SOUTHERN FRONT BREAKTHROUGH: Russian MoD and pro-Russian sources claim the capture of Kosovtsevo and 95% control of Huliaipole. RF forces reportedly advanced 4km deep along a 6km front (1129Z, 1132Z, 1134Z, Rybar/Colonelcassad/MoD Russia, MEDIUM).
RESIDENTIAL MISSILE STRIKE (UMAN): A confirmed Russian missile strike has impacted a residential area in Uman, causing significant damage and civilian distress (1126Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
WESTERN AIR THREAT EXPANSION: OWA-UAV (Shahed) activity detected over Dubrovytsia, Rivne Oblast, indicating a westward shift in loitering munition flight paths from previous southern concentrations (1107Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
SBU COUNTER-ASSASSINATION: Ukrainian Security Services successfully disrupted an assassination attempt targeting a GUR MO (Military Intelligence) officer, capturing the operative in the act (1118Z, Tsaplienko/SBU, HIGH).
UAF LOGISTICAL FRICTION: Frontline reports indicate that state-supplied drones require significant secondary modification and personal funding by units; additionally, 10th OGSHBr reports acute shortages of portable power (1121Z, 1128Z, Sternenko/CyberBoroshno, MEDIUM).
LEGISLATIVE WARTIME SHIFT: The Ukrainian Rada has officially initiated drafting legislation for holding elections under martial law conditions (1114Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
Huliaipole/Kosovtsevo: The situation has transitioned from an urban assault to a likely UAF withdrawal phase. RF "Vostok" grouping (37th Motorized Rifle Brigade) claims to have seized Kosovtsevo and 23 square kilometers of surrounding territory. Pro-Russian sources claim Huliaipole is 95% under RF control after a UAF battalion HQ was reportedly overrun, compromising localized tactical communications/intelligence (1132Z, 1134Z).
Rear Logistics: A shooting incident in a Donetsk supermarket suggests persistent instability and poor discipline among RF personnel in occupied rear areas (1126Z).
2. Western/Central Sector:
Uman: Targeted by missile fire. This strike, combined with the OWA-UAV detection in Rivne, suggests an effort to pin UAF air defenses away from the southern breakthrough point (1126Z).
Rivne Oblast: OWA-UAVs entered from the east toward Dubrovytsia, threatening GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) toward the Polish border (1107Z).
3. Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Internal RF Discipline: Emerging testimonies (e.g., Mikhail Pavlyuk) corroborate reports of "zeroing" (extrajudicial executions) of RF personnel by their own commanders, specifically within units containing former convicts, indicating a breakdown in traditional military law (1129Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action - Exploitation: Following the Huliaipole breakthrough, RF forces will likely attempt to pivot north to threaten the southern flank of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad defense line. The capture of Kosovtsevo provides a staging ground for deeper penetration into the Zaporizhzhia steppe.
Vulnerability - Discipline: Evidence of internal executions and supermarket shootings suggests that while the RF is achieving tactical gains, the quality of personnel and command-level ethics remains a critical weakness for long-term occupation stability.
Diplomatic Posturing: Russian officials (Peskov) are signaling openness to low-level dialogue with the US (following the Dmitriev-Miami trip), likely as a "peace-masking" maneuver to reduce Western urgency while RF makes kinetic gains (1115Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Intelligence Success: The neutralization of the GUR assassination plot demonstrates that SBU internal security remains robust despite high-tempo frontline operations (1118Z).
Special Operations: SBU "Alpha" units claim the cumulative destruction of over 500 RF AD systems, a metric that, if verified, explains the increasing efficacy of UAF deep-strike OWA-UAVs reported in the previous 24h (1129Z).
Resource Constraints: Tactical units (10th OGSHBr) are increasingly relying on crowdfunding for basic electronic sustainment (power banks) and drone optimization, suggesting a gap between central procurement and frontline technical requirements (1128Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Manpower Narratives: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad) are circulating claims that the SBU Academy is deploying cadets to the front. ASSESSMENT: Likely disinformation intended to project an image of UAF manpower exhaustion.
Domestic Anxiety: RF internal metrics suggest St. Petersburg has overtaken Moscow as the "most anxious city," potentially linked to the recent deep strikes on northern oil terminals (e.g., Temryuk/Orenburg from previous report) (1116Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF forces will consolidate the Huliaipole-Kosovtsevo sector, establishing a new FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area) while utilizing the "Vostok" group's momentum to launch reconnaissance-in-force toward neighboring settlements.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the breakthrough in Huliaipole to conduct a rapid mechanized push toward the N-15 highway, attempting to sever the primary supply artery between Zaporizhzhia and the southern Donbas front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Huliaipole Confirmation: Need BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) and SIGINT confirmation of UAF unit positions west of Huliaipole. Is the withdrawal orderly or a rout?
(P2) 10th OGSHBr Status: Determine if the request for power banks indicates a broader disruption of energy infrastructure in the Eastern sector.
(P3) Western Vector: Identify the launch site of the Rivne-bound OWA-UAVs to determine if RF has established new launch pads in Belarus or northern occupied territories.
