UAF STRIKES ON DONETSK LOGISTICS: General Staff of the UAF confirms successful kinetic strikes against Russian logistical nodes and "Spetsnaz" concentrations in occupied Donetsk (Genshtab ZSU, 1832Z, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE URBAN CENTER CONTESTED: Russian sources claim control over the Huliaipole city center; this follows reports of UAF counter-clearing ops, indicating a high-intensity meeting engagement for the urban core (Colonelcassad, 1833Z, MEDIUM).
PROPOSED US SECURITY GUARANTEES: President Zelenskyy reports a US proposal for 15-year security guarantees for Ukraine, with options for extension (RBK-Ukraine, 1816Z, MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC SUMMIT TIMING: Coordination between Zelenskyy, Trump, and EU leaders is now confirmed for Saturday, with a follow-on bilateral focus on Sunday regarding a peace framework (RBK-Ukraine, Operatsiya Z, 1807Z-1826Z, HIGH).
FAR EAST EXPLOSIONS: Unconfirmed reports of explosions near a Russian military unit (MU 19288) in Ussuriysk, Primorsky Krai; possibly related to sabotage or internal industrial failure (ASTRA, 1830Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
RF INTERNAL PURGE: Former MFA official Arseny Konovalov sentenced to 12 years for high treason (espionage for US), signaling continued FSB focus on internal "cleansing" (Basurin, 1808Z, HIGH).
SUMY AERIAL THREAT: Ukrainian Air Force reports OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) transiting Sumy Oblast toward Putyvl (UAF Air Force, 1819Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is currently dominated by two parallel tracks: a critical urban battle in Huliaipole and an accelerated diplomatic timeline ahead of a Saturday high-level summit.
Battlefield Geometry: The Huliaipole sector remains fluid. While Russian propaganda suggests "liberation," the presence of the UAF 425th Regiment (from the previous report) confirms the city is an active combat zone.
Weather: No change from 1805Z; snowfall continues to inhibit heavy mechanized transit, forcing a reliance on infantry-led urban clearing and drone-directed fires.
Logistics: The Ukrainian Cabinet has released additional defense funding (1814Z), likely to address the emergency requirements of the Zaporizhzhia defensive operation.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Objectives: RF forces are prioritizing the consolidation of Huliaipole's center to secure a propaganda victory before the Saturday summit. The "Vostok" group appears to be utilizing localized "Spetsnaz" units for urban infiltration, though these units were reportedly targeted by UAF strikes in the Donetsk sector (1832Z).
Technological Shift: The Russian Security Council is formally elevating Artificial Intelligence (AI) for defense purposes (MoD Russia, 1813Z), indicating a long-term shift toward autonomous systems to offset personnel attrition.
Internal Security: The 12-year sentence for Arseny Konovalov (1809Z) serves as a deterrent to the RF diplomatic corps, reinforcing the Kremlin’s "fortress" mentality during sensitive negotiations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Operational Posture: UAF is maintaining a "flexible defense" in the south while utilizing high-precision fires to degrade the enemy's rear in Donetsk. The strike on RF logistics and Spetsnaz (1832Z) suggests UAF has maintained deep-strike capabilities despite the pressure on the Huliaipole frontline.
Strategic Alignment: The reported 15-year US security guarantee (1816Z) provides a potential framework for the "security-first" stance Zelenskyy intends to present during the weekend talks with Trump and EU leaders.
Air Defense: Active monitoring of the Sumy vector (1819Z) is critical as RF OWA-UAVs attempt to probe for gaps in the northern AD screen.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Narrative: RF mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad, Rybar) are flooding the space with "victory" imagery in Huliaipole to project momentum. Simultaneously, nationalist channels (Alex Parker) are criticizing internal policies like Islamic banking (1807Z) to stir domestic dissent.
Ukrainian Narrative: Focus remains on the human cost of the war (Oleksandriia memorial, 1813Z) and official government transparency regarding defense funding and high-level diplomacy.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the tactical initiative in Huliaipole through the night to ensure they hold the city center before the 12/27 summit. A multi-vector drone/missile strike (previously predicted) is likely to initiate between 0000Z and 0400Z to maximize psychological pressure.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF "Spetsnaz" or VDV units achieve a clean breakthrough west of Huliaipole, cutting the T0518 highway and isolating UAF tactical groups before reserves can be fully integrated with the new funding/materiel.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
KINETIC: Persistent urban combat in Huliaipole. High probability of localized UAF counter-attacks in the Donetsk sector to relieve pressure on the Zaporizhzhia front.
AERIAL: Increased OWA-UAV activity over Sumy and Kharkiv; high alert for cruise missile launches from the Black Sea/Caspian vector.
DIPLOMATIC: Pre-summit signaling will intensify, with both sides leaking "red line" conditions to influence the Trump-Zelenskyy-EU agenda.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole FEBA: Confirm if RF holds the western administrative boundaries of Huliaipole or if UAF has established a block at the T0518 junction.
Ussuriysk BDA: Verify the nature of the "explosions" in Primorsky Krai. If confirmed as a GUR/sabotage operation, it indicates a significant reach into RF deep-rear logistics.
Spetsnaz Attrition: Identify the specific units targeted in the 1832Z Donetsk strike to assess the degradation of RF's elite urban assault capabilities.
