HULIAIPOLE COUNTER-CLEARING OPS: The UAF 425th "Skelya" Regiment reports ongoing operations to clear Russian forces from Huliaipole, suggesting the sector is contested rather than fully lost (Tsaplienko, 1759Z, MEDIUM).
ZELENSKYY REFERENDUM PROPOSAL: Reports indicate President Zelenskyy is prepared to put a proposed peace plan to a national referendum, contingent upon a 60-day ceasefire by the Russian Federation (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, STERNENKO, 1749Z-1801Z, MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY: A high-level online summit between President Zelenskyy, US President-elect Trump, and European leaders is reportedly scheduled for Saturday (Operativno ZSU, 1738Z, HIGH).
DRUZHKIVKA ENGAGEMENT: Pro-Russian sources claim a successful strike on UAF tank units near Druzhkivka; visual evidence remains limited to Russian MoD-affiliated channels (Colonelcassad, 1735Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
AERIAL DEFENSE INNOVATION: UAF has highlighted the "P1SUN" aerial interceptor drone system, claiming high efficacy in downing Shahed-type OWA-UAVs (Tsaplienko, 1800Z, HIGH).
RF INTERNAL REPRESSION: Russian security services (FSB/MVD) have intensified domestic crackdowns, including a 17-year sentence for "treason" in Ryazan and raids on religious groups in St. Petersburg (ASTRA, Dva Mayora, 1736Z-1741Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The battlefield geometry in the Zaporizhzhia Sector has transitioned from a localized RF breakthrough to a high-intensity meeting engagement. While RF forces previously claimed nearly total control of Huliaipole, active UAF clearing operations indicate the city remains a "gray zone" of active combat.
Weather: Continued snowfall is likely slowing mechanized movement, favoring the use of small-unit infantry tactics and drones in urban environments like Huliaipole.
Key Terrain: Control of Huliaipole remains the pivot point for the Southern Front. Druzhkivka (Donetsk) is emerging as a target for RF long-range fires and tactical aviation.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: RF forces are employing paratrooper (VDV) units in the Zaporizhzhia direction (Primorske) using FPV drones to target UAF personnel, indicating a shift toward drone-integrated assault tactics (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1804Z).
Logistics & Sustainment: Pro-Russian "mil-bloggers" continue to rely on grassroots fundraising for critical technology like drones, suggesting persistent gaps in official MoD procurement (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 1748Z).
Rear Area Security: The FSB is prioritizing the neutralization of alleged GUR-linked sabotage networks in occupied Luhansk (LNR), likely in anticipation of UAF winter disruption operations (Colonelcassad, 1803Z).
Course of Action: RF will likely maintain high pressure in Huliaipole and Pokrovsk to maximize territorial gains before the reported Saturday diplomatic summit, attempting to present a fait accompli to the incoming US administration.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Operational Posture: UAF is transitioning from a defensive retrograde to localized counter-attacks. The deployment of the 425th "Skelya" Regiment to Huliaipole suggests the Ukrainian command is committing specialized assault assets to prevent a total collapse of the sector.
Technology Integration: The rollout of the P1SUN interceptor drone (1800Z) addresses the requirement for cost-effective attrition of RF OWA-UAVs, potentially preserving high-end AD interceptors for the expected mass missile strike.
Diplomatic Strategy: Ukrainian leadership is signaling flexibility (referendum/60-day ceasefire) to align with emerging US political realities while maintaining a "security-first" stance.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Narrative: RF sources are heavily promoting domestic "stability" through publicized police raids on counterfeiters and "radicals" while using graphic footage of civilian suffering to demoralize the Ukrainian domestic audience (Colonelcassad, Butusov Plus, 1734Z-1747Z).
Strategic Signaling: The Axios report regarding the referendum is being amplified across both Ukrainian and Russian channels, indicating its role as a primary piece of psychological-political maneuvering ahead of weekend talks.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify "clearing operations" in Huliaipole and launch heavy strikes on Druzhkivka to disrupt UAF logistics. Concurrently, the expected mass missile strike (noted in previous reports) remains highly likely within the next 12 hours to degrade Ukrainian morale before the Saturday summit.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF achieves a breakout from Huliaipole toward the T0518 highway while UAF counter-attacks are fixed by heavy snowfall and RF VDV drone strikes, leading to an operational-level encirclement of units in the eastern Zaporizhzhia salient.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
KINETIC: High-intensity urban combat in Huliaipole. UAF will attempt to re-establish the FEBA on the city's eastern fringes.
STRATEGIC: High alert for a multi-vector missile and OWA-UAV attack launched from Belarus and the Black Sea.
DIPLOMATIC: Intensive preparatory work for the Zelenskyy-Trump-EU summit on Saturday.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Huliaipole Control: Clarify the percentage of Huliaipole under UAF control following the 425th Regiment's counter-op.
(P2) Druzhkivka Battle Damage Assessment (BDA): Confirm the status of UAF armor in the Druzhkivka area following RF strike claims.
(P3) RF Reserve Movements: Identify if additional RF VDV or mechanized units are moving from the Primorske axis toward Huliaipole to reinforce the breakthrough attempt.
