HULIAIPOLE STATUS AMBIGUITY: Pro-Russian sources claim the "complete liberation" of Huliaipole with flags allegedly raised across all districts (1157Z, Операция Z; 1201Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM). However, internal RF analysts note significant contradictions between textual claims and visual evidence, suggesting possible propaganda exaggeration or "maskirovka" (1201Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW).
NORTHERN AIR THREAT ESCALATION: OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) have been detected entering Zhytomyr Oblast from the north, specifically targeting the Korosten and Malyn axes. This confirms a widening of the flight corridor from the previous Rivne detection (1201Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
KREMLIN-US BACKCHANNEL CONTACT: Kremlin Spokesman Peskov confirmed a direct contact occurred between Putin's aide (Ushakov) and US representatives following the Dmitriev-Miami negotiations (1137Z, Операция Z; 1140Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
DONETSK REAR AREA INSTABILITY: A critical security incident occurred in occupied Donetsk (Petrovsky district) where an individual armed with an AK-47 opened fire inside a supermarket. The shooter was reportedly neutralized by local "MVD" forces (1135Z, ТАСС; 1143Z, Mash на Донбассе; 1155Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
RF ECONOMIC MOBILIZATION SIGNALS: Prominent Russian academic Gennady Onishchenko has publicly proposed transitioning the RF workforce to a 6-day work week to support the state, citing "no health impacts" (1140Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
Huliaipole: The sector is currently the focus of intense Russian information operations. While the RF MoD and associated channels claim full control (1134Z, 1157Z), the lack of corroborated high-resolution visual evidence across all urban districts suggests the UAF may still hold pockets or the "capture" is a premature declaration to influence Western diplomatic cycles.
Social Infrastructure: Amidst the fighting, Ukrainian authorities in Zaporizhzhia are maintaining governance continuity, evidenced by the handover of a new family-type children's home in the city (1202Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA).
2. Northern/Western Sector:
Zhytomyr Axis: The presence of OWA-UAVs moving south from the northern border indicates a likely launch from Belarusian territory or a highly technical bypass of northern AD screens. Targets in Korosten and Malyn are critical rail and logistics nodes for Western aid.
3. Occupied Territories:
Donetsk (Petrovsky District): The supermarket shooting reflects persistent "rear-area friction." Whether the shooter was a disgruntled soldier or a civilian, the incident underscores the volatility and proliferation of small arms in the occupied Donbas.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Exploitation: RF forces are attempting to capitalize on the momentum from the Huliaipole breakthrough. The rapid claim of "full liberation" suggests a desire to collapse UAF morale in adjacent sectors (Orikhiv).
Diplomatic Manuevering: The confirmation of the Ushakov-US contact (1140Z) suggests Russia is actively pursuing a "dual-track" strategy: achieving maximum kinetic gains on the ground while offering "peace" frameworks to the US to induce Western hesitation.
Economic Readiness: Proposals for a 6-day work week (1140Z) and the expansion of veteran support (1141Z) indicate the Kremlin is preparing the domestic population for a protracted war of attrition throughout 2026.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile fire groups are currently engaged in Zhytomyr Oblast tracking the northern OWA-UAV swarm.
Civilian Sustainment: Volunteer networks continue to fill critical gaps. The "Kachalivski Spiders" have confirmed the delivery of over 800 camouflage nets to the front (1201Z, RBK-Ukraine). This community-led logistics remains vital as state procurement faces "drone friction" noted in the previous report.
Information environment / disinformation
Huliaipole "Capture" Narrative: This is the primary info-battlefield. ASSESSMENT: RF sources are likely overstating the speed of consolidation to create a "fait accompli" before any potential diplomatic ceasefire discussions.
Domestic Pacification: RF state media is actively debunking rumors of VPN fines (1152Z) and celebrity hospitalizations (1147Z) to maintain a veneer of domestic normalcy despite the 6-day work week proposals.
Aggressive PSYOPS: Russian Spetsnaz channels are circulating "aggressive" material (1158Z) aimed at degrading Ukrainian psychological resilience during the Huliaipole withdrawal.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to saturate Huliaipole with "flag-planting" videos while their tactical units attempt to push toward the T-0803 highway to outflank UAF positions to the west. OWA-UAV strikes on Zhytomyr will likely transition to energy infrastructure targets as night falls.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported Ushakov-US contact to demand a localized "Christmas truce" in the South, effectively freezing the front at Huliaipole while they consolidate the breakthrough and move reserves into the town for a spring offensive.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Huliaipole Ground Truth: Immediate satellite or high-altitude drone reconnaissance required to verify RF presence in Western Huliaipole. Are UAF units still engaged in urban combat or have they established a new FEBA west of the town?
(P2) Zhytomyr Vector: Identify if the drones in Zhytomyr (1201Z) originated from the 15th AA Brigade in Belarus or from mobile launchers in the Bryansk/Kursk regions.
(P3) US-Russia Contact Details: Determine the specific "talking points" of the Ushakov contact. Does this signal a shift in the RF's "peace-masking" strategy toward concrete territorial demands?
