CRIMEA PRECISION STRIKE: HUR drone units successfully neutralized several high-value RF air defense assets in occupied Crimea, including an S-300V launcher, "Redut-221" C2 vehicle, and two radar stations (one from a Buk-M3 system) (1439Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE DETERIORATION: Combat has expanded beyond the city center to the western and southern sectors; official confirmation received that the 106th Bde 1st Bn Command Post (KSP) was compromised, though some personnel successfully egressed (1439Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО; 1457Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
KHARKIV CASUALTY ESCALATION: Confirmed fatalities have risen to two, with at least five civilians wounded following KAB strikes on transport infrastructure (1436Z, 1454Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
ENERGY SECTOR STRESS: Ukrenergo has announced nationwide rolling blackouts for tomorrow, Dec 27, indicating critical grid instability following recent strikes (1455Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
RF TACTICAL REINFORCEMENT: Visual confirmation of new modular armor kits being integrated into RF frontline vehicles, likely to counter UAF FPV and drone-drop dominance (1450Z, Два майора, HIGH).
INTERNAL SECURITY OPS: Ukrainian law enforcement dismantled a criminal network operating fake "rehabilitation centers" in Dnipropetrovsk used for kidnapping and extortion (1442Z, Офіс Генерального прокурора, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Huliaipole/Zaporizhzhia): The situation is critical. RF forces are leveraging their penetration of the city center to conduct multi-pronged assaults toward the western and southern outskirts. The presence of KAB launches (1456Z) targeting this specific axis suggests a combined arms push to seize the remaining urban footprint before 0000Z.
Crimean Theater (Strategic Rear): UAF (HUR) has effectively degraded RF air defense (AD) density in the peninsula. The destruction of the S-300V and Buk-M3 radar components creates a "blind spot" in the RF integrated air defense system (IADS), potentially facilitating future Storm Shadow/SCALP or ATACMS strikes.
Kharkiv Sector: RF continues a localized terror bombing campaign using KABs. While not currently tied to a ground offensive, the persistent targeting of highways and civilian nodes is successfully creating logistical friction within the city.
Western Ukraine (Rear): RF drone activity persists, with one Shahed-type UAV intercepted over Khmelnytskyi (1451Z). This maintains high alert status for rear-area AD units.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation: VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) are operating with high intensity, launching KABs toward both Kharkiv and eastern Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia. This indicates a high degree of coordination between ground assault tempo and tactical air support.
Adaptation: The deployment of "private" or "volunteer-funded" modular armor kits suggests RF units are bypassing traditional (slower) procurement chains to address the immediate threat of UAF drone strikes.
Internal Security (RF): Increased "counter-sectarian" raids in St. Petersburg targeting pro-Ukrainian sentiment indicate a hardening of the RF domestic environment against perceived internal dissent or subversion.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Special Operations: HUR continues to demonstrate superior ISR and strike reach in Crimea, prioritizing the degradation of the RF AD umbrella.
Defensive Posture: UAF Spokesperson Voloshyn confirms a fluid defense in Huliaipole. While the loss of the 106th Bde KSP is a tactical setback, the successful extraction of key personnel suggests C2 continuity is being prioritized over static defense.
Grid Management: Ukrenergo's proactive scheduling of blackouts suggests an effort to prevent total grid collapse through controlled load shedding.
Information environment / disinformation
Election Narrative: RF-linked channels (Operation Z, Basurin) have launched a synchronized campaign alleging that Ukraine is preparing "hybrid/online elections" to maintain legitimacy (1441Z, 1442Z). This is a clear disinformation effort aimed at framing the Ukrainian government as desperate and foreign-controlled.
Target Audience: This narrative specifically targets Western skeptics and domestic Ukrainian audiences to erode trust in democratic processes during martial law.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will maintain high-intensity KAB strikes on Huliaipole to prevent UAF from establishing a new defensive line in the western outskirts. Urban combat will continue through the night.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF exploits the AD gap created by the Soyuz-2.1a ISR satellite (reported earlier) and the newly identified "blind spots" in Crimea/Southern UA to launch a precision missile strike against UAF command nodes in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) 106th Bde Status: Determine the remaining combat effectiveness of the 106th Bde after the loss of their KSP. Can they hold the western outskirts of Huliaipole, or is a full withdrawal to the next terrain feature required?
(P2) Crimean AD Gap: Assess the exact geographic coverage lost by the destruction of the Buk-M3 and S-300V assets to identify windows for long-range missile strikes.
(P3) Modular Armor Efficacy: Collect imagery or ELINT on the effectiveness of the new RF modular armor kits against standard UAF FPV munitions.
