissance and real-time artillery coordination against UAF strongholds and supply lines (1903Z, MoD Russia, HIGH).
KUPYANSK INTENSITY: Pro-Russian sources report a high-attrition engagement in Kupyansk, claiming the RF 68th Division is actively engaging UAF infantry attempting to hold urban positions (1838Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM).
TACTICAL ANOMALY: Aerial footage from the UAF 92nd Assault Brigade confirms Russian personnel utilizing horse-mounted assaults on Ukrainian positions, likely an adaptation to mechanized shortages or localized terrain requirements (1840Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
POKROVSK CIVILIAN DISPUTE: Conflicting reports regarding the "Lazurnyi" district; RF sources show civilian "evacuations" from a church while UAF sources document alleged war crimes against residents (1844Z-1847Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО/Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment has shifted toward a high-intensity ISR-strike cycle.
Battlefield Geometry: The Huliaipole sector is transitioning from an urban breakthrough to a consolidation phase, with RF forces utilizing "Orlan-10" UAVs to map UAF secondary defensive belts. In Kupyansk, the situation remains fluid with high-attrition infantry combat reported near the Oskil River.
Weather: Continued snowfall and freezing temperatures are likely driving the observed Russian tactical shift toward horse-mounted infantry and increased UAV-led artillery spotting to compensate for reduced mechanized mobility.
Logistics: UAF strikes on Donetsk logistical nodes (confirmed in previous sitrep and echoed at 1836Z) appear to be part of a coordinated effort to disrupt the "Vostok" group's exploitation of the Huliaipole breach.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: The use of horses for assaults (1840Z) suggests a critical shortage of light armored vehicles (AFVs/APCs) or a specific attempt to utilize silent, low-thermal-signature transport for infiltration in the Kharkiv/Donetsk sectors.
ISR-Strike Integration: RF MoD is emphasizing a "sensor-to-shooter" loop in Huliaipole (1903Z). The focus on "supply elements" indicates an intent to isolate the urban core from UAF reinforcements.
Kupyansk Offensive: The involvement of the 68th Division indicates a sustained Russian effort to collapse the Oskil River line before the year-end diplomatic summit.
Internal Security: RF internal discourse is focusing on "ideological purification," with state-aligned media attacking educational systems for "pagan" or "pro-Ukrainian" sentiments (1838Z-1847Z, Kotsnews), signaling a crackdown on internal dissent.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Strategic Maneuvering: Zelenskyy’s invitation to Trump (1900Z) is a sophisticated signaling move intended to force a concrete policy definition from the incoming US administration while reinforcing Ukraine’s agency in the peace process.
Special Operations: The GUR "Prymary" unit's activity in Crimea (1900Z) maintains psychological pressure on RF rear-area security and likely exploits the AD gaps created by the destruction of S-300V assets earlier today.
Defensive Posture: The 92nd Brigade remains combat-effective in the northern sector, providing high-quality ISR (horse-mounted assault footage) that assists in identifying RF tactical degradation.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Propaganda: RF channels are heavily promoting "humanitarian" imagery in Pokrovsk (church evacuations) to counter burgeoning reports of war crimes in the same district.
Western Sentiment: Russian mil-bloggers (Alex Parker) are amplifying Western corporate shifts (e.g., Air France holiday branding) to portray a "clash of civilizations" narrative and Western cultural decline (1854Z).
UAF Morale: Footage of successful drone strikes (1855Z, STERNENKO) and tallies of destroyed RF personnel (1858Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) are being used to maintain domestic morale amid the Huliaipole crisis.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to use the Orlan-10/artillery combination to systematically reduce UAF blocking positions west of Huliaipole. A mass missile/UAV strike remains the primary threat for the 0000Z-0600Z window (27 DEC) based on previously identified 260th GRAU base activity.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces in Kupyansk achieve a breakthrough to the Oskil River crossing points, coupled with a collapse of the Southern Front's western shoulder, forcing a strategic UAF withdrawal across multiple oblasts simultaneously.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
KINETIC: High probability of a multi-vector OWA-UAV/missile strike targeting the energy grid and Odesa logistics. Persistent infantry combat in Kupyansk and Pokrovsk (Lazurnyi).
AERIAL: Continued SEAD/strike operations in Crimea by GUR/UAF to widen existing AD gaps.
DIPLOMATIC: Expect further "leaks" regarding the 15-year security guarantee as the Saturday summit approaches.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Crimea BDA: Identify the specific targets of the GUR "Prymary" strike (1900Z) to assess impact on RF Black Sea Fleet or AD infrastructure.
Kupyansk FEBA: Determine if the 68th Division has secured permanent footholds within the city center or if UAF counter-attacks have stabilized the river line.
RF Logistics (Horse-Mounted Units): Assess if the use of horses is widespread or localized to specific units (e.g., 92nd Bde AO), which would indicate broader mechanized attrition.
