STAVKA COMMAND SESSION: President Zelenskyy convened a Supreme HQ (Stavka) meeting focused exclusively on multi-domain drone operations, including "Line of Drones" development and deep-strike capabilities (1700Z, Zelenskiy, HIGH).
PRECISION DEEP STRIKES: UAF Special Operations/Cyber Boroshno units confirmed strikes on a GRU deployment point, ammunition warehouses, and a radar station in Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT) using FP-2 "Deep Strike" drones (1639Z, 1650Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE COMMAND DISRUPTION: Pro-Russian sources claim the 106th Brigade HQ was abandoned due to "panic" triggered by a small RU infiltration team; while the KSP loss is confirmed from previous reports, the "panic" narrative remains UNCONFIRMED and likely psychological warfare (1700Z, RVvoenkor, LOW).
TACTICAL COUNTER-ASSAULT: UAF 92nd Assault Brigade successfully repelled Russian "Storm" units attempting mounted cavalry maneuvers, confirming the continued RF reliance on asymmetric/archaic transport (1659Z, GS UAF, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC COORDINATION: Ukraine finalized high-level discussions with the Netherlands and Estonia regarding security guarantees and military aid (1642Z, 1651Z, Zelenskiy, HIGH).
FRONT-LINE MORALE: Video evidence confirms the deployment of the RF 33rd Guards Berlin Don Cossack Regiment in the Zaporizhzhia sector (1635Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The battlefield geometry is currently defined by a widening breach in the Huliaipole sector and a highly active Ukrainian deep-strike campaign targeting Russian C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) assets in the rear.
Weather: Snowy, forested conditions reported on the Zaporizhzhia front (1649Z), likely contributing to the RF’s continued use of horses to navigate terrain where motorized units are bogged down or targeted by FPV drones.
Key Terrain: The Huliaipole urban center remains the primary point of friction; Russian forces are attempting to consolidate gains while Ukrainian reserves seek to prevent a breakout toward the T0518 lateral GLOC.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Shifts: RF forces are increasingly utilizing "infiltration-heavy" tactics. The claim that a 3-man team caused the abandonment of a Brigade KSP (1700Z) suggests RF is testing Ukrainian command resilience through small-unit disruption rather than massive mechanized pushes.
Logistics & Sustainment: Reliance on horse-mounted infantry (92nd Bde report) and civilian-funded vehicle columns (Colonelcassad, 1700Z) indicates significant strain on standard military logistics for the "Vostok" and "Center" groupings.
Capabilities: RF continues to project power through long-range aviation (Su-35S deliveries) and military ISR satellite launches (Soyuz-2.1a) to compensate for ground-level visibility gaps.
Course of Action: RF is likely prioritizing the encirclement of Myrnohrad while using the Huliaipole breach to draw Ukrainian reserves away from the Donbas.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: UAF is transitioning to a "Drone-First" defensive posture, as evidenced by the 1700Z Stavka meeting. The focus is on "Line of Drones" for frontline denial and "Deep Strikes" for strategic attrition.
Successes: Successful SEAD/Strike window in Crimea/TOT remains open. The destruction of GRU deployment points and radar assets (1639Z) degrades RF local intelligence and early warning capabilities.
Constraints: The reported loss of the 106th Bde KSP and potential SIGINT compromise requires immediate defensive repositioning and COMSEC overhaul.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Narratives: RF MFA is attempting to create a "peace plan" divergence, claiming Ukraine's new 20-point plan differs from US-RU talks (1637Z). This is a clear attempt to isolate Ukrainian leadership from its primary backers.
Internal Russian Dissent: Military bloggers (Alex Parker) are increasingly vocal about Putin being misled by "red folders" (inaccurate General Staff reports), indicating a growing rift between the Kremlin and the ultra-nationalist mil-blogger community.
Psychological Operations: RU sources are aggressively promoting the "panic in Huliaipole" narrative to induce cascading failures in adjacent Ukrainian units.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue localized "grey zone" infiltrations in the Zaporizhzhia sector to exploit the 106th Bde's displacement while maintaining the pressure on Myrnohrad.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Leveraging the potential SIGINT compromise from the Huliaipole KSP, RF forces launch a night mechanized assault on the secondary defensive line toward Orikhiv, supported by a mass missile strike on regional energy hubs to mask troop movements.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued UAF deep strikes on RF logistics in TOT (Crimea/Donetsk) following Stavka directives.
Expected increase in RF psychological operations regarding "collapsing" Ukrainian fronts.
Weather conditions (snow/mud) will favor asymmetric UAF drone defense over RF mechanized movement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Huliaipole Integrity: Confirm the current FEBA west of Huliaipole. Is the 106th Bde conducting a Fighting Withdrawal or a Disorganized Retrograde?
(P2) Deep Strike BDA: Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) required for the reported strike on the GRU deployment point (1639Z) to assess impact on local RF C2.
(P3) Technology Deployment: Verify DeepState claims regarding Bell Textron (AH-1Z/UH-1Y) integration into UAF operations (1700Z).
