URBAN COMBAT IN HULIAIPOLE: RF forces have penetrated the city center and are advancing toward the western and southern sectors of Huliaipole (РБК-Україна, 1420Z, HIGH).
KHARKIV GLOC INTERDICTION: A Russian KAB strike targeted one of Kharkiv’s busiest highways, causing vehicle fires and civilian casualties, including a 9-month-old infant (Олег Синєгубов, 1417Z/1431Z; РБК-Україна, 1410Z, HIGH).
RF MILITARY SPACE RECONSTITUTION: RF successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1a rocket from Plesetsk, placing a military satellite into orbit to support tactical ISR (Colonelcassad, 1433Z, HIGH).
INTERNAL SECURITY PURGE: Pechersk District Court ordered 60-day detention for the former head of the Kharkiv SBU, signaling an ongoing counter-intelligence sweep (Офіс Генерального прокурора, 1428Z, HIGH).
DOMESTIC DEFENSE PRODUCTION: Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy reports that over 50% of UAF weaponry is now domestically produced (РБК-Україна, 1434Z, MEDIUM).
POKROVSK TACTICAL SUCCESS: The 210th Separate Assault Regiment confirmed the destruction of RF infantry via FPV drone strikes in the Pokrovsk sector (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1432Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Huliaipole/Zaporizhzhia): The tactical situation has transitioned from a defensive breach to high-intensity urban warfare. RF forces are attempting to clear the city center and push into western outskirts. This follows the previously reported loss of the 106th Bde KSP, indicating a failure to stabilize the second line of defense.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): UAF continues to leverage small-unit tactical excellence. The 210th Separate Assault Regiment remains active, focusing on individual targeting to stall infantry-led "creeping" advances.
Kharkiv Sector: RF has shifted KAB targeting from general urban areas to specific transport infrastructure (highways). This suggests an intent to disrupt internal logistics and civil movement within the city, likely to create panic and complicate UAF troop rotations.
Strategic Rear (RF): Successful military satellite launch indicates RF is addressing the ISR gaps identified in previous reports regarding reliance on Chinese commercial data.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Precision Strikes: The use of KABs against high-traffic civilian highways in Kharkiv indicates a refined targeting set aimed at logistical paralysis.
Space & ISR: The successful orbital injection of a military satellite (Soyuz-2.1a) provides the RF with renewed organic surveillance capabilities, potentially improving their targeting cycle for long-range strikes.
Hybrid/Information Ops: RF channels continue to weaponize the "Mindich" corruption scandal to erode domestic trust in the UAF procurement system. This is synchronized with official Putin statements regarding the State Armament Program to contrast RF "stability" with Ukrainian "corruption."
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Generation: The 210th Separate Assault Regiment is actively recruiting, utilizing combat footage for "proof of efficacy" in the Pokrovsk sector.
Strategic Autonomy: The claim of 50% domestic weapon production indicates a significant pivot toward sustainable attrition warfare, reducing vulnerability to Western political fluctuations.
Counter-Intelligence: The detention of high-ranking former SBU officials suggests a proactive effort to harden the C2 structure against internal compromise, particularly in the vulnerable Kharkiv sector.
Information environment / disinformation
Corruption Framing: Pro-RF sources (Operation Z) are heavily amplifying the "Mindich/Zelensky's Wallet" narrative to coincide with peace plan discussions, aiming to delegitimize the Ukrainian government's negotiating position.
Festive Normalization: Kadyrov’s promotion of New Year festivities in Grozny serves as domestic "stability" propaganda, contrasting the "Special Military Operation" with "peaceful" life in the republics.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify urban clearing operations in Huliaipole to secure the city center before nightfall. A second wave of KAB strikes on Kharkiv’s logistical nodes is expected to maintain pressure on civil infrastructure.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Leveraging newly deployed ISR from the Soyuz launch and the Belarusian air bypass, RF launches a multi-vector missile/UAV strike targeting the power grid in Western Ukraine to capitalize on the Volyn breach reported earlier today.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Huliaipole FEBA: Urgent need to define the Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) within Huliaipole. Are UAF units conducting a fighting withdrawal or is there a pocket of resistance in the southern sector?
(P2) Satellite Mission Profile: Determine if the newly launched Soyuz-2.1a payload is an optical/SIGINT platform or a communications relay.
(P3) Internal Compromise: Assessment of the impact of the former Kharkiv SBU head's detention on current regional defense plans. Was tactical data leaked to the RF prior to his arrest?
