MISSILE INTERCEPT OVER CHERKASY: At 0931Z, UAF Air Defense successfully intercepted a high-speed missile target near Uman, Cherkasy Oblast, following a north-westerly flight path from Mykolaiv (0911Z, 0931Z, PS ZSU/Nikolaiv Vanek, HIGH).
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FOILED: The SBU apprehended an FSB operative "red-handed" in central Kyiv while attempting to assassinate a GUR (Military Intelligence) officer at a local establishment (0907Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
REPORTED FALL OF KOSOVTSEVO (UNCONFIRMED): Multiple Russian state sources and military correspondents claim the capture of Kosovtsevo in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Video evidence has been released, but UAF confirmation is pending (0911Z, 0919Z, 0922Z, TASS/Kotsnews, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA CASUALTIES: A Russian strike on the Zaporizhzhia district has resulted in one fatality and three injuries (0925Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH).
KUPYANSK KINETIC OVERVIEW: Pro-Russian sources released footage of a strike on a Ukrainian Point of Temporary Deployment (PVD) in Kupyansk-Uzlovyi, indicating continued heavy engagement in the sector despite the reported RF encirclement near Zapadne (0915Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL RF SECURITY ACTIVITY: The FSB claims to have detained a woman in Stavropol allegedly preparing a "terrorist act" against a Russian MoD officer (0921Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
Kinetic activity remains focused on unconventional warfare. The foiling of an FSB-led assassination in Kyiv highlights a persistent "Deep Rear" threat to UAF C2 and intelligence leadership. Symbolically, a monument to the "Baba Yaga" strike drone was unveiled in Vyshneve, signaling the entrenchment of drone culture in the national defense narrative (0906Z, ASTRA).
2. Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Donbas):
Kupyansk: While the previous sitrep noted a tactical collapse of RF units near Zapadne, new footage of strikes on Kupyansk-Uzlovyi suggests the RF is utilizing long-range assets (artillery or aviation) to disrupt UAF logistics and staging areas in the urban periphery.
Donbas: No significant changes reported in the last 30 minutes; previous reports of RF infantry infiltration in Myrnohrad remain the baseline.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: The sector is becoming the primary focus of RF offensive claims. The reported capture of Kosovtsevo (if verified) indicates an RF attempt to broaden the front and pressure UAF flanks.
Huliaipole: Combat is reportedly shifting to the western part of the city. RF "Vostok" group is heavily utilizing strike UAVs to interdict UAF reinforcements and supply lines (0923Z, Poddubny).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: The RF is currently executing a dual-track strategy: localized ground advances in Zaporizhzhia (Kosovtsevo) to offset tactical failures in Kupyansk, combined with a sustained missile/KAB campaign. The MoD briefing at 0933Z confirmed the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in a "mass strike" campaign over the past week, framing these as retaliatory (0933Z, Colonelcassad).
Hybrid Operations: Persistent use of targeted assassinations (Kyiv) and internal "counter-terror" narratives (Stavropol) suggests a heightened focus on decapitation strikes against UAF/GUR officers.
Logistics: RF sources emphasize the "Army of Drone Systems" in the Huliaipole sector, indicating a shift toward drone-heavy attrition to compensate for weather-restricted mechanized movement.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successful detection and engagement of a high-speed target (likely a cruise missile or Kh-59 variant) over Mykolaiv and Cherkasy oblasts. This confirms the continued viability of the integrated air defense network despite the recent volume of strikes.
Counter-Intelligence: High-value success in neutralizing an FSB cell in the capital. This suggests robust surveillance of high-risk personnel and venues.
Information Operations: Leveraging cultural icons (Baba Yaga monument) to maintain domestic morale during a period of infrastructure strain and weather-related hardship.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Domestic Friction: An internal controversy has emerged in Russia regarding the new 1000-ruble banknote. Patriarch Kirill and ultra-nationalist channels (e.g., Alex Parker) are criticizing the removal of Orthodox crosses and religious symbols in favor of secular imagery (0914Z, 0920Z, Alex Parker/TASS). This highlights a potential fracture between the secular state administration and the conservative/religious base.
Anti-Ukrainian Narratives: Pro-Russian Finnish sources are circulating videos alleging the destruction of Orthodox churches by "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine (0919Z, Janus Putkonen). This supports the ongoing RF narrative of a "holy war" and serves to distract from the domestic currency controversy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued missile and guided bomb (KAB) strikes targeting Central and Southern Ukraine. RF will attempt to consolidate the reported gain in Kosovtsevo to establish a new defensive line before UAF can counter-attack.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A surge in "hit-squad" activity or sabotage in Kyiv targeting the energy sector or military leadership to exploit the "pre-New Year" period and high civilian density.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Kosovtsevo Verification: Urgent requirement for GEOINT/SIGINT to confirm RF presence in Kosovtsevo. Is this a permanent capture or a transient raid?
(P2) Missile BDA: Confirm if the explosion heard in Uman (0935Z) was the result of a successful intercept (debris falling) or a secondary impact.
(P3) Assassination Network: Determine if the apprehended killer in Kyiv was part of a larger dormant cell activated for the holiday period.
