STRATEGIC MOBILIZATION DATA: HUR Chief Budanov confirms RF mobilization target for 2025 was 403,000, with a projected 2026 target of 409,000, signaling sustained high-intensity force generation (1608Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING: RF Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov claims a "resolution to the conflict has truly approached," while simultaneously issuing nuclear threats to the US to force negotiations on Russian terms (1610Z, 1618Z, 1626Z, TASS/ASTRA, HIGH).
ASYMMETRIC TACTICS: UAF 92nd Assault Brigade reports RF forces utilizing mounted cavalry for maneuvers near Verbove (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border), likely to mitigate mud/logistical constraints (1617Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
POKROVSK ESCALATION: Pro-Russian sources claim RF "Center" group is assaulting an "encircled" Myrnohrad and has begun operations within the Dnipropetrovsk regional administrative boundary (1631Z, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM).
UNCONFIRMED REAR AREA SABOTAGE: Reports indicate a car bombing in Moscow targeting and killing a General Staff officer and two police officers; if verified, suggests successful deep-cover partisan activity (1621Z, Alex Parker, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
AERIAL MODERNIZATION: RF MoD claims record 2025 production for the United Aircraft Corporation (OAK), specifically noting the delivery of a new batch of Su-35S fighters (1613Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The situation remains critical. Following the Huliaipole breach, RF is expanding its axis of advance toward Verbove (Dnipropetrovsk border) and Prymorske. The use of horses by RF forces indicates a tactical adaptation to traverse difficult terrain where motorized transport is vulnerable to FPV drones.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad): RF forces are intensifying the "Stepnogorsk/Myrnohrad" pincer. Claims of Myrnohrad’s encirclement are currently assessed as premature but indicative of a deteriorating tactical pocket. UAF National Guard unit "Spartan" is active in the sector, utilizing 24/7 drone surveillance to interdict RF motorized and "scooter-borne" infantry.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk): UAF "Khartia" units continue to document the presence of African mercenaries in RF "Storm" units, suggesting RF is increasingly relying on foreign manpower to fulfill its mobilization quotas.
Rear Areas: High-altitude ISR and OWA-UAV threats persist, particularly with the confirmed use of Belarusian airspace for flanking maneuvers toward Western Ukraine.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: RF is diversifying infiltration methods (cavalry, scooters, UGVs) to saturate UAF ISR-strike loops. The use of cavalry near Verbove suggests an attempt to achieve stealthy movement in the "grey zone."
Manpower: The 409k mobilization projection for 2026 confirms the "War of Attrition" remains the RF’s primary strategic course of action.
Industrial Output: The delivery of Su-35S units indicates the RF defense industrial base (DIB) maintains the capacity to replace high-end airframes despite sanctions, though "record production" claims likely contain propaganda inflation.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Attrition: UAF drone units (Spartan, Khartia, 92nd Bde) remain the primary counter to RF localized breakthroughs, maintaining high casualty rates among RF specialized infantry.
Diplomatic Sustainability: President Zelenskyy conducted high-level talks with Canadian officials (Mark Carney) to secure long-term financial and security guarantees, countering the RF's "forced negotiation" narrative.
Internal Morale/Accountability: Internal military critiques (e.g., Marcus Melnyk) regarding command accountability indicate ongoing friction within the UAF leadership structure but also reflect a transparent democratic process absent in RF forces.
Information environment / disinformation
"Approaching Peace" Narrative: Ryabkov’s statements are assessed as a coordinated influence operation designed to induce Western "negotiation fatigue" and stall further aid packages by suggesting a diplomatic end is imminent.
Nuclear Blackmail: Revived nuclear signaling targeting the US (1626Z) is a standard RF escalation-to-de-escalate tactic intended to decouple Western support from Ukrainian tactical needs.
Internal Unrest: The arrest of 70 civilians in St. Petersburg for "pro-ZSU prayers" highlights deep-seated internal paranoia within the RF security apparatus regarding domestic dissent.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued RF pressure on the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk axis, attempting to verify and exploit the claimed "encirclement."
MDCOA: A massive missile strike on the energy grid (previously signaled by 260th GRAU activity) timed for the 26/27 DEC overnight period to maximize civilian hardship and logistical paralysis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Myrnohrad Status: Immediate IMINT/SIGINT required to confirm or refute RF claims of encirclement.
(P2) Dnipropetrovsk Breach: Verification of RF boots-on-the-ground within the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. Is this a localized raid or a sustainable frontline shift?
(P3) Moscow Assassination: Corroboration of the reported General Staff officer death to assess the viability of rear-area partisan networks.
