HULIAIPOLE NEAR-TOTAL LOSS: Pro-Russian sources claim >90% of Huliaipole is under RF control, with "clearing operations" moving to the western outskirts (1715Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
BELARUSIAN "HUMAN SHIELD" DEPLOYMENT: President Zelenskyy confirmed RF strike equipment is being positioned on the roofs of residential buildings in Belarus to complicate UAF/International counter-strikes (1719Z, 1723Z, RBK-Ukraine/Tsaplienko, HIGH).
POKROVSK/MYRNOHRAD ENCIRCLEMENT CLAIM: RF "Tsentr" Group claims to be storming an "encircled" Myrnohrad and advancing into the eastern fringes of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (1731Z, RVvoenkor, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
STRATEGIC FUNDING BOOST: The Ukrainian government allocated an additional 3.1 billion UAH to the Ministry of Defense for immediate operational requirements (1728Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC ALIGNMENT: President Zelenskyy coordinated defense positions with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, focusing on European security architecture (1723Z, Zelenskiy, HIGH).
WEATHER-INDUCED LOGISTICAL FRICTION: Local authorities in Kryvyi Rih (Vilkul) issued emergency calls for road clearance and vehicle restrictions, confirming heavy snowfall is impacting GLOCs in the southern theater (1711Z, Vilkul, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment has significantly deteriorated in the Huliaipole sector, with the city center likely lost and the FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area) shifting to the western urban periphery. In the Pokrovsk sector, RF forces are attempting a high-tempo envelopment of Myrnohrad.
Weather: Severe winter conditions (snow) are impacting both mechanized movement and civilian logistics in the Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia directions. This favors stationary drone-based defense but complicates the movement of tactical reserves.
Key Terrain: RF control of Huliaipole provides a springboard for operations toward the T0518 highway. RF claims of entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggest a widening of the offensive front.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: RF is utilizing Belarusian civilian infrastructure (roof-top deployments) as a passive defense measure for its strike assets, likely including OWA-UAV launchers or EW suites, to deter UAF kinetic response (1719Z).
C2 Resilience: The "Dnepr" Group (Kherson) is conducting "combat drills" for communication specialists of the 49th Combined Arms Army, suggesting a focus on hardening C2 nodes against UAF electronic warfare and drone strikes (1705Z, MoD Russia).
Course of Action: RF is prioritizing the "Tsentr" Group's push to isolate Myrnohrad. The claim of "encirclement" (1731Z) may be premature but indicates an intent to bypass strongpoints and force a Ukrainian withdrawal from the Pokrovsk salient.
Urban Warfare: RF 9th Brigade is reportedly "clearing" Rodinske (1732Z, WarGonzo), indicating a multi-pronged expansion of the Pokrovsk offensive.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Drone Strategy: Following the Stavka meeting (1712Z), the UAF is formalizing the "Drone-First" defense. Successful drone engagements by the 92nd Assault Brigade (1714Z) and "Cursed Empire" unit in the Kostyantynivka direction (1709Z) demonstrate continued tactical efficacy despite losing ground in Huliaipole.
Logistics: The 3.1 billion UAH injection (1728Z) is likely targeted at emergency procurement of FPV drones and cold-weather sustainment.
Posture: UAF appears to be conducting a fighting withdrawal in Huliaipole to established secondary lines west of the city, attempting to trade space for time and enemy attrition.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Hybrid Threats: Pro-Russian channels are using sarcastic narratives regarding Finland (1726Z, Kotsnews) and promoting domestic instability narratives concerning potential Ukrainian elections during martial law (1734Z).
Internal Russian Repression: Russian security forces raided a spiritual group in St. Petersburg for "praying for Ukraine" (1711Z, ASTRA), indicating continued high sensitivity to internal dissent.
Morale Operations: RF sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) are maintaining a high volume of "heroic" imagery to counter news of logistical strain and the use of archaic transport (horses).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify the assault on Myrnohrad to achieve a "city-drop" narrative before the new year, while simultaneously leveraging the Belarus-based launchers for a multi-vector strike on the Ukrainian energy grid tonight (matching SAR indicators from previous reports).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF "Tsentr" Group achieves a clean breakthrough into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, bypassing Myrnohrad's defenses and threatening the wider logistical hub of Pavlohrad, while a coordinated strike from Belarus suppresses Northern AD.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
CRITICAL: High probability of a mass missile/drone strike launched from multiple vectors, including Belarus and the Black Sea.
TACTICAL: Continued heavy urban fighting in western Huliaipole and the outskirts of Myrnohrad/Rodinske.
ENVIRONMENTAL: Snow will continue to degrade visibility for ISR and slow the movement of reinforcements.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Myrnohrad Status: Urgently confirm if RF forces have achieved physical or fire control over the main GLOCs into Myrnohrad (UNCONFIRMED claim of encirclement).
(P2) Belarus Deployment: Identify specific residential coordinates in Belarus being used for RF equipment to update "No-Strike" lists and inform diplomatic pressure.
(P3) Huliaipole FEBA: Map the new defensive line established by the 106th Brigade and supporting units west of Huliaipole.
